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306
FXAK02 KWNH 291832
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 02 2014 - 12Z THU NOV 06 2014


THE LAST COUPLE MAJOR DATA CYCLES OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN
FRAUGHT WITH ISSUES THAT PRECLUDE THE DIRECT INCORPORATION OF ANY
GIVEN OPERATIONAL SOLUTION--GFS AND ECMWF, INCLUDED. THE NOISIEST
AREA IS THE STRETCH OF PACIFIC OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE PANHANDLE
AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE BEHAVIOR OF A WAVE LIFTING TOWARD THE
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE MAIN CASUALTY OF THE MODEL
DIVERGENCE. ELECTED TO USE AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 ECMWF AND
ECENS MEAN IN AN ATTEMPT TO COME UP WITH A MIDDLE GROUND. THE
ROBUST INCORPORATION OF THE ECENS MEAN--WHICH BECOMES THE SOLE
GUIDANCE AFTER DAY 6--HELPS TO MITIGATE THE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE
UPSTREAM AS WELL. THE NEXT BIG WAVE PACKET APPROACHING KAMCHATKA
IS HANDLED DISPARATELY BY THE OPERATIONAL VERSUS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS LOWER PRESSURES PRECIPITOUSLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND NORTHEAST RUSSIA, WHILE THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS--PARTICULARLY THE ECENS MEAN--TRACK THE LOW CENTER
EASTWARD AT A LOWER LATITUDE--CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR NOVEMBER.


CISCO

$$






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