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553
FXCA62 TJSJ 270803
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
403 AM AST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW NE OF THE AREA WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH FRI THEN
FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS SRN STREAM TROF MOVES ACROSS THE SW ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY LATER
TODAY LEADING TO RAPID EROSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS...EXPECTING
CURRENT SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z. SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION HOLDS THROUGH 12Z SAT KEEPING RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
NEXT 48 HRS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND SAT
WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENING ON SAT LEADING TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS SAT AFTERNOON OVR INLAND AREAS. MOISTURE
DEEPENS THROUGH SUN WITH SCT RW/TSRA EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE RIDGE
BUILDS MON-MON NIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING SRN STREAM TROUGH LEADING
TO MID-LEVEL DRYING. A SECOND MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE GMEX WILL
MOVE INTO SW ATLC AND NW CARIB TUE AND WED AND PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WED ON WITH THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. EAST NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT 10-15 KT. NO SIG OPERATIONAL
WX IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE RAPIDLY TODAY THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN SEAS. WILL UNDERCUT WW3
GUIDANCE NEXT 72 HRS AS WAVE MODEL LOOKS TOO PESSIMISTIC. WINDS
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING
5-7 FT. A NW SWELL GROUP IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUN INCREASING
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  74  84  76 /   0   0   0  30
STT  86  77  86  78 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND
     CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES
     AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

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