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494
ACUS48 KWNS 190829
SWOD48
SPC AC 190828

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF
THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK...MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MEANDERING. STRONGER UPPER RIDGING AND
LARGE-SCALE DOWNWARD MOTION WILL MOSTLY LIKELY EXIST OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. THROUGH D6/WED...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO
UPPER MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AMIDST DEEPER MOISTURE. BACKGROUND ASCENT WITH BOTH OF
THESE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DAILY BOUTS OF
PULSE/POORLY-ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND
SHEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE-WEATHER DEVELOPMENT.

..CARBIN.. 09/19/2014




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