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662
UXUS97 KGJT 261331
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0631 MST Wednesday, November 26, 2014

This forecast is for Wednesday, November 26, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 53.6 F/12.0 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 236 ft/min (1.2 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 8115 ft MSL (3276 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 50.0 F/10.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 6424 ft MSL (1585 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 11/27..... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:09:20 / 16:53:37 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 44 min 16 sec (584 min 16 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:01:37 MST... 29.91 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 11/26/2014 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 5012 ft MSL (173 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 8755 ft MSL (3916 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 16907 ft MSL (12068 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 12019 ft MSL (7180 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +14.3
K index......................... +13.3

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -62.1 -79.8   315   77   40  -3.2  -1.8   98.4 209.1    50.2      M    M
 45000  -64.4 -83.9   320   83   43   1.4   0.7   69.6 157.2    36.3      M    M
 40000  -60.9 -77.6   320   92   48  -3.5  -1.9   51.9 125.5    27.4      M    M
 38000  -59.7 -75.5   320   75   38   7.1   3.9   43.7 110.7    22.7      M    M
 36000  -55.4 -67.7   320   72   37   6.9   3.8   41.4 106.5    21.7      M    M
 34000  -49.9 -57.8   320   74   38   8.9   4.9   40.7 105.2    21.8      M    M
 32000  -44.6 -48.3   320   73   38   8.9   4.9   40.0 104.0    21.9      M    M
 30000  -39.2 -38.6   320   73   38   9.1   5.0   39.6 103.3    22.1      M    M
 29000  -36.7 -34.1   320   70   36   7.8   4.3   39.0 102.2    21.9      M    M
 28000  -34.3 -29.7   315   68   35   6.5   3.6   38.3 100.9    21.7      M    M
 27000  -32.8 -27.0   320   68   35   6.9   3.8   36.5  97.7    20.5      M    M
 26000  -30.4 -22.7   320   68   35   8.0   4.4   35.8  96.4    20.2      M    M
 25000  -28.0 -18.4   325   68   35   8.1   4.4   35.2  95.4    20.0      M    M
 24000  -25.6 -14.1   325   65   33   7.7   4.2   34.5  94.1    19.7      M    M
 23000  -23.3  -9.9   325   66   34   7.7   4.2   33.6  92.6    19.2      M    M
 22000  -21.0  -5.8   325   66   34   7.8   4.3   32.9  91.3    18.8      M    M
 21000  -19.3  -2.7   325   66   34   0.6   0.3   31.5  88.8    17.8      M    M
 20000  -18.3  -0.9   325   67   35   4.0   2.2   28.4  83.2    15.4      M    M
 19500  -17.5   0.5   330   69   36   4.7   2.6   27.6  81.6    14.8      M    M
 19000  -16.7   1.9   330   70   36   6.7   3.7   26.8  80.3    14.2      M    M
 18500  -15.6   3.9   330   67   34   7.0   3.8   26.4  79.5    13.9      M    M
 18000  -14.5   5.9   330   64   33   4.6   2.5   26.0  78.7    13.7      M    M
 17500  -14.6   5.7   330   56   29   2.2   1.2   24.2  75.5    12.1      M    M
 17000  -13.7   7.3   330   49   25   6.0   3.3   23.5  74.4    11.6      M    M
