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128
FXUS64 KOHX 210829
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TALKED BRIEFLY LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT
WOULD WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.  WHILE IT`S DOING
THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST IT WILL BRING TO THE MID-STATE IS
SOME CLOUDS.  THE RAINS HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE EAST.

EVERYTHING ELSE IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT.  ZERO POPS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS THINGS DRY OUT AND RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS SOME
DRY CP AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IF
THERE`S ANYTHING I HAVE SOME CONSTERNATION ABOUT IT`S TODAY`S
HIGHS. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS 3-4 DEGREES BELOW MOST
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WILL RUN WITH THE MOS AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS. EITHER WAY WE`RE LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA
WITH COPIOUS SUNSHINE. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE IT DOES PRODUCE A SURFACE FEATURE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA...BY THE TIME ANY OF THE ENERGY GETS TO THE MS RIVER...THE
SYSTEM IS NOTHING.  WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND THOUGH.  WE SHOULD BE AT
SEASONAL NORMS BY FRIDAY...AND BY MONDAY WE MAY VERY WELL BE NEAR 80
DEGREES AT NASHVILLE AIRPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  I ADVERTISED YESTERDAY THAT THIS WARMUP MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...BUT THE LONG RANGE EURO
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THIS FRONT WASHING OUT LIKE THE THURS-FRIDAY
SYSTEM.  EITHER WAY...THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT THIS WARMUP...SO WILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ALL MOS VALUES ATTM.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z DISCUSSION.

COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE BY 12Z. THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MODELS STILL INDICATING
LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BY 12Z. TOVER VALUES ARE NEAR ZERO BNA...
AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR CSV AND CKV. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE
SOME LIGHT FOG LATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCT TO PERHAPS BKN CLOUDINESS
DURING THAT PERIOD. CLDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFT 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  43  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    68  41  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     63  40  58  37 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       69  43  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   70  43  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        70  43  63  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






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