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833
FOUS30 KWBC 220155
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
946 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...VALID 03Z MON SEP 22 2014 - 00Z TUE SEP 23 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SSE SJN 60 E SJN 20 SSW AEG 25 NNW CQC 15 SSW LVS 40 ESE LVS
15 W TCC 20 NE CVN 25 NW LBB 15 SE LBB 40 NW SNK 20 N BPG
15 SSE ODO 45 WSW PEQ 50 WSW GDP 20 SSE LRU 10 NNW DMN 20 W SVC
35 ENE SAD 45 NNE SAD 45 SSE SJN.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ENE ROW 30 NNW HOB 10 NW HOB 40 SW HOB 15 S CNM 35 NNW GDP
25 E ALM 20 SW SRR 10 NNE SRR 30 ENE SRR 25 ENE ROW.

...WESTERN TEXAS INTO NEW MEXICO...

MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE..MAINLY TO
REMOVE PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN AZ..NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHWESTERN CO
FROM THE THREAT AREA..WITH THE MORE LIKELY HEAVY TO LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT MOSTLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN NM
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD.  THE 00Z RAOBS SHOWED THE
AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTINUING TO COME UP THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY..AS PER OBSERVED PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AS FAR NORTH AND WEST
AS DRT AND PWS ABOVE 1.75 INCHES EVEN UP AT MAF.  K INDICES
THRUOUT WESTERN TX INTO EASTERN NM WERE ALSO QUITE
IMPRESSIVE..MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO 40..SIGNALING THE AIR MASS
THRU THIS REGION REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE.  ALTHOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING NOW ON THE WANE..A SUSTAINED 20-25+ KTS OF
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHEASTERN NM COULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION THRU EVEN THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT TIME HOURS..WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED 1-2
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.  THUS..KEPT A MODERATE
RISK INTACT WHERE THE FLOOD THREAT SEEMED GREATEST FOR THE REST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT.  RENEWED HEATING AGAIN LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD EXPAND THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AGAIN THRU A
LARGER PART OF NM..AND THIS WAS THE REASON FOR KEEPING THE LARGER
SLIGHT RISK INTACT.


...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE AND
OPENING UP/WEAKENING MID LEVEL SYSTEM..BELIEVE THE THREAT OF HEAVY
TO ISOLATED FLOODING RAINS IS LESSENING QUICKLY THRU THIS REGION.
SOME VERY ISOLATED 1 INCH RAINS POSSIBLE FIRST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE/FEW HOURS..BUT DIDN`T THINK THE THREAT WARRANTED EVEN A
SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

TERRY
$$






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