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000 FXUS64 KTSA 251232 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 632 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...REACHING TUL AROUND 18-19Z...AND MLC AND FSM A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. A FAIRLY LARGE PATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD IS MOVING SOUTH FROM KANSAS AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES IN THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SA && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/ DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS..DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA TODAY...THEN MOVES EAST. UPPER LOW STAYS FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST THAT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS REMAIN HIGH / DRY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER THANKSGIVING THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE. TEMPERATURE WELL INTO 60S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. H500 RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...A SIGNIFICANT HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST STATES. BACKING LOWER LEVEL FLOW NEARLY GUARANTEES PRECIP FROM TX REACHING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND SPREADING NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF AT ODDS OVER HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST. CONSENSUS SOLUTION USED. SIGNIFICANT COLD ON THE WEATHER HORIZON ABOUT THIS TIME NEXT WEEK AS A MAJOR LEAGUE RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE WEST COAST..AND EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 58 35 55 37 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 60 32 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 62 34 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 57 32 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 55 29 49 28 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 56 32 48 31 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 58 32 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 55 32 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 F10 59 33 55 36 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 63 35 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...02 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...02