 16500  -12.8   9.0   325   41   21   6.0   3.3   23.0  73.3    11.1      M    M
 16000  -12.6   9.3   325   35   18   0.8   0.4   21.5  70.8     9.9      M    M
 15500  -12.1  10.2   330   33   17   3.4   1.9   20.5  69.0     9.1      M    M
 15000  -11.3  11.7   335   31   16   7.4   4.1   19.8  67.6     8.4      M    M
 14500  -10.2  13.6   340   29   15   7.9   4.3   19.5  67.1     8.2      M    M
 14000   -9.0  15.8   345   28   14   7.9   4.3   19.2  66.6     7.9      M    M
 13500   -7.8  18.0   335   26   13   7.9   4.4   18.9  66.0     7.7      M    M
 13000   -6.7  19.9   325   25   13   7.9   4.4   18.6  65.5     7.4      M    M
 12500   -5.5  22.1   320   23   12   8.0   4.4   18.3  64.9     7.2      M    M
 12000   -4.3  24.3   310   22   11   8.8   4.8   18.0  64.4     6.9      M    M
 11500   -3.7  25.3   305   23   12  -3.9  -2.2   17.1  62.7     6.1      M    M
 11000   -4.2  24.4   305   24   12   1.5   0.8   15.1  59.1     4.2      M    M
 10500   -3.3  26.1   300   25   13   9.2   5.0   14.4  57.9     3.6      M    M
 10250   -2.7  27.1   300   25   13   8.2   4.5   14.3  57.8     3.5      M    M
 10000   -2.1  28.2   295   23   12   7.9   4.4   14.2  57.5     3.4      M    M
  9750   -1.5  29.3   285   22   12   6.9   3.8   14.0  57.2     3.2      M    M
  9500   -1.1  30.0   275   23   12   4.8   2.6   13.7  56.7     2.9      M    M
  9250   -0.7  30.7   265   23   12   4.6   2.5   13.3  55.9     2.6      M    M
  9000   -0.4  31.3   255   25   13   4.4   2.4   12.9  55.2     2.2      M    M
  8750   -0.0  32.0   255   23   12   5.3   2.9   12.5  54.5     1.8      M    M
  8500    0.3  32.5   255   21   11   1.8   1.0   12.1  53.7     1.4      M    M
  8250    0.2  32.4   250   19   10  -4.2  -2.3   11.2  52.1     0.6      M    M
  8000    0.1  32.2   250   17    9   1.9   1.1   10.2  50.4    -0.2    235  1.2
  7750    0.5  32.9   250   14    7   7.3   4.0    9.9  49.9    -0.5    214  1.1
  7500    1.0  33.8   250   10    5   5.8   3.2    9.6  49.4    -0.8    193  1.0
  7250    1.5  34.7   250    7    3   6.3   3.4    9.4  48.9    -1.1    171  0.9
  7000    1.9  35.4   245    3    1   5.8   3.2    9.1  48.4    -1.3    150  0.8
  6750    2.4  36.3   205    1    1   7.2   4.0    8.8  47.9    -1.6    129  0.7
  6500    2.7  36.9   150    2    1  -5.9  -3.3    8.3  47.0    -2.1    113  0.6
  6250    1.8  35.2   130    3    2 -10.6  -5.8    6.6  43.9    -3.7    133  0.7
  6000    1.5  34.7   120    5    2  -1.6  -0.9    5.6  42.0    -4.8    135  0.7
  5750    1.3  34.3   115    5    2  -2.3  -1.3    4.7  40.4    -5.7    133  0.7
  5500    1.1  34.0   115    4    2  -3.0  -1.7    3.7  38.7    -6.6    131  0.7
  5250    0.9  33.6   110    4    2   0.5   0.3    2.8  37.1    -7.5    129  0.7
  5000    0.9  33.6   100    4    2  -5.7  -3.1    2.1  35.8    -8.3    122  0.6

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           11/26/2014 at 0800 MST          |       11/26/2014 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +7.6  LI... +6.1                | K index... +5.8  LI... +6.4
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.7                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.8 -86.4  315  46 24  -0.2  -0.1 | -67.4 -89.3  310  53 27   0.5   0.3
