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150 FXUS64 KSJT 211739 RRA AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1139 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014 .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ Expect MVFR ceilings to improve this afternoon, allowing for a few hours of VFR conditions. However, after 01Z MVFR ceilings will redevelop and conditions will quickly diminish with ceilings dropping to IFR by mid evening. Areas south and east of a line from Ozona to Brady will likely see showers develop late this evening. However, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected tomorrow morning and into the afternoon hours. We`ll let later aviation forecasts pin down the timing as it draws closer. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Low level southerly flow will produce widespread stratus across West Central Texas today through Saturday morning. Expect MVFR CIGS at the terminals during much of the next 24 hours, with IFR CIGS at the KSOA terminal through 15Z. However, there may a few hours of low end VFR CIGS this afternoon and early evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area late tonight as a strong upper level disturbance approaches from the west. The confidence is low on coverage and timing of convection so going with only VCSH/VCTS at the terminals after 03Z Saturday. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) The WV satellite imagery was showing a strong southern stream trough over southern California. The 00Z upper air analysis at 500 MB indicated 120 meter height falls at SFO associated with this system. At the surface, a stationary front was located just south of the Red River. Across West Central Texas, low level southerly flow persisted south of the front. Low level moisture was slowly increasing, with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across much of the area. Also, stratus covers much of the area, south of the I-20 corridor. The weather will become more active across West Central Texas during the next 24 hours, with showers and thunderstorms developing tonight. A few storms may reach severe levels late tonight. Numerical models are indicating that strong upper level trough over Southern CA will move east across the southern Rockies/Northern Mexico into western Texas by 12Z Saturday. Strong upper level jet will extend from Northern Mexico toward southwest and southern Texas. For tonight, the combination of increasing mid and upper level ascent and low level jet setting up(speeds 40 to 50 knots) will result in showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage, especially after 06Z Saturday. The highest POPS(categorical) will be across the Big Country and Heartland as a surface boundary will be near the area. A few storms may reach severe levels across the Big Country due to some elevated instability(MUCAPES 1000 J/KG) and moderate shear(0-6KM 35 to 40 knots). The main threat will be large hail. For today, mainly a dry forecast with abundant low clouds this morning. A few thunderstorms are possible across the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country mainly this afternoon due to some weak instability. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) A potent upper level trough will approach West Central Texas late today into Saturday, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. The center of the upper level trough will be across the northern Mexican state of Sonora late Friday, then approach West Central Texas Saturday morning. As this feature approaches, large scale ascent will increase, with showers and thunderstorms developing across much of the area, mainly after midnight and through the day Saturday. The best chance will be across the eastern two thirds of the area, with the best chance shifting east through the day Saturday. Steep mid level lapse rates along with 0-6 Bulk Shear values of 30 to 45 knots could result in a few strong to severe thunderstorms. In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially across the eastern half of the region, as precipitable water values approach or exceed one inch. Rainfall will quickly shift east of the area Saturday afternoon, as the upper level trough swings across the region and a Pacific front swings through the area. Drier air will filter into the area, along with west winds of 10 to 20 mph. Highs on Sunday will be above seasonal normals, generally ranging form the mid 70s south , to the upper 60s across much of the Big Country. The next upper level trough trough will swing across the Southern Plains Sunday, sending a cold front through West Central Texas Sunday evening. Cooler temperatures are forecast for the first part of the week, with highs generally in the 50s, and overnight now lows in the 30s. Another front will move through the region on Tuesday, continuing the below normal temperatures. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 59 66 48 68 39 / 80 90 10 0 5 San Angelo 58 70 48 73 40 / 60 80 10 0 5 Junction 61 70 47 75 41 / 60 70 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 18