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465 FXUS64 KSJT 202004 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 304 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014 .SHORT TERM... Showers and thunderstorms should end this evening after sunset as the lift associated with the jet max and associated PVA moves northeast of the area. Although not likely, stray thunderstorm from the Trans Pecos could reach Crockett County this evening. Will insert low pops for our southwestern counties. A cold front along with a weak upper level trough will move southeast into West Central Texas tomorrow. As they interact with a warm and moist boundary layer, this will set the stage for a round of severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. There is a slight risk for severe storms on Monday along and south of a line from Albany to Mertzon. MUCAPE Values in excess of 2000 j/kg coupled with steep lapse rates underneath the cold air aloft and weak 0-6km Bulk Shear Values of 20kts should set the stage for severe storms. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. 26 .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) The main concerns in the long term forecast are a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday evening and Wednesday evening. A weak cold front will move into the Big Country tomorrow morning, slow down, then stall around the Concho Valley Monday evening. Enough convergence will be present along the boundary to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday evening. Although isolated convection is possible farther north, I believe most of the convection will remain south of a San Angelo to Coleman line. SBCAPE values will be in the 500 to 2000 J/KG range, with a fairly unstable atmosphere present. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main concerns. Most convection should begin to dissipate after midnight, due to loss of heating. Upper level ridging will result in above normal temperatures on Tuesday, along with mainly dry conditions. Although the cold front will begin to dissipate across the Interstate 10 corridor overnight Monday, enough of a remnant boundary may reside in the area to result in an isolated thunderstorm. I have kept PoPs out of the forecast, as confidence remains too low that any convection will develop. On Wednesday, the next upper level trough will approach the Plains. Wednesday afternoon, the dryline will become more defined just west of our area, with increasing instability ahead of the boundary. I expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along the dryline by late afternoon, then move east across a large part of the area during the evening hours. Although this is still several days away, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. Above normal temperatures are forecast through the end of the work week, with highs generally in the upper 80s and 90s, and lows in the 60s. The next upper level trough will approach West Central Texas next weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but differences in timing and strength remain in the models, so for now I have left PoPs out of the forecast. Daniels && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 67 83 60 85 61 / 30 30 20 5 5 San Angelo 65 85 60 86 61 / 20 40 30 10 5 Junction 62 83 62 86 63 / 10 30 40 10 5 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 26/Daniels