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FGUS74 KTSA 061922
ESFTSA
ARC007-015-033-047-087-131-143-OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-
079-091-097-101-105-107-111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-
147-070730-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
122 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD CONDITIONS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS SPRING. FLOODING IN THIS AREA USUALLY OCCURS IN
RESPONSE TO SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENTS. HOWEVER, THE ARKANSAS RIVER MAY
FLOOD IN RESPONSE TO MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
NO INDICATIONS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS TO ALTER THE FLOOD POTENTIAL
OF THE AREA. MANY CURRENT HYDROLOGIC INDICATORS REFLECT AN ONGOING DROUGHT
THAT HAS GRIPPED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR SEVERAL YEARS. HOWEVER...EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS HAVE GOTTEN MORE RELIEF OVER THE LAST YEAR
COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER WEST.

PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE LAST 90 DAYS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS HAVE BEEN BELOW TO WELL-BELOW AVERAGE. MOST OF THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED
25 PERCENT TO 75 PERCENT OF THE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING THE LAST THREE
MONTHS. A SMALL AREA OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS RECEIVED 75 PERCENT TO 90
PERCENT OF THE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...SOIL MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS GENERALLY REFLECTS THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST THREE MONTHS. THE
SOIL MOISTURE IN THIS AREA IS RELATIVELY LOW...WITH ESTIMATES BETWEEN THE 30TH
AND 10TH PERCENTILES. SOIL MOISTURE IS ALSO LOW ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND IS
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED BETWEEN THE 30TH AND 20TH PERCENTILES.

ACCORDING TO THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...STREAMFLOWS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART
OF ARKANSAS ARE BELOW NORMAL TO MUCH-BELOW NORMAL...WITH DISCHARGES LESS THAN
THE 10TH PERCENTILE.  STREAMS IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ARE FLOWING AT NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...WITH ISOLATED STATIONS REPORTING BELOW NORMAL DISCHARGES BELOW
25 PERCENT OF NORMAL. STREAMS AND RIVERS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA ARE RUNNING AT
BELOW NORMAL TO MUCH-BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...THERE IS A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF GAGES REPORTING BELOW NORMAL FLOWS...WITH VALUES BETWEEN THE
10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILES. GAGES ON THE RED RIVER AND IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING EXTREMELY LOW FLOWS...WITH STREAMFLOWS BETWEEN THE 10TH AND
1ST PERCENTILES.

RESERVOIR STORAGE IN OKLAHOMA CURRENTLY VARIES BETWEEN THE STRUCTURES IN THE
ARKANSAS RIVER SYSTEM AND THOSE IN THE RED RIVER SYSTEM. IN THE AGGREGATE...THE
RESERVOIRS IN OKLAHOMA HAVE 109 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE AVAILABLE
AT THIS TIME ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS. AVAILABLE CAPACITY
IN THE ARKANSAS SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 104 PERCENT OF DESIGNED FLOOD CONTROL
STORAGE. AVAILABLE CAPACITY IN THE RED RIVER SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 117 PERCENT
OF DESIGN FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE. 100 PERCENT OF DESIGN FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE IS
ALSO AVAILABLE IN THE WHITE RIVER BASIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE 20 FEBRUARY 2014 CPC SPRING /MAR-APR-MAY/ OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES
FOR ABOVE...BELOW...AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS
ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR OF 4 MARCH 2014 INDICATES LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 44 IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ARE EXPERIENCING MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/
CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE CPC U.S. MONTHLY DROUGHT OUTLOOK OF 28 FEBRUARY 2014 INDICATES THAT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR INTENSIFY IN THE D1 AREA DURING MARCH 2014.


$$








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