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155 FXUS64 KSJT 291718 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014 .UPDATE... Guidance has come in a few degrees cooler with afternoon highs today. Given numerous boundaries in the area, and with afternoon clouds/isolated convection developing, we`ve lowered temperatures a couple of degrees across the area. Mesoanalysis and point soundings indicate a microburst environment is in place. Thus, wind gusts over 40 mph will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms that develop. && .AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/ VFR conditions and light winds will dominate the weather at all terminals through the next 24 hours. Numerous outflow boundaries are present across the area from yesterday`s convection. Short-term models develop convection this afternoon across most of the area. VCSH was inserted through 00z at KABI, KSJT, and KBBD. Given a very dry sub-cloud layer, microbursts will be possible. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/ AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ VFR next 24 hours with east to southeast winds 10 KTS or less. Isolated thunderstorms possible after 20Z but not mentioned due to low coverage. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) A thunderstorm outflow boundary pushed south along the I-10 corridor and dissipated overnight, with winds becoming easterly over West Central Texas. With daytime heating, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly after 3 PM. The best chance of thunderstorms may be in the Big Country after midnight tonight. A thunderstorm complex may develop in easterly upslope conditions in Caprock in the Lubbock/Panhandle region this evening, then move slowly southeast. Instability is fairly weak with SB CAPES of 300-900 J/KG, so while severe storms are not expected, there will still be the potential for strong gusty winds near storms. High temperatures in the Big Country will be cooler in the lower 90s today, as storms in New Mexico and Panhandle bring mid and upper cloudiness, in northwest flow aloft. 04 LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) The main concern with the long term forecast will be rain chances associated with a cold front moving into the area Wednesday. The EC/GFS/NAM are in pretty good agreement with the timing of the main synoptic cold front, bringing it through the area after peak heating on Wednesday. So, will keep the hot temperatures in the forecast for Wednesday ahead of the front. Have also kept a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday for areas mainly north of the I-20 corridor as the front approaches. The front will have a stronger push southward to our west, which will cause the front to be oriented from the Davis Mountains area northeast into our CWA by late afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front while in this position, giving our western counties a slightly enhanced chance for precipitation Wednesday night. From midweek into the weekend, the area will be influenced by northwest flow aloft. This usually leads to periodic rain chances as thunderstorms form to our northwest. The cold front will bring northeast flow into the area, and as the front moves south of the CWA, the focus for thunderstorm development will also shift southward. Therefore, have followed the general trend from latest model guidance and lowered PoP chances after Thursday for most of the area. We will keep a slight chance to chance for thunderstorms for most of the area in the forecast from Wednesday into Thursday night. As slightly drier/more stable air moves into the area behind the front, rain chances diminish, and have gone to a dry forecast from Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will remain cooler than the upper 90s to around 100 degrees seen on Wednesday. Aside from 80s for the Big Country on Thursday and Friday, we will see mainly lower 90s for highs, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 90 74 98 71 83 / 30 20 10 20 20 San Angelo 95 73 100 71 90 / 20 20 10 20 20 Junction 95 72 100 74 93 / 10 5 5 10 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ Doll