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FGCA72 TJSJ 080516
ESFSJU
PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053>055-057-059-061-
063-065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-
095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-
127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-VIC010-
020-030-090515-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
115 AM AST SAT MAR 8 2014

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
INDICATES A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
STREAMFLOW MEASURED BY THE USGS GAGING NETWORK SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS
RUNNING IN THE 25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE. THERE ARE SOME
OUTLIERS WHICH ARE TRENDING DRIER...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
SHOWS REASONABLE STREAMFLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PAST PRECIPITATION...
MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS...THE YEAR TO DATE TOTALS ARE RUNNING BELOW
NORMAL FOR ALL OF THE ISLANDS. FOR PUERTO RICO...BASED ON LOCAL
CLIMATE ZONES...THE TOTALS ENCOMPASS AN EXTREMELY WIDE RANGE FROM 8
TO 82 PERCENT NORMAL...THE LOWEST BEING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO. THE TOTALS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE RUNNING IN
THE 23 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST FOR THE
SOUTHERNMOST ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX.

SOIL MOISTURE...
THE WINTER/DRY SEASON FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
USUALLY CREATES DRIER SOILS. HISTORICALLY...THE SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL DURING APRIL AND
MAY. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AREA ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
PUERTO RICO...STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE COAST...THAT HAS BEEN
DESIGNATED AS ABNORMALLY DRY IN THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. THE
REMAINDER OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH
DRY...REMAINS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THIS IS FIRE WEATHER SEASON AND 851 WILDLAND FIRES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED WITH 3659 ACRES BURNED THUS FAR IN PUERTO RICO. BRUSH FIRES
HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED ON THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE DROUGHT MONITOR/S
ABNORMALLY DRY DESIGNATED AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH COAST AND
THE DRY FOREST IN SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...MOST NOTABLY...GUANICA
AND CABO ROJO. THE BOQUERON STATE FOREST IN CABO ROJO EXPERIENCED A
FIRE IN FEBRUARY WHICH BURNED 30 ACRES AND DESTROYED ENDANGERED
FLORA...FAUNA AND TROPICAL WILDLIFE. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THESE AREAS
EXPERIENCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...DRIEST SOILS...MOST
COMBUSTIBLE FUELS...AND THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THIS
SEASON.

RESERVOIRS...
BASED ON USGS GAGING SITES...A SAMPLE OF A FEW OF THE MAJOR
RESERVOIRS ACROSS PUERTO RICO SHOW THAT CURRENT LEVELS DO NOT CAUSE
ANY PRESENT CONCERNS. LAGO PATILLAS IS CURRENTLY AT 221.79
FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 222.00 FEET. LAGO LOIZA IS
CURRENTLY 134.52 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 132.00 FEET AND
LAGO LA PLATA IS CURRENTLY 166.01 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS
155.00 FEET. THESE LEVELS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN THIS TIME LAST
YEAR...2013...AND CURRENTLY THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR THESE
RESERVOIRS.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...
BASED ON THE CARIBBEAN REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK...THERE ARE EQUAL
CHANCES OF...BELOW...NORMAL..AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING OF
2014...ENSO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION REMAINS NEUTRAL...SUGGESTING
SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS...THE CURRENT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INDICATES A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL
FOR PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$






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