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972 FXUS64 KSJT 221128 AAA AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 628 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013 .DISCUSSION... SEE AVIATION SECTION. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS /WITH MVFR BASES AND CEILINGS/ WILL DEVELOP NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. CARRYING SCATTERED TO BROKEN TEMPO CLOUD GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KABI...DURING THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 9-12 KT TODAY. MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/ SHORT TERM... AFTER HAVING THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO EAST TEXAS AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 89-94 DEGREES ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THURSDAY...CENTERED VERY NEAR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN...BRINGING A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THIS FLOW WILL BE AN UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WEST TEXAS...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OUT THERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MEAN WIND IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KTS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THIS CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MAY ALLOW IT TO REACH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. MORE OF THE SAME FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING FARTHER EAST...THIS WILL ALLOW A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO REACH MORE OF THE AREA. SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CLIMB OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITHOUT ANY REAL HELP FROM ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...CAP MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THUS...A DRY AND WARMER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 90 69 94 70 89 / 5 10 10 20 20 SAN ANGELO 94 70 95 69 90 / 5 5 10 20 10 JUNCTION 93 70 92 69 87 / 5 0 0 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$