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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/01/14 1621Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 1600Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1036 1330Z
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LOCATION...ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...
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EVENT...QUITE DIFFLUENT AND ON NWESTERN EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH A
PASSING HIGH LEVEL SHORT WAVE...NOW SOME OUTFLOW INTERACTION KEEPING
CONVECTION GOING S YAVAPAI/NW MARICOPA...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NW
MARICOPA COUNTY CONVECTION INTO EXT S CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY FOR SOME
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ON NW EDGE OF SHARP PWAT GRADIENT AND DIFFLUENCE.
HIGH LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW OFF INTO N AZ...SO BULK OF FORCING TO CONTINUE
FROM DIFFLUENCE....HIGH MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTION.  EXPECTING A
SLOW WEAKENING WITH STABILIZATION...BUT SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS CAN
CONTINUE FF THREAT IN THIS PART OF WESTERN AZ THRU 1730Z.  AND RECENTLY
WHOLE COMPLEX HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH...INCLUDING BRIEF RENEWED CONVECTIVE
ON INVERTED OUTFLOW IN S CENTRAL YAVAPAI AND NOW INTO N MARICOPA.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1600-1900Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...PRIME THREAT CONTINUES S YAVAPAI INTO NW
MARICOPA WITH SHARP PWAT AND TEMP GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
NOT EXPECTING RAIN RATES TO BE AS HIGH NEXT FEW HRS COMPARED WITH
PAST 3HRS AND EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND MORE OF A MOVING AROUND
OF CONVECTION THAT SHOULD LIMIT FF THREAT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
OBVIOUSLY CLOUD FROM THIS MORNING ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINNING CLOUD
AREAS FROM SE TO C  AZ FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON TODAY SE TO
CENTRAL TO INTERIOR NW AZ WHAT WITH CONTINUED INFLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE.
ON GOES WATER VAPOR..ENOUGH SWLY FLOW SE CA INTO NW AZ AND SW UTAH TO
KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND RAIN MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
.
FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3484 11193 3263 11097 3216 11239 3364 11360
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NNNN




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