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332
ACUS01 KWNS 310101
SWODY1
SPC AC 310100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
UNTIL AROUND MID EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER A PART OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON THIS
EVENING.

...CNTRL OK THROUGH NCNTRL TX...

CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH CNTRL AND SCNTRL OK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SEWD MOVING VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT NE-SW
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NORTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NCNTRL TX WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
VERY MOIST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...BUT WHERE CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE
RATES HAVE RESULTED IN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 400-800 J/KG. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES...AND A COUPLE OF STORMS
HAVE EXHIBITED MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THREAT FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
EVENING AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SEWD INTO SRN OK AND NCTNRL TX...BUT
OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

...NWRN THROUGH SWRN TX...

OTHER STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG SWRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT ACROSS
NWRN THROUGH SWRN TX WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DIABATIC WARMING AND
DEEPER MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF
1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. THESE STORMS ARE HIGH BASED AND EXIST WITHIN
A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT WILL POSE A MODEST THREAT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING.

...ERN NM...

MOSTLY HIGH BASED STORMS SPREADING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH MID-EVENING.

...WRN OR...

A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE DEEPLY MIXED BUT
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WRN OREGON AHEAD OF A NWD
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT 2-3 HOURS...BUT COVERAGE OF ANY
SUCH EVENTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SPARSE.

..DIAL.. 07/31/2014





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