 45000 -65.9 -86.6  320  90 46   1.7   0.9 | -66.5 -87.7  320  81 42   2.8   1.5
 40000 -63.6 -82.5  320  71 37   1.7   0.9 | -62.5 -80.5  320  61 31   2.8   1.5
 38000 -59.8 -75.6  325  68 35   8.3   4.5 | -58.8 -73.8  320  58 30   7.5   4.1
 36000 -54.9 -66.8  325  66 34   8.3   4.5 | -54.3 -65.7  315  57 30   7.5   4.1
 34000 -49.8 -57.6  325  64 33   8.6   4.7 | -48.8 -55.8  315  57 29   8.8   4.8
 32000 -44.0 -47.2  325  64 33   8.6   4.7 | -43.6 -46.5  315  57 29   8.8   4.8
 30000 -39.0 -38.2  325  65 33   8.1   4.5 | -38.8 -37.8  320  57 29   7.1   3.9
 29000 -36.6 -33.9  330  66 34   8.1   4.5 | -36.7 -34.1  325  57 29   7.1   3.9
 28000 -34.2 -29.6  330  67 34   8.1   4.4 | -34.5 -30.1  330  58 30   7.1   3.9
 27000 -31.9 -25.4  330  68 35   6.5   3.6 | -32.4 -26.3  335  59 30   6.8   3.7
 26000 -30.0 -22.0  335  69 35   6.6   3.6 | -30.4 -22.7  335  60 31   6.8   3.7
 25000 -28.0 -18.4  340  70 36   6.6   3.6 | -28.3 -18.9  335  61 31   6.8   3.8
 24000 -26.0 -14.8  340  70 36   7.2   4.0 | -26.3 -15.3  340  61 31   7.2   4.0
 23000 -23.8 -10.8  340  70 36   7.2   3.9 | -24.2 -11.6  340  59 30   7.2   3.9
 22000 -21.7  -7.1  340  70 36   7.2   3.9 | -22.0  -7.6  340  56 29   7.2   3.9
 21000 -19.7  -3.5  340  68 35   6.0   3.3 | -20.0  -4.0  340  54 28   6.5   3.6
 20000 -17.9  -0.2  340  62 32   6.0   3.3 | -18.0  -0.4  335  52 27   6.5   3.6
 19500 -17.0   1.4  335  60 31   6.1   3.3 | -16.6   2.1  335  51 26   6.5   3.6
 19000 -15.7   3.7  335  55 28   5.8   3.2 | -15.6   3.9  330  50 26   7.2   3.9
 18500 -14.8   5.4  335  50 26   5.4   3.0 | -14.5   5.9  330  51 26   7.5   4.1
 18000 -14.0   6.8  335  45 23   5.5   3.0 | -13.4   7.9  330  51 26   7.6   4.2
 17500 -13.3   8.1  335  42 22   5.1   2.8 | -12.3   9.9  330  50 26   6.4   3.5
 17000 -12.5   9.5  335  41 21   5.1   2.8 | -11.4  11.5  330  48 25   6.5   3.6
 16500 -11.7  10.9  335  40 21   5.9   3.2 | -10.4  13.3  330  47 24   5.9   3.2
 16000 -10.8  12.6  340  40 21   6.2   3.4 |  -9.6  14.7  335  47 24   5.7   3.1
 15500  -9.9  14.2  340  40 21   5.9   3.2 |  -8.7  16.3  335  46 24   5.3   2.9
 15000  -9.1  15.6  340  39 20   4.9   2.7 |  -8.0  17.6  340  44 23   4.6   2.5
 14500  -8.4  16.9  340  39 20   5.0   2.7 |  -7.3  18.9  340  41 21   4.7   2.6
 14000  -7.6  18.3  340  36 19   5.4   3.0 |  -6.6  20.1  340  39 20   5.0   2.8
 13500  -6.9  19.6  340  33 17   5.2   2.9 |  -5.9  21.4  345  37 19   5.0   2.8
 13000  -6.0  21.2  340  30 16   7.1   3.9 |  -5.0  23.0  345  34 17   6.1   3.4
 12500  -5.0  23.0  340  28 14   7.3   4.0 |  -4.1  24.6  345  31 16   6.1   3.3
 12000  -4.2  24.4  335  24 13   3.7   2.0 |  -3.3  26.1  345  28 14   5.7   3.1
 11500  -3.6  25.5  325  21 11   3.9   2.1 |  -2.4  27.7  340  24 12   5.8   3.2
 11000  -3.0  26.6  320  20 10   4.7   2.6 |  -1.7  28.9  335  21 11   4.4   2.4
 10500  -2.4  27.7  310  21 11   4.8   2.6 |  -1.1  30.0  330  19 10   4.5   2.5
 10250  -2.1  28.2  310  22 11   2.8   1.5 |  -0.8  30.6  330  18  9   2.2   1.2
 10000  -2.0  28.4  310  22 11   1.9   1.0 |  -0.8  30.6  325  17  9   1.1   0.6
  9750  -1.8  28.8  305  22 11   3.7   2.0 |  -0.6  30.9  320  17  9   2.5   1.3
  9500  -1.5  29.3  305  22 11   3.5   1.9 |  -0.5  31.1  315  17  9   2.1   1.2
  9250  -1.3  29.7  300  22 11   1.8   1.0 |  -0.4  31.3  310  17  9   1.2   0.6
