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FXUS64 KSJT 220523

1123 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

/06Z TAFS/

IFR to MVFR stratus was spreading northward to San Angelo and
Brady at 05Z. San Angelo will be on the western edge of the
stratus overnight, which should move north to areas east of
Abilene. A Pacific front with dry southwest winds will otherwise
sweep the stratus eastward during the morning with all TAF sites
becoming VFR. With winds at 10 KTS or greater, potential for dense
fog is limited overnight, although a few areas could see 4 to 5
miles as temperatures fall near dew points.



/00Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus should spread back north along the I-10 corridor
this evening, reaching San Angelo and Brady towards midnight.
A strengthening lee trough with southwest will will keep low level
moisture shallow, and ceiling should scatter out to VFR before
sunrise at KSJT and mid morning at KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD.

Westerly winds with gusts to 20 KTS early and mid morning
(and shifting the northwest by noon) may bring cross wind
problems on south to north runways for general aviation at KSJT
and KABI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2014/

(Tonight and Monday)

Clouds have continued to clear from west to east this afternoon, and
most areas should clear by late afternoon. Overnight lows will once
again be above seasonal normals, generally in the lower to mid 40s.
Stratus is forecast to develop after midnight, across mainly the
Northwest Hill Country and Interstate 10 corridor. Early morning
clouds across the southeast counties will quickly dissipate by mid
to late morning. A cold front is forecast to move into the Big
Country Monday afternoon, then into the Concho Valley by early
evening. Ahead of the front, compressional heating will result in
highs ranging from the low to mid 70s across the southern half of
the area, to the mid to upper 60s across the Big Country. A dry
forecast will continue through Monday afternoon.


(Monday night through Sunday)

Rain chances continue to look somewhat promising for Tuesday. Models
have maintained the timing with the first cold front, which looks to
enter Haskell and Throckmorton counties during the afternoon,
progressing south across the area overnight. Breezy southwest winds
will develop ahead of this front, with afternoon highs topping out
in the upper 60s along/north of Interstate 20, warming into the
lower to mid 70s farther south. The models have remained consistent
over the last 24 hours, showing a stronger/farther south track of a
shortwave trough crossing the area Monday night/Tuesday morning,
with a greater precipitation signal. Confidence in this potential
rainfall continues to grow; so, we`ve expanded all POPs, with
chance category POPs (25-54%) for areas north of a line from
Mertzon to the O.H. Ivie Reservoir, tapering to slight chance
(15-24%) south of there. However, rainfall looks to remain less
than 1/10 of an inch in most areas. Cooler temperatures will
return to the area for Tuesday and Wednesday behind the front.
Tuesday looks to be the coolest day, especially if clouds/rainfall
linger later into the day longer than currently expected. Highs
both days look to be in the 50s.

For Christmas Day through the end of the week, another weak cold
front will approach West Central Texas during the day, crossing the
area Friday. Again, breezy southwest winds will push afternoon highs
into the upper 60s and possibly into the lower 70s. During this time
period, another shortwave trough will pass by the area to our north.
This disturbance looks to be weaker in strength; thus, no rainfall
chances were added to the forecast. Highs will be in the 50s
following the frontal passage.



Abilene  45  68  42  50  33 /   0   5  30  20   5
San Angelo  44  74  41  52  32 /   0   5  30  20   5
Junction  44  74  41  53  32 /   5   0  20  20   5





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