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381
FXCA20 KWBC 161051
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
651 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A
TUTT TO THE EAST...FAVORING A MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CAP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT TO THE
EAST...SHALLOW CONVECTION IS CLUSTERING  TO THE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLES. AS THEY EMBED IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY
TRADES...THE CLOUD CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
LEEWARD INTO THE VIRGIN ISLES....FAVORING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
WILL THEN HELP SUSTAIN DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID/UPPER PATTERN IS TO REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK...WITH RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TUTT TO THE EAST HOLDING
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN ON SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN...AND THIS IS
TO CONTINUE INHIBITING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. AT LOW
LEVELS...CLUSTERS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLES
ARE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS IS TO FAVOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DIURNAL
CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVE
ACROSS VIEQUES-CULEBRAS-EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING AND
WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE TO RANGE BETWEEN 00-05MM/DAY WITH LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF 10-15MM OVER THE MOUNTAINS/EL YUNQUE RAINFOREST.

PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND IS TO THEN EVOLVE AS SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXIT THE SOUTHERN USA AND
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS/NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. INFLOW OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SUSTAIN GRADUAL EROSION OF MID LEVEL
RIDGE PATTERN HOLDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT
CRUMBLES...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS IS GOING TO COINCIDE
WITH SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS...BRINGING RELIEF TO
DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN.

DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GARCIA...SMN (MEXICO)
FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
$$






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