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298
FXUS01 KWBC 302003
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VALID 00Z SUN AUG 31 2014 - 00Z TUE SEP 02 2014

...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL HAVE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...

...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE GULF COAST AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...

...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES COVER MUCH OF THE WEST
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
SOUTHWEST...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE TRANSPORTING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
LATER ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA NORTHEAST INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA.

MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COUPLED WITH A SURGE OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING INLAND OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A SEPARATE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS
WELL THROUGH SUNDAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST, WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS AND
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES. MEANWHILE,
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY. HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






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