  9000  -1.2  29.8  300  21 11   0.9   0.5 |  -0.4  31.3  310  16  8   0.8   0.4
  8750  -1.1  30.0  300  19 10   1.8   1.0 |  -0.3  31.5  305  16  8   1.2   0.7
  8500  -1.0  30.2  295  17  9   2.0   1.1 |  -0.3  31.5  300  15  8   0.2   0.1
  8250  -0.9  30.4  290  15  8   1.9   1.0 |  -0.3  31.5  300  13  7  -0.9  -0.5
  8000  -0.7  30.7  290  13  7   1.6   0.9 |  -0.4  31.3  295  11  6  -1.0  -0.6
  7750  -0.6  30.9  285  11  6   2.8   1.5 |  -0.4  31.3  290   9  5   0.0   0.0
  7500  -0.3  31.5  280   9  5   4.9   2.7 |  -0.3  31.5  280   7  3   3.6   2.0
  7250   0.1  32.2  275   8  4   5.2   2.9 |   0.1  32.2  265   5  3   5.4   2.9
  7000   0.6  33.1  275   7  4   5.4   2.9 |   0.4  32.7  245   4  2   4.4   2.4
  6750   1.0  33.8  270   6  3   4.6   2.5 |   0.8  33.4  215   3  2   6.9   3.8
  6500   1.3  34.3  260   5  3   3.1   1.7 |   1.5  34.7  205   3  2   8.9   4.9
  6250   1.5  34.7  235   4  2   4.3   2.3 |   2.1  35.8  200   3  2   7.9   4.3
  6000   1.8  35.2  205   4  2  -0.1  -0.1 |   2.7  36.9  190   4  2   9.0   5.0
  5750   1.3  34.3  185   5  3 -13.3  -7.3 |   3.6  38.5  190   4  2  13.6   7.5
  5500  -0.1  31.8  160   4  2 -21.9 -12.0 |   4.8  40.6  190   3  2  18.6  10.2
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           11/26/2014 at 1400 MST          |       11/26/2014 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +0.9  LI... +7.5                | K index... -12.8  LI... +7.2
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... 0.0                    | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -68.1 -90.6  315  59 31   0.9   0.5 | -68.0 -90.4  315  50 26   1.0   0.6
 45000 -66.4 -87.5  315  74 38   4.0   2.2 | -66.0 -86.8  315  60 31   4.0   2.2
 40000 -60.5 -76.9  320  62 32   4.0   2.2 | -60.1 -76.2  315  52 27   4.0   2.2
 38000 -56.9 -70.4  315  57 29   6.6   3.6 | -56.4 -69.5  310  51 26   6.7   3.7
 36000 -52.5 -62.5  310  51 26   6.6   3.6 | -51.9 -61.4  310  49 25   6.7   3.7
 34000 -48.2 -54.8  310  49 25   7.8   4.3 | -47.9 -54.2  310  49 25   6.7   3.7
 32000 -43.5 -46.3  310  48 25   7.8   4.3 | -43.9 -47.0  315  48 25   6.7   3.7
 30000 -39.1 -38.4  315  46 24   6.9   3.8 | -39.6 -39.3  315  48 25   7.5   4.1
 29000 -37.0 -34.6  320  45 23   6.9   3.8 | -37.4 -35.3  315  48 25   7.5   4.1
 28000 -35.0 -31.0  325  44 23   6.9   3.8 | -35.1 -31.2  320  48 25   7.5   4.1
 27000 -32.8 -27.0  330  45 23   7.9   4.3 | -32.8 -27.0  320  47 24   8.3   4.5
 26000 -30.4 -22.7  330  46 24   7.9   4.3 | -30.3 -22.5  320  45 23   8.3   4.6
 25000 -28.0 -18.4  330  48 25   7.9   4.3 | -27.8 -18.0  325  44 22   8.3   4.6
 24000 -25.7 -14.3  335  49 25   7.5   4.1 | -25.5 -13.9  325  44 23   6.8   3.7
 23000 -23.5 -10.3  335  51 26   7.5   4.1 | -23.4 -10.1  330  48 25   6.9   3.8
 22000 -21.3  -6.3  335  53 28   7.5   4.1 | -21.3  -6.3  330  53 27   6.9   3.8
 21000 -19.2  -2.6  335  55 28   6.3   3.5 | -18.7  -1.7  335  54 28   6.6   3.6
 20000 -16.8   1.8  335  55 28   6.3   3.5 | -16.8   1.8  335  53 27   6.6   3.6
 19500 -15.9   3.4  335  55 28   6.3   3.5 | -15.8   3.6  335  52 27   6.6   3.6
 19000 -14.9   5.2  335  55 28   7.1   3.9 | -14.7   5.5  335  52 27   7.4   4.0
 18500 -13.8   7.2  335  53 28   7.5   4.1 | -13.6   7.5  335  51 26   7.7   4.2
