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007 FXCA62 TJSJ 031848 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 248 PM AST SUN MAR 3 2013 .SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY. A SECOND FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FORMED OVER VIEQUES WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST-NORTH NORTHEAST ORIENTATION AND MOVED SLOWLY TOWARD THE PUERTO RICAN MAINLAND. NO OTHER SHOWERS HAD FORMED TODAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE OVER THE AREA INCREASING NOW THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE MAXIMUM SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE FRONT BEFORE IT COMES BACK...RANGING FROM THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TO SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX...BUT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AREAS SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF PUERTO RICO SHOULD HAVE ONLY A LIMITED CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THEREAFTER...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON TAP FOR PUERTO RICO...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS AND LESS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT BREAK IN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLVL WIND WILL BE FROM THE SE AT 10 KT OR LESS TODAY...VEERING TO THE S TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD AND SHWR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED MON TO TUE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AFTER 04/16Z. && .MARINE...SEAS ARE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL...4 TO 5 FEET OR LESS...ALTHOUGH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN GENERATING SOME WIND WAVES AND WEAK NORTH SWELL CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. NEXT PULSE OF SWELL WILL BE ON TUESDAY. LARGER SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY...AND SEAS GREATER THAN 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEVERAL DAYS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAVE GENERATED DRY FUELS...HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BORNE ON SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT. WETTING RAINS IN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 24 HOURS BEGINNING MONDAY NOON AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS 24 HOURS LATER THAN THIS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 73 85 74 82 / 10 40 70 70 STT 74 84 74 83 / 10 10 50 50 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 10/12