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926
FXUS64 KOHX 241143
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
643 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

CIRRUS GRADUALLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST THIS MORNING BUT
SOME LOW CLOUDS NOW SPREADING SOUTHEAST FROM WEST KY. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH IMPACT TODAY WITH FEW STRATOCU AROUND 4K FT AND
SOME CIRRUS. PATCHY FOG WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS TO CKV/CSV
EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT CALM WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

..NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ITS
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
TRAVERSE MIDDLE TN TODAY...WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLOUD COVER RESULTING
FROM IT. WV ALSO SHOWS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL STEER A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS MIDDLE TN ON SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...AND
ACTUALLY WE SHOULD WARM UP IN TEMPS FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY AS
850MB TEMPS RISE FROM AROUND 10 TO 13 DEGREES C. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS THAT WILL RESULT SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
TODAY AND FROM THE LOW-UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY DESPITE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM-UP AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
DEVELOPS A SFC LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE MONDAY. SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY FROM SUN INTO MON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND
AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST OF MIDDLE TN. REALLY GOOD MIXING AND GUSTY
SW WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S EAST TO THE
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. NASHVILLE`S RECORD HIGH FOR MONDAY IS 84 DEGREES
SET WAY BACK IN 1940. WE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THAT WITH A FORECAST
OF 83 GOING RIGHT NOW. CROSSVILLE`S RECORD FOR MONDAY IS 81 SET BACK
IN 1963...WITH A FORECAST OF 78 GOING FOR NOW.

AFTER THESE WONDERFUL TEMPS...THE UPPER MIDWEST LOW WILL DROP A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYING OUT ACROSS THE MID STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z EURO
AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS PLACEMENT AND
POST-FRONTAL PRECIP. THUS RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TUESDAY...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WARMER TEMPS
STILL FOR TUESDAY WITH THE LAG IN PRECIP EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT
THE MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT FAR OUT. WILL ALSO TRIM BACK THE
INHERITED TUESDAY POPS A TAD AND INCREASE THE CHC POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND...A SECONDARY UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHC FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THRU THRS
NIGHT...BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS THIS FAR
OUT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS A
RESULT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55






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