[Printable]
Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here
000 FXUS64 KSJT 232344 AAA AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 544 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .DISCUSSION... SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY...BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS ARE SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR SO. WILL TEMPER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS AT AREA TAF SITES AS SOME OF THE MIXING ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT AFTER THE SUN SETS TONIGHT WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR TAF SITES. EITHER WAY...A PROFOUND WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AREA SITES...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH KABI AROUND 9PM TONIGHT...BETWEEN 11PM AND MIDNIGHT AT KSJT...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR OUR SOUTHERN SITES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR/BRIEFLY IFR CIGS AT KSOA/KJCT/KBBD TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE CEILINGS LIFTING AND/OR SCATTERING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE...SO WILL SHOW CEILINGS LIFTING BY AROUND 6AM TOMORROW MORNING AT THESE SOUTHERN SITES. 20 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/ SHORT TERM... COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND IS NOW BEING SOMEWHAT SCOURED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HEAD BACK TONIGHT. HOWEVER...FRONT WILL PUSH IT RIGHT BACK OUT BY SUNRISE. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO MAKE A PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD LARGELY PUSH THEM BACK OUT OF EVEN THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. GIVEN THE MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND LIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS TO PUSH INTO WC TX ALL THE WAY THROUGH YOUR THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY. THESE SURFACE HIGHS WILL CREATE COLD NIGHTS AND SUNNY AFTERNOONS. LONG TERM... BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...AND A STRONGER SOUTH WIND ACROSS WC TX. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEEPEN THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED OFF LOW THAT TRACKS FROM FAR W TX ACROSS ABILENE AND THE BIG COUNTRY ON MONDAY. THE GFS PROGS A DEEP PROGRESSIVE OPEN TROUGH ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE...AND THE ENSEMBLES HAD MANY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WHICH TRANSLATES TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY. THE COMBINATION OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION...EVEN THE WINTRY TYPE...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT LATELY BECAUSE OF THE CHANGE OF SEASONS...PLAN TO TREND TO COLDER AND SLIGHTLY WETTER FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION JUST YET. PLAN TO CONTINUE 10-15 POPS SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 38 61 32 65 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 SAN ANGELO 40 63 28 65 31 / 10 10 0 0 0 JUNCTION 47 62 28 66 30 / 20 10 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 99/99/99