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231 FXUS64 KSJT 112334 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 634 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Gusty west to northwest winds will diminish as the sun sets but a strong cold front will follow during the evening hours, shifting winds to the north at 20 to 30 kts, with gusts over 35 kts at times. Two surface boundaries exist at this time. The initial wind shift is currently north of KABI and KSWW with the primary cold front from near KPVW to KSPS. Both boundaries will move south, with the primary cold front overtaking the weaker boundary during the evening hours. The primary front will reach KABI around 02z, KSJT by 03Z, and KJCT by 05z. Given the anticipated strength of the post-frontal wind gusts, an Airport Weather Warning will be issued for KABI. Areas of blowing dust are already affecting the Big Country and should continue to be an issue overnight as the stronger winds develop. Much of the Panhandle is obscured by blowing dust with visibilities of less than 2 miles. Expect visibilities greater than 4 miles in most areas but amendments may be required as the front moves through. Winds will remain strong through the morning hours but will begin to weaken by midday as the pressure gradient weakens. I expect gusts to near 20 kts by mid afternoon. Johnson && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Wednesday) Warm, breezy and very dry conditions are developing across West Central Texas this afternoon with a surface trough moving across the area. An area of blowing dust over the South Plains and northeastern Permian Basin is spreading southeast into the Big Country and northwestern Concho Valley this afternoon. To the north a cold front is advancing south through the Texas Panhandle. This front will move rapidly south across West Central Texas later this evening and tonight. This front is expected to enter Haskell and Throckmorton Counties 6-7 PM, reaching the Interstate 20 corridor around 9 PM, and reaching Interstate 10 between Midnight and 1 AM. Strong, gusty north winds will follow passage of this cold front and will continue overnight. A Wind Advisory is in effect for all of West Central Texas, from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM Wednesday. Have inserted a blowing dust in the forecast for late this afternoon across roughly the northern third of our forecast area, and have left the inherited mention of blowing dust in the forecast later this evening and tonight. Gusty north winds will continue on Wednesday morning, before decreasing in the afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler Wednesday, with highs expected to be mostly in the 55-60 degree range. LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Surface high pressure will be overhead Wednesday evening but will begin moving off to the east overnight. A dry airmass coupled with light winds and mostly clear skies will result in chilly overnight temperatures, with lows dropping into the lower 30s areawide by daybreak Thursday. South winds return on Thursday with afternoon temperatures warming into the mid and upper 60s. Models continue to shown a compact upper low/trough developing over the Desert Southwest on Thursday. The GFS is faster with this system and brings the upper low across Arizona and New Mexico Thursday night and across West Texas Friday morning. The ECMWF is slower and brings the system across as an open wave Friday night. Moisture will be lacking with this system so will continue with a dry forecast. The system will however bring a Pacific front through the area on Friday, with gusty west winds developing, which will result in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across the area by afternoon. It will be warmer with highs in the lower to middle 70s. Medium range models continue to be problematic as they differ in the evolution of another shortwave that dives south across the Rockies next weekend. The ECMWF closes off a low over southern New Mexico Saturday night, then drops it south/southwest to near the southern tip of Baja by Sunday night. The GFS is farther north and briefly closes off the system before moving it east across the area Sunday night. Both systems bring a cold front across the area on Sunday with the GFS painting a considerable amount of precipitation across the area, while the ECMWF keeps most of the precipitation south and east of the area. Confidence continues to remain low with this system, so little change was made next weekend other than to expand the slight PoPs farther west and south Sunday and Sunday night. Expect cooler temperatures behind the front on Sunday with highs in the 60s. Dry conditions will prevail early next week with temperatures warming back into the 70s by Tuesday. Fire Weather... A Red Flag Warning is in effect today from Noon to 8 PM. The combination of warm and very dry conditions with gusty west winds is resulting in dangerous fire weather conditions. A cold front will move south across West Central Texas later this evening and tonight. This front is expected to enter Haskell and Throckmorton Counties 6-7 PM, reaching the Interstate 20 corridor around 9 PM, and reaching Interstate 10 between Midnight and 1 AM. Strong, gusty north winds will follow passage of this cold front and will continue overnight. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Wednesday, due to gusty north winds in the morning, and with relative humidity values falling to between 20 and 30 percent during the afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Thursday afternoon with increasing south winds and relative humidity values dropping into the 15-25 percent range. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be possible Friday afternoon, due to a forecast combination of gusty west winds and an intrusion of dry air into West Central Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 40 57 32 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 42 59 30 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Junction 44 60 30 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Fisher...Haskell...Irion... Jones...Nolan...Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor... Throckmorton...Tom Green. WIND ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...Fisher... Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...Menard... Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford... Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green. && $$ 25