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ACUS01 KWNS 261238
SWODY1
SPC AC 261237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S. TODAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FCST THROUGH PERIOD...WITH
RIDGING MOVING EWD ACROSS ROCKIES AS CUTOFF CYCLONE NOW W OF BAJA
WEAKENS INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AND BEGINS TO TURN NEWD...REACHING CA
COAST AROUND END OF PERIOD.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN ERN-CONUS CYCLONIC-FLOW FIELD WILL EVOLVE INTO WELL-DEFINED
500-MB CYCLONE COVERING MID ATLC AND ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS BY 12Z.

AT SFC...LOW ANALYZED AT 11Z OVER SRN WV/SWRN VA...IS FCST TO WEAKEN
AS NEWER CYCLONE ANALYZED INVOF NERN NC OUTER BANKS.  THAT LOW...IN
TURN...WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY AND ARC NEWD OVER ATLC WATERS
OFFSHORE NJ/LONG ISLAND BY 12Z.  IN ITS WAKE...AIR MASS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF CONUS WILL BE TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR TSTMS.

...COASTAL MID ATLC TO NEW ENGLAND...
GIVEN FCST STRENGTH OF VARIOUS CONTRIBUTIONS TO LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...SUFFICIENT
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ISOLATED LTG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SOMEWHERE WITHIN NERN NJ-NERN MA CORRIDOR AS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
BECOMES WELL-ORGANIZED DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD.  FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST VERY WEAK CAPE AT MOST -- LESS THAN 100 J/KG -- ROOTED
BETWEEN 650-750 MB BUT SPORADICALLY TOUCHING LAYERS COLDER THAN -20
DEG C.  THUNDERSNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
MRGL...BRIEF AND CONDITIONAL ON MESOBETA-SCALE PROCESSES TO ASSIGN
10%/GEN AREA ATTM.

REF WPC HEAVY-SNOW PRODUCTS AND WATCHES/WARNINGS FROM LOCAL NWS
OFFICES FOR MORE INFO ON WINTER-STORM THREAT TO THIS REGION.

..EDWARDS/PICCA.. 01/26/2015





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