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ACUS48 KWNS 010838
SWOD48
SPC AC 010837

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2014

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS /SPECIFICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF/ APPEAR TO BE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 6 /THU. 11-7/...AFTER WHICH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES EMERGE WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS.

FOCUSING ON THE DAY 4-6 TIME PERIOD...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
INTO THE NERN U.S./ERN CANADA THROUGH DAY 4...AND THEN LINGER THERE
AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES -- WITHIN
CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE INITIAL TROUGH -- SERVES TO
REINFORCE LONGER-WAVELENGTH TROUGHING OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE
INITIAL TROUGH INTO THE ERN U.S. -- WEAKENS WITH TIME...A LACK OF
CAPE WILL PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN MOST AREAS.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX VICINITY DAY 4...AND
THEN EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BROADER AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AS THE SECONDARY UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL AND INTO THE NERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DAYS 5-6 AND
REINFORCES THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD...AN ACCOMPANYING
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION.  HOWEVER...WITH A
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..GOSS.. 11/01/2014




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