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977
TXUS20 KNES 301332
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/30/14 1331Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1315Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1055Z NASA TRMM:1046Z
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LOCATION...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...E TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...VERY HIGH MOISTURE AND CONSOLIDATION OF THAT MOISTURE WITH
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH IN WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FOR INCREASED AND EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE COLD CLOUD TOPS/HVY
RAIN CENTERED ON SW TO C LA...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING AND
EXPANDING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO INTO SW TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME HAS FURTHER ORGANIZED MORE S TO NORTH IN
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY SHARPER TROUGH COMING
IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AS PER GOES WATER VAPOR LOOP.
MOISTURE PLUME THAT FEATURES VALUES CLOSE TO 2.8" IN THE EXT WESTERN GULF
AND INTO SW LOUISIANA ARE EXTRAORDINARY FOR ANY TIME OF THE YEAR AND WERE
CLOSE TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE AUGUST AND WERE THAT
HIGH BECAUSE OF SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT GOT PINCHED OFF FROM
THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM MARIE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO AND
HAS NOW SETTLED IN THE WEST GULF MOISTURE PLUME.  IN THE BIG PICTURE TO
THE EAST..CAN SEE A  SIGNIFICANT DRYING/LOWER OF PWATS MIGRATING WEST THE
PAST 24HRS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/S FL/KEYS INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THAT HAS ALSO HELPED ORIENT WESTERN GULF PLUME OF MOISTURE MORE
SOUTH-NORTH AND THUS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO MORE EFFICIENTLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
NEAR CORPUS CHRISTY AND FURTHER NORTH/NE INTO LOUISIANA.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1330-1800Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CONTINUING TO
CONCENTRATE FROM COAST LOWER TO MIDDLE TEXAS  TO SW AND CENTRAL LA AND
SHOUDL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH AND NE  TOWARD N LA AND MISSISSIPPI
AS CENTRAL TEXAS TROUGH SLUGGISHLY DRIFTS EAST.  WITH SUCH HIGH PRECIP
WATER VALUES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...MAX HRLY RATES CAN REACH 1-2 INCHES
PER HR, ISOLATED 3"/HR WITH CERTAINLY LOT MORE ACCUMULATED OVER A 2-6HR
PERIOD GIVEN THE NATURE OF CONTINUED EXPANSION OF CONVECTION WITH WEAK
IMPULSES LIFTING NORTH IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING
TO FLOW INTO THE AREA TO REPLACE WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN.
.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
.
FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3196 9275 3057 9108 2866 9150 2741 9409 2935 9413

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