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540
FXCA62 TJSJ 251603
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1203 PM AST SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND BY LATE MORNING
SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...STREAMERS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON CREATING SHOWERS AROUND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING PARTS OF
EASTERN PR. FEW CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS...POP`S WERE
INCREASED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PR.


&&


.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PR
THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 25/17-21Z...ALSO...VCTS
AT TJSJ POSSIBLE. THE 25/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW OF 5-14 KT BELOW 5 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS ACROSS PR AND USVI ARE INDICATING SEAS OF
2-3 FEET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM AST SAT OCT 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION TROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE PASSED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...HAVING
LITTLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER LOCALLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ELSEWHERE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED...WITHOUT ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THEREFORE...WARMER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEEKEND MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...A WETTER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE FOR
NEXT WEEK UNDER THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.

MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  93  77  91  77 /  20  20  20  20
STT  89  78  88  79 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12






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