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[Printable]
855
FXUS64 KOUN 241208
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
708 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED WWR/GAG/CSM/HBR THIS MORNING WITH
VFR CEILINGS. FRONT SHOULD REACH OTHER SITES BY 15-16Z. POST
FRONTAL PRECIP HAS WEAKENED SOME THIS MORNING...BUT MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOWER TO PNC.

OTHERWISE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.


&&




.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SMALL AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE FA BY 4-5 AM.  WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION.

VERY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAINLY AFTER 4 AM. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONT THIS MORNING BUT MAINLY UNDER
40 MPH.

00Z ARW MODEL IS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS
IS LIKELY OVERDONE...AT LEAST QPF...BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ~18Z.

AFTER A COOL START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
QUICKLY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL ELEVATE FIRE DANGER.

SATURDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
DAY...AT LEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS HAVE
SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH...BUT STRONG HEATING AND
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS...SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST OF FEW STORMS
NEAR A DRYLINE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY...WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
SATURDAY`S CONVECTION. IT STILL APPEARS THE EASTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WHILE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ARE DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS.

COOLER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  51  84  61 /  40   0   0  10
HOBART OK         77  48  86  62 /  10   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  80  51  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           74  48  86  60 /  10   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  48  83  59 /  50   0   0  10
DURANT OK         78  52  83  57 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




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