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155
FXUS64 KSJT 291718
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...

Guidance has come in a few degrees cooler with afternoon highs
today. Given numerous boundaries in the area, and with afternoon
clouds/isolated convection developing, we`ve lowered temperatures
a couple of degrees across the area. Mesoanalysis and point
soundings indicate a microburst environment is in place. Thus,
wind gusts over 40 mph will be possible with the stronger
thunderstorms that develop.

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions and light winds will dominate the weather at all
terminals through the next 24 hours. Numerous outflow boundaries are
present across the area from yesterday`s convection. Short-term
models develop convection this afternoon across most of the area.
VCSH was inserted through 00z at KABI, KSJT, and KBBD. Given a
very dry sub-cloud layer, microbursts will be possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR next 24 hours with east to southeast winds 10 KTS or less.
Isolated thunderstorms possible after 20Z but not mentioned due
to low coverage.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A thunderstorm outflow boundary pushed south along the I-10
corridor and dissipated overnight, with winds becoming easterly
over West Central Texas. With daytime heating, isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly after 3 PM.

The best chance of thunderstorms may be in the Big Country after
midnight tonight. A thunderstorm complex may develop in easterly
upslope conditions in Caprock in the Lubbock/Panhandle region this
evening, then move slowly southeast. Instability is fairly weak
with SB CAPES of 300-900 J/KG, so while severe storms are not
expected, there will still be the potential for strong gusty winds
near storms.

High temperatures in the Big Country will be cooler in the lower
90s today, as storms in New Mexico and Panhandle bring mid and
upper cloudiness, in northwest flow aloft.

04

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

The main concern with the long term forecast will be rain chances
associated with a cold front moving into the area Wednesday.

The EC/GFS/NAM are in pretty good agreement with the timing of the
main synoptic cold front, bringing it through the area after peak
heating on Wednesday. So, will keep the hot temperatures in the
forecast for Wednesday ahead of the front. Have also kept a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday for areas mainly
north of the I-20 corridor as the front approaches. The front will
have a stronger push southward to our west, which will cause the
front to be oriented from the Davis Mountains area northeast into
our CWA by late afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front while in this position, giving
our western counties a slightly enhanced chance for precipitation
Wednesday night.

From midweek into the weekend, the area will be influenced by
northwest flow aloft. This usually leads to periodic rain chances
as thunderstorms form to our northwest. The cold front will bring
northeast flow into the area, and as the front moves south of the
CWA, the focus for thunderstorm development will also shift
southward. Therefore, have followed the general trend from latest
model guidance and lowered PoP chances after Thursday for most of
the area. We will keep a slight chance to chance for thunderstorms
for most of the area in the forecast from Wednesday into Thursday
night. As slightly drier/more stable air moves into the area
behind the front, rain chances diminish, and have gone to a dry
forecast from Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will
remain cooler than the upper 90s to around 100 degrees seen on
Wednesday. Aside from 80s for the Big Country on Thursday and
Friday, we will see mainly lower 90s for highs, with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  90  74  98  71  83 /  30  20  10  20  20
San Angelo  95  73 100  71  90 /  20  20  10  20  20
Junction  95  72 100  74  93 /  10   5   5  10  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Doll








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