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343
ACUS48 KWNS 200838
SWOD48
SPC AC 200838

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
CONTINUATION IN AN OVERALL QUIESCENT PATTERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  PERHAPS AN INCREASE FROM
NEGLIGIBLE TO MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY BEGIN THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL VARIABILITY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

AN EXPANSIVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC FRIDAY-SATURDAY.  MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. BY
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW
STATES.  GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
ADVANCES POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO POTENTIAL LEE TROUGHING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY.

..SMITH.. 10/20/2014




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