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[Printable]
819
FXUS64 KOHX 290820
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
320 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS MORNING. T-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE VERY
LOW AND PATCHY FOG WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE FCST FOR THE
EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS MORNING.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TN.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK WEAK WITH MINIMAL CAPE EXPECTED. WILL
LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FCST FOR TODAY.

MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE BAHAMAS
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND ACTUALLY BLOCK THE MOISTURE CHANNEL AND
PREVENT ANY PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT. AS A RESULT...THE MID
STATE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME AND WILL SEE GOOD
SHOWER AND TSTM CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TODAY AS THE
APPARENT SUBSIDENCE LEADS TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND TEMPS REACHING
THE LOWER TO MID 90S. NOT AS HOT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVES IN.

IN THE EXT FCST...MONDAY WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A HOT AND LESS
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND WESTWARD FROM THE
BAHAMAS. BUT...SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS THE RIDGE IS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED AND WEAK WESTERLIES
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS TN.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE A GOOD 7 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. STILL NOT SOLD THOUGH ON JUST HOW STRONG THE RIDGING
WILL BE. THUS...WILL SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT THE MEX AND LEAN JUST A TOUCH
TOWARD THE EURO AND WPC NUMERICS.

OTW...TROPICS TO CONTINUE TO BEHAVE...ORGANIZED ACTIVITY NEAR THE
MAINLAND IS NOT EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      94  72  87  71 /  05  10  60  60
CLARKSVILLE    93  70  86  70 /  05  20  50  60
CROSSVILLE     88  67  85  67 /  10  05  50  60
COLUMBIA       94  72  87  71 /  05  20  60  60
LAWRENCEBURG   94  71  87  71 /  05  20  60  60
WAVERLY        93  71  86  70 /  05  20  60  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






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