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487
ACUS48 KWNS 020827
SWOD48
SPC AC 020826

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF/GFS BOTH AGREE THAT UPPER GREAT LAKES SPEED MAX WILL EJECT
ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD...WELL NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL FORCE A SFC FRONT
INTO NY...WHILE A MUCH WEAKER BOUNDARY SHOULD TRAIL ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS WIND SHIFT BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LAG THE
FRONTAL ZONE SUCH THAT TSTMS THAT EVOLVE SHOULD BE MORE
MULTI-CELLULAR IN NATURE AND POSSIBLY LESS ORGANIZED.  BEYOND THE
DAY4 PERIOD...MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY WILL BE DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERE PREDICTABILITY WILL LESSON
CONSIDERABLY.

..DARROW.. 09/02/2014




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