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604
FXUS64 KOHX 242004
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
204 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS 975MB SURFACE LOW NOW WELL OFF INTO CANADA
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING ACROSS THE MID STATE. WINDS HAVE
CORRESPONDINGLY BEGUN SUBSIDING WITH GUSTS NOW DOWN TO AROUND 25
KTS. THUS WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY AT 21Z INSTEAD OF 00Z IN
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WITH COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF
THE CWA...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AND FALL SOME 20 TO 30
DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS BY MORNING...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A STRONG EAST COAST SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD
MAY CLIP THE PLATEAU COUNTIES. THUS WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
TIMING AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE. WAA INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE
CWA. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE
30S MAY BRING ANOTHER LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE PLATEAU COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.

THANKSGIVING CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS WEEK
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO WARM THROUGH THE 40S. HOWEVER...12Z
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SWITCH TO A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND MAKES THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY. SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S AND EVEN 60S...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      35  50  31  51 /   0  05  10  30
CLARKSVILLE    33  45  28  50 /   0  05  10  30
CROSSVILLE     35  47  33  46 /   0  05  20  20
COLUMBIA       34  51  30  52 /   0  05  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   35  50  32  53 /   0  05  10  20
WAVERLY        34  47  29  51 /   0  05  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TNZ005>011-
023>033-056>064-075-077-093>095.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER






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