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924
FOUS30 KWBC 220653
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...VALID 06Z TUE JUL 22 2014 - 12Z WED JUL 23 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...NORTHERN MN...

THE AREA ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
THE MCS AND ITS HEAVIER RAINS.  THE WELL DEFINED MCV/H5 S/WV NOW
OVER NORTHWESTERN MN WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE ARROWHEAD BY 12Z
AND EXIT MN SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  THE HEAVIER RAINS HAVE BEEN
ALONG/NORTH OF ITS TRACK..WHICH MEANS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS..EXTREME NORTHCENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD WILL BE UNDER
THE GUN FOR THESE HEAVIER RAINS.  SOME LOCAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY UNTIL ABOUT 12Z..WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME VERY
LOCAL AND BRIEF RUNOFF PROBLEMS.


...COASTAL NC...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY
RETROGRADING THE CLOSED H5 LOW NOW VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  TO THE EAST OF THIS
SYSTEM..VERY HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC..SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES..AND ESPECIALLY SO FROM FL AND GA INTO THE CARLOINAS AND
BACK OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY..WHERE 2+ INCH PWS WILL BE COMMON.
EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THRUOUT THIS ENTIRE
REGION AS HEATING INCREASES ON TUESDAY..BUT WITH ONE AREA OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE.  THIS ONE AREA WILL BE THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS..AND IN PARTICULAR COASTAL NC..WHERE ATLANTIC
INFLOW OF VERY DEEP MOISTURE IS MAXIMIZED INTO A WEAK
SURFACE/COASTAL TROF EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  HERE..AREAL AVERAGE 1-2
INCH RAINS COULD OCCUR..BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED VERY
HEAVY RAINS DUE TO THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE AND SLOW CELL
MOVEMENT..ALL OF WHICH COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME RUNOFF CONCERNS.

TERRY

$$






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