 18000 -12.6   9.3  335  52 27   7.5   4.1 | -12.4   9.7  335  49 25   7.6   4.2
 17500 -11.6  11.1  335  50 26   6.5   3.6 | -11.4  11.5  335  47 24   6.4   3.5
 17000 -10.6  12.9  335  48 25   6.6   3.6 | -10.4  13.3  335  45 23   6.5   3.6
 16500  -9.7  14.5  335  46 24   5.7   3.1 |  -9.5  14.9  330  43 22   5.7   3.1
 16000  -8.9  16.0  335  44 23   5.6   3.1 |  -8.6  16.5  330  41 21   5.6   3.0
 15500  -8.0  17.6  335  42 22   5.5   3.0 |  -7.8  18.0  330  38 20   5.5   3.0
 15000  -7.2  19.0  335  40 21   5.5   3.0 |  -7.0  19.4  330  36 19   5.5   3.0
 14500  -6.4  20.5  335  38 19   5.4   3.0 |  -6.2  20.8  325  35 18   5.8   3.2
 14000  -5.7  21.7  330  35 18   5.1   2.8 |  -5.2  22.6  325  33 17   6.9   3.8
 13500  -4.9  23.2  330  31 16   5.1   2.8 |  -4.2  24.4  325  32 16   6.8   3.7
 13000  -4.1  24.6  330  29 15   5.2   2.9 |  -3.3  26.1  325  30 16   6.1   3.4
 12500  -3.4  25.9  330  27 14   5.3   2.9 |  -2.4  27.7  325  29 15   6.2   3.4
 12000  -2.6  27.3  325  24 12   4.7   2.6 |  -1.7  28.9  325  27 14   3.6   2.0
 11500  -1.9  28.6  320  21 11   4.7   2.6 |  -1.2  29.8  320  26 13   3.9   2.1
 11000  -1.1  30.0  320  19 10   6.2   3.4 |  -0.7  30.7  320  24 12   3.2   1.8
 10500  -0.2  31.6  315  19 10   5.9   3.2 |  -0.2  31.6  315  22 11   3.1   1.7
 10250   0.1  32.2  315  19 10   2.4   1.3 |  -0.1  31.8  315  21 11   1.1   0.6
 10000   0.2  32.4  315  18  9   1.5   0.8 |  -0.1  31.8  315  21 11   0.0   0.0
  9750   0.4  32.7  310  18  9   4.1   2.2 |  -0.1  31.8  315  20 10   0.6   0.3
  9500   0.6  33.1  310  18  9   3.2   1.7 |  -0.1  31.8  310  18  9   0.5   0.3
  9250   0.8  33.4  310  17  9   1.1   0.6 |  -0.2  31.6  310  16  8   0.2   0.1
  9000   0.8  33.4  310  16  8   0.4   0.2 |  -0.2  31.6  305  13  7   0.4   0.2
  8750   0.8  33.4  305  15  8   0.6   0.3 |  -0.2  31.6  295  10  5   0.4   0.2
  8500   0.8  33.4  305  13  7   0.1   0.0 |  -0.1  31.8  275   8  4   4.0   2.2
  8250   0.7  33.3  305  10  5  -0.1  -0.1 |   0.4  32.7  270   7  3   7.2   3.9
  8000   0.7  33.3  295   8  4  -0.6  -0.3 |   0.9  33.6  260   6  3   6.2   3.4
  7750   0.7  33.3  280   5  3   1.4   0.8 |   1.4  34.5  245   6  3   8.0   4.4
  7500   0.9  33.6  240   3  2   6.0   3.3 |   2.0  35.6  230   5  3   7.2   3.9
  7250   1.5  34.7  225   3  1   7.6   4.2 |   2.4  36.3  220   5  3   5.3   2.9
  7000   2.0  35.6  205   2  1   6.8   3.8 |   2.9  37.2  205   5  3   5.7   3.1
  6750   2.5  36.5  185   2  1   8.2   4.5 |   3.3  37.9  195   6  3   5.6   3.1
  6500   3.2  37.8  185   2  1   9.9   5.4 |   3.7  38.7  185   5  3   6.1   3.4
  6250   4.0  39.2  180   2  1   9.8   5.4 |   4.1  39.4  175   5  3   5.7   3.1
  6000   4.7  40.5  175   2  1  10.0   5.5 |   4.6  40.3  165   6  3   7.5   4.1
  5750   5.5  41.9  170   2  1  13.0   7.1 |   5.1  41.2  160   6  3   3.4   1.9
  5500   6.7  44.1  170   2  1  17.4   9.6 |   4.9  40.8  150   5  2  -9.2  -5.0
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613




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NOAA National Weather Service
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
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Page last modified: May 16, 2007
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