000
ACUS48 KWNS 240933
SWOD48
SPC AC 240932

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE WITH THE BUCKLING OF THE FLOW
OVER THE WRN STATES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
DECEMBER.  MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE DAY 6-8 RANGE /SUN-TUE
29 NOV-1 DEC/ INTRODUCE SIZABLE VARIANCE WITH PERHAPS THE ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC/MEANS OFFERING THE MOST CONSISTENCY.  EXPECT THAT THE
MINOR SRN STREAM WAVE THAT EJECTS ACROSS TX LATE THIS WEEK WILL
PRIME THE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN.  THEN...AS A STRONG
UPR LOW DIGS OVER THE DESERT SW SAT-SUN...A STRONGER ADVECTION OF
MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR INTO THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS/TSTMS.  AS THE UPR LOW BEGINS TO PEAK AND
BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY-TILTED OVER THE SRN PLNS ON THE 1
DEC...PERHAPS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FLOW
WILL CO-EXIST FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GULF CST INTO THE
LWR MS VLY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODELS AT THIS POINT IN TIME...A HIGHER-END SVR OUTLOOK IS NOT
JUSTIFIED.

..RACY.. 11/24/2009