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883
FXHW01 KWNH 201128
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
727 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

VALID 00Z THU AUG 21 2014 - 00Z THU AUG 28 2014


BOTH THE 00Z/20 ECMWF AND THE 06Z/20 GFS INDICATE THAT A PATCH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PASS FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
HAWAI`IN ISLANDS THURSDAY, ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF
THE STATE. THEREAFTER, DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE LOOKS HARDER TO COME
BY. BOTH MODELS--PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF--DEVELOP A CIRCULATION IN
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE
VICINITY OF 12N/152W. THE ECMWF LIFTS THE SYSTEM AS FAR AS 17N BY
LATE MONDAY, WITH THE GFS ONLY REACHING 14N. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE CIRCULATION GETS PUSHED AND PULLED BY OTHER LARGER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. AT THIS TIME, IT IS NOT
CLEAR THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE DIRECT IMPACTS ON HAWAI`I.
AT MOST, THE TRADES WOULD BE DISTURBED FOR A TIME--PERHAPS QUITE
SOME TIME DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE EDDIES LINGER OVER HAWAI`I`S
PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE DISTURBANCE OF THE TRADES WOULD
BOTH DECREASE WIND SPEEDS AND RAINFALL TOTALS.


CISCO

$$






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