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749
ACUS01 KWNS 181609
SWODY1
SPC AC 181608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ONTO THE WEST COAST AND THEN INLAND...BUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THAT ACTIVITY.  DAMAGING WIND IS THE
MAIN HAZARD...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL
MAY OCCUR.

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH SAT. ANY SVR WEATHER THREAT SHOULD OCCUR WITH LEAD
SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT ATTM IS OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE E TO THE NERN GULF BY 12Z SAT...WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION
LIKELY AS JET STREAK NOW OVER LA CONTINUES E AND THEN SE INTO THE
BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE SYSTEM.

AT LWR LVLS...WEAK SFC WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF CST
TROUGH...NOW CENTERED S OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...SHOULD REDEVELOP
SLOWLY E ALONG ASSOCIATED WARM/STNRY FRONT INTO THE NERN GULF BY
EARLY TNGT. THIS LOW SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FL
PENINSULA EARLY SAT AS TRAILING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL SQLN MOVE
ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE STATE. ANY SVR WEATHER THREAT THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE CONFINED TO STORMS WITHIN THE SQLN...AND TO ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF IT LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT.

...FL PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
LIGHTNING AND...MORE RECENTLY...RADAR DATA SHOW LONG-LIVED
PRE-FRONTAL SQLN MOVING E ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 30
KTS. THE SQLN SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA
LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT...WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATION CONTINUING TO BE
FOSTERED BY /1/ MOISTURE-RICH SSELY LOW-LVL FLOW AND /2/ STEADY EWD
PROGRESSION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.

THE SQLN LINE WILL REMAIN WELL E OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. BUT
SUFFICIENT /40 TO 50 KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER FL
GIVEN CURRENT VWP DATA TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR SMALL BOWS/LEWPS WITH
DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. AND...WHILE SFC HEATING WILL BE
MODEST BY APRIL STANDARDS GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUDS...COMBINATION OF
EVEN MODEST LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND/OR ALONG DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MAY SUPPORT A
FEW DISCRETE CELLS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT OVER N CNTRL AND E
CNTRL PARTS OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A PERSISTENT ELY
COMPONENT TO THE NEAR-SFC FLOW AS THE MAIN SFC LOW REMAINS OVER THE
NERN GULF...ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE A CONDITIONAL RISK
FOR A TORNADO...IN ADDITION TO SVR HAIL.

WHILE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SVR WEATHER SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTN
THROUGH EARLY TNGT OVER CNTRL AND NRN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...A
MORE LIMITED SVR WEATHER RISK WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY SAT OVER THE
SERN PART OF THE STATE AS THE MAIN UPR TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION/COLD FRONT CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/18/2014





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