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865
ACUS01 KWNS 310443
SWODY1
SPC AC 310441

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-DAY ACROSS DEEP
S TX AMIDST A LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY DRY TRAJECTORIES/NLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SPRAWLING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SERN
STATES...WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT OVERSPREADING RELATIVELY WARMER WATER
TEMPS OVER LAKE MI AS THE OVER-LAKE FETCH LENGTH INCREASES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL ENCOURAGE DEEPENING OF A
LAKE-ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH RELATED CAPE
EXTENDING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO ICING LAYERS ALOFT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID-LAKE SWD TO NWRN INDIANA. ALSO...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ADVANCING THROUGH THE
AMPLIFYING CYCLONIC FLOW AMIDST SCANT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE.

OVER THE WRN STATES...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL
COOLING WILL SUPPORT MEAGER BUOYANCY AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DIURNALLY ENHANCED
OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION SWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AS MODEST
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AFFECT THIS REGION AMIDST ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CONUS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

..COHEN/KERR.. 10/31/2014





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