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740
FXCA62 TJSJ 020924
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TODAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...MUCH
DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH FEW AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS LATE THIS MORNING AND OVER PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE DOESN`T HAVE TOO MUCH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WILL COINCIDE
WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. THIS COMBINATION WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE....VERY DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO
ENCOMPASS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO
AS LOW AS 1.00 INCH BY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE TO NONE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONG
TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS TJMZ AND
TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN PASSING
SHRA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KT
EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS.



&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN TRANQUIL AND GENERALLY BELOW 5 FEET
EVERYWHERE. WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS...MANY AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS ONLY. 4 FOOT SEAS ARE MOST LIKELY IN
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  78  90  77 /  30  20  20   0
STT  89  79  88  77 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

11/71






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