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624 FXUS64 KSJT 300454 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1152 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ Isolated showers will be possible at KABI through 09Z, otherwise no precipitation is expected through the rest of night. Scattered to broken MVFR stratus will develop across the southern terminals after 10Z and linger through mid morning. Isolated convection may develop Saturday afternoon across the southern terminals but timing and coverage is too uncertain to include in the forecast at this time. Expect light winds the next 24 hours. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/ UPDATE... To decrease PoPs... DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated across West Central Texas this evening, with the loss of daytime heating. Rain chances were removed across most of the area, but slight chance PoPs were retained across the Interstate 10 corridor, where scattered showers are lingering. Temperatures were also tweaked to match up with current trends. Otherwise, no other changes are needed at this time. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Scattered convection continues around the southern terminals early this evening with isolated activity farther north near KSJT and KABI. Included TEMPO groups for TS at all terminals through mid evening. Brief wind gusts to 45 kt will be possible, along with some MVFR visibilities due to heavy rain. Convection will diminish after 03z, with VFR expected into Saturday. Isolated convection possible Saturday afternoon but will not mention due to timing and coverage uncertainty. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Saturday) Rain chances for West Central Texas will continue through tonight, as an upper trough slides farther east across the Great Plains. Model forecast soundings from the NAM and GFS indicate precipitable water will continue around 1.5 inches overnight. Thus, possible flash flooding remains a threat overnight, as some thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rain. For tomorrow, models indicate rain chances end, as the upper trough moves over the Mississippi river valley. Huber LONG TERM... (Saturday night into Friday) The upper ridge gradually strengthens Sunday. While an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in southeast zones Sunday afternoon...from Junction to San Saba...the potential is too low to include the forecast. Both the EC and GFS models show the upper ridge to continue intensify through the middle of next week. West Central Texas will be on the southern side of the upper ridge, centered from Northern New Mexico into Oklahoma. Thus, while West Central Texas will be hot and dry, high temperatures should stay in the mid 90s. 04 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 72 95 73 96 75 / 10 10 5 5 5 San Angelo 71 96 73 96 73 / 10 10 5 5 5 Junction 73 96 73 95 73 / 20 10 5 10 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 24