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155
FXUS64 KSJT 241115
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
614 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
expect mainly VFR conditions at the terminals the next 24 hours. The
only exception will be MVFR CIGS at the Brady terminal until 15Z
today, and the stratus may even clear quicker. A cool front will
move south across the area this morning, with north winds gusting to
20 knots behind the front.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another cold front will push south across West Central Texas today
and bring cooler air. Highs today, mainly in the mid to upper 80s,
look good. So, I didn`t make any changes there. As for lows tonight,
the NAM and GFS MOS guidance products presented cooler temperatures
than what we`ve been thinking for the last couple forecast runs.
Thus, I did adjust low temperatures for tonight down slightly.

Huber

LONG TERM...
(Friday and Friday Night)

For these two periods, southerly return low-level flow will help
produce slightly warmer temperatures. However, MOS numbers for these
two periods also are slightly lower than what we`d indicated in our
previous forecast packages. Nevertheless, the general consensus
among my neighbor offices is temperatures will not be as cool as MOS
numbers indicate this cycle. So, I didn`t make any changes to
temperatures for these two periods.

Huber

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Models this cycle continue to indicate the best chance for another
round of severe weather will be Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night. A surface dryline will become more defined along our western
border during the afternoon on Saturday, and streamline analysis of
aloft wind fields continue to indicate good diffluence aloft over
West Central Texas, from Saturday afternoon through midnight
Saturday night. Model forecast soundings, centered on several
locations across our counties, indicate CAPEs around 2000 J/Kg by
00Z Sunday (Saturday afternoon). Plus, these soundings indicate
little if any convective inhibition. Although it`s still too early
to assess the risks with high certainty, model data currently
supports possible tornadoes in addition to large hail, damaging
winds, and deadly lightning, beginning Saturday afternoon.

Huber

(Sunday through Wednesday)

Models continue to push another dry front across West Central Texas
on Sunday. Cooler air behind the front will decrease temperatures
through the middle of next week.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  83  56  92  66  91 /   5   0   5   5  20
San Angelo  86  58  92  66  93 /   5   0   5   5  20
Junction  88  61  88  66  89 /  10   0   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









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