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467
ACUS01 KWNS 231630
SWODY1
SPC AC 231629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE NE
GULF COAST TO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AL TO PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
STATES. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH PARTS OF GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LA THIS MORNING WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD
TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TONIGHT...AS AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK
OVER NM TRANSLATES EWD TO THE MID SOUTH.  A SURFACE CYCLONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NM JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE KS/OK
BORDER TO MO TODAY...AND THEN NEWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
BY EARLY MONDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD FROM THE WRN
PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY.

...NE GULF COAST AREA TODAY...
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A MARITIME TROPICAL
AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD TO NEAR THE NE GULF COAST.  SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY WILL SPREAD INLAND WITH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ZONE OF ASCENT WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPREAD AWAY FROM THE NE GULF COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THROUGH ABOUT
21-00Z...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REMNANT COLD
POOL FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW/N CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AND IN THE WAA REGIME ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA.
OBSERVED HODOGRAPHS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE TRENDED TO MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW AOA 50 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS
THE RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON.

...SE GA TO THE ERN CAROLINAS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A COOL CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY ERODE ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS
TODAY AND BE REPLACED BY A MODIFYING SW ATLANTIC AIR MASS LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WARMING/MOISTENING WILL OCCUR WITHIN A STRONG
WAA REGIME WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUCH THAT ROTATING STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY DEVELOPS
INLAND.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A
TORNADO WILL BE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS...LIKELY WITH
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN ONE OR MORE CONFLUENCE BANDS EMANATING FROM
THE GULF STREAM.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 11/23/2014





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