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874 FXUS64 KSJT 220523 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1123 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFS/ IFR to MVFR stratus was spreading northward to San Angelo and Brady at 05Z. San Angelo will be on the western edge of the stratus overnight, which should move north to areas east of Abilene. A Pacific front with dry southwest winds will otherwise sweep the stratus eastward during the morning with all TAF sites becoming VFR. With winds at 10 KTS or greater, potential for dense fog is limited overnight, although a few areas could see 4 to 5 miles as temperatures fall near dew points. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/ AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ MVFR stratus should spread back north along the I-10 corridor this evening, reaching San Angelo and Brady towards midnight. A strengthening lee trough with southwest will will keep low level moisture shallow, and ceiling should scatter out to VFR before sunrise at KSJT and mid morning at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD. Westerly winds with gusts to 20 KTS early and mid morning (and shifting the northwest by noon) may bring cross wind problems on south to north runways for general aviation at KSJT and KABI. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Monday) Clouds have continued to clear from west to east this afternoon, and most areas should clear by late afternoon. Overnight lows will once again be above seasonal normals, generally in the lower to mid 40s. Stratus is forecast to develop after midnight, across mainly the Northwest Hill Country and Interstate 10 corridor. Early morning clouds across the southeast counties will quickly dissipate by mid to late morning. A cold front is forecast to move into the Big Country Monday afternoon, then into the Concho Valley by early evening. Ahead of the front, compressional heating will result in highs ranging from the low to mid 70s across the southern half of the area, to the mid to upper 60s across the Big Country. A dry forecast will continue through Monday afternoon. 14 LONG TERM... (Monday night through Sunday) Rain chances continue to look somewhat promising for Tuesday. Models have maintained the timing with the first cold front, which looks to enter Haskell and Throckmorton counties during the afternoon, progressing south across the area overnight. Breezy southwest winds will develop ahead of this front, with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 60s along/north of Interstate 20, warming into the lower to mid 70s farther south. The models have remained consistent over the last 24 hours, showing a stronger/farther south track of a shortwave trough crossing the area Monday night/Tuesday morning, with a greater precipitation signal. Confidence in this potential rainfall continues to grow; so, we`ve expanded all POPs, with chance category POPs (25-54%) for areas north of a line from Mertzon to the O.H. Ivie Reservoir, tapering to slight chance (15-24%) south of there. However, rainfall looks to remain less than 1/10 of an inch in most areas. Cooler temperatures will return to the area for Tuesday and Wednesday behind the front. Tuesday looks to be the coolest day, especially if clouds/rainfall linger later into the day longer than currently expected. Highs both days look to be in the 50s. For Christmas Day through the end of the week, another weak cold front will approach West Central Texas during the day, crossing the area Friday. Again, breezy southwest winds will push afternoon highs into the upper 60s and possibly into the lower 70s. During this time period, another shortwave trough will pass by the area to our north. This disturbance looks to be weaker in strength; thus, no rainfall chances were added to the forecast. Highs will be in the 50s following the frontal passage. Doll && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 45 68 42 50 33 / 0 5 30 20 5 San Angelo 44 74 41 52 32 / 0 5 30 20 5 Junction 44 74 41 53 32 / 5 0 20 20 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 04