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561
FXHW01 KWNH 251205
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VALID 00Z SUN OCT 26 2014 - 00Z SUN NOV 02 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN FLOW
ACROSS HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE PACIFIC BUT THE FORECAST APPEARS TO
HAVE STABILIZED IN TERMS OF AGREEMENT/CONTINUITY FOR THE ISLANDS
AND VICINITY.  EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
OVER 150W SHOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF WEAKENING OF TRADES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND EVENTUALLY REACHING A POSITION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED TRADES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
 LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY FOR
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY AROUND
FRI.  RIDGING ALOFT IN THE VICINITY SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE INTO MIDWEEK.  THEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND
A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A
CONSOLIDATING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL SOMEWHAT
LATE IN THE WEEK.

RAUSCH

$$






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