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150
FXUS64 KSJT 211739 RRA
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1139 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/
Expect MVFR ceilings to improve this afternoon, allowing for a few
hours of VFR conditions. However, after 01Z MVFR ceilings will
redevelop and conditions will quickly diminish with ceilings
dropping to IFR by mid evening. Areas south and east of a line from
Ozona to Brady will likely see showers develop late this evening.
However, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected
tomorrow morning and into the afternoon hours. We`ll let later
aviation forecasts pin down the timing as it draws closer.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Low level southerly flow will produce widespread stratus across
West Central Texas today through Saturday morning. Expect MVFR
CIGS at the terminals during much of the next 24 hours, with IFR
CIGS at the KSOA terminal through 15Z. However, there may a few
hours of low end VFR CIGS this afternoon and early evening. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop across the area late tonight as a
strong upper level disturbance approaches from the west. The
confidence is low on coverage and timing of convection so going
with only VCSH/VCTS at the terminals after 03Z Saturday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The WV satellite imagery was showing a strong southern stream trough
over southern California. The 00Z upper air analysis at 500 MB
indicated 120 meter height falls at SFO associated with this system.
At the surface, a stationary front was located just south of the Red
River. Across West Central Texas, low level southerly flow persisted
south of the front. Low level moisture was slowly increasing, with
dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across much of the area. Also,
stratus covers much of the area, south of the I-20 corridor.

The weather will become more active across West Central Texas during
the next 24 hours, with showers and thunderstorms developing
tonight. A few storms may reach severe levels late tonight.
Numerical models are indicating that strong upper level trough over
Southern CA will move east across the southern Rockies/Northern
Mexico into western Texas by 12Z Saturday. Strong upper level jet
will extend from Northern Mexico toward southwest and southern
Texas. For tonight, the combination of increasing mid and upper
level ascent and low level jet setting up(speeds 40 to 50 knots)
will result in showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage,
especially after 06Z Saturday. The highest POPS(categorical) will be
across the Big Country and Heartland as a surface boundary will be
near the area. A few storms may reach severe levels across the Big
Country due to some elevated instability(MUCAPES 1000 J/KG) and
moderate shear(0-6KM 35 to 40 knots). The main threat will be large
hail. For today, mainly a dry forecast with abundant low clouds this
morning. A few thunderstorms are possible across the Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country mainly this afternoon due to some weak
instability. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

A potent upper level trough will approach West Central Texas late
today into Saturday, resulting in showers and thunderstorms. The
center of the upper level trough will be across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora late Friday, then approach West Central Texas
Saturday morning. As this feature approaches, large scale ascent
will increase, with showers and thunderstorms developing across much
of the area, mainly after midnight and through the day Saturday. The
best chance will be across the eastern two thirds of the area, with
the best chance shifting east through the day Saturday. Steep mid
level lapse rates along with 0-6 Bulk Shear values of 30 to 45 knots
could result in a few strong to severe thunderstorms. In addition,
locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially across the
eastern half of the region, as precipitable water values approach or
exceed one inch. Rainfall will quickly shift east of the area
Saturday afternoon, as the upper level trough swings across the
region and a Pacific front swings through the area. Drier air will
filter into the area, along with west winds of 10 to 20 mph. Highs
on Sunday will be above seasonal normals, generally ranging form the
mid 70s south , to the upper 60s across much of the Big Country.

The next upper level trough trough will swing across the Southern
Plains Sunday, sending a cold front through West Central Texas
Sunday evening. Cooler temperatures are forecast for the first part
of the week, with highs generally in the 50s, and overnight now lows
in the 30s. Another front will move through the region on Tuesday,
continuing the below normal temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  59  66  48  68  39 /  80  90  10   0   5
San Angelo  58  70  48  73  40 /  60  80  10   0   5
Junction  61  70  47  75  41 /  60  70  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

18







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