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408
FXHW01 KWNH 261227
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
726 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 00Z THU NOV 27 2014 - 00Z THU DEC 04 2014

THE LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLY AGREE THAT SEVERAL
POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE CELLS WILL REINFORCE COOLER AND
PREDOMINANTLY DRIER TRADES OVER THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS.
PREFER A MODEL AND ENSEMBLE COMPOSITE BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD.
FORECAST SPREAD AND IMPLIED UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS THE PACIFIC BY DAYS 6/7 HEADING INTO NEXT MIDWEEK. THIS
LENDS TO AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BASED SOLUTION AND YOU CAN GLEAN FROM A
PREFERRED AND MORE COMPATABLE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MIX THAT
TROUGH ENERGIES WORKING TOWARD/TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO DRAG A TRAILING FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
AND ALLOW FOR A MORE FAVORABLE LEAD RETURN MOISTURE FEED BACK UP
INTO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SCHICHTEL

$$






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