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814
FXUS64 KOHX 211800
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1200 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
STRATUS DECK ATTEMPTING TO ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ADVANCING LINE OF CLOUDINESS EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM
CSV SOUTHWEST THROUGH PULASKI. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
STRATUS LAYER ADVANCING AND OVERTAKING THE AREA...BUT NOT UNTIL
THIS EVENING. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADJUST THE SKY GRIDS TO SHOW SOME
ADDED CLOUDINESS FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
OTW...WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...
STRATUS DECK WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA BY 03Z OR SO.
CIGS WILL INITIALLY BE AT THE VFR LEVELS BUT WILL LOWER WITH
TIME. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS NEAR CSV AFT 06Z. OTW...WE COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE BETWEEN
12Z AND 18Z WITH MODERATE FOG AND IFR CIGS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED BR TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BNA AND CKV EARLY TODAY (THROUGH 14Z). AFTER THAT, EXPECT VFR AT ALL
MID STATE TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN OVC
DECK OF ISENTROPICALLY-INDUCED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS EVENING, AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST DECK OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE BASSES AROUND 3500 FT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21






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