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000
FXUS64 KSJT 232344 AAA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
544 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY...BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH
WINDS ARE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR SO.
WILL TEMPER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS AT AREA TAF SITES AS SOME OF
THE MIXING ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT AFTER
THE SUN SETS TONIGHT WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
OUR TAF SITES. EITHER WAY...A PROFOUND WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AREA SITES...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH KABI AROUND 9PM TONIGHT...BETWEEN 11PM AND MIDNIGHT AT
KSJT...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SOUTHERN SITES. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY IFR CIGS AT KSOA/KJCT/KBBD TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE CEILINGS LIFTING
AND/OR SCATTERING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE...SO WILL SHOW CEILINGS
LIFTING BY AROUND 6AM TOMORROW MORNING AT THESE SOUTHERN SITES. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL SURGE
SOUTH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND IS NOW BEING SOMEWHAT
SCOURED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HEAD BACK TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FRONT
WILL PUSH IT RIGHT BACK OUT BY SUNRISE. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO MAKE A PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR HALF
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD LARGELY PUSH THEM BACK
OUT OF EVEN THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

GIVEN THE MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND LIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS TO PUSH INTO WC TX
ALL THE WAY THROUGH YOUR THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY. THESE SURFACE
HIGHS WILL CREATE COLD NIGHTS AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS.

LONG TERM...
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...AND A STRONGER SOUTH WIND ACROSS WC TX.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEEPEN THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A
CLOSED OFF LOW THAT TRACKS FROM FAR W TX ACROSS ABILENE AND THE
BIG COUNTRY ON MONDAY. THE GFS PROGS A DEEP PROGRESSIVE OPEN
TROUGH ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE...AND THE ENSEMBLES HAD MANY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WHICH TRANSLATES TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

THE COMBINATION OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION...EVEN THE WINTRY
TYPE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE
INCONSISTENT LATELY BECAUSE OF THE CHANGE OF SEASONS...PLAN TO
TREND TO COLDER AND SLIGHTLY WETTER FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AND NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION JUST YET.
PLAN TO CONTINUE 10-15 POPS SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  38  61  32  65  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
SAN ANGELO  40  63  28  65  31 /  10  10   0   0   0
JUNCTION  47  62  28  66  30 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







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