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540
AXNT20 KNHC 210317
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE SW PORTION OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CENTER NEAR 20N95W AS OF 2100 UTC. THIS
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE ENE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 89W-96W WHILE WEAKER
CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF 29N...E OF 89W. INTERESTS IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE CHANCE OF FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS
LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE
TITLED...IRVING AND MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR
THOSE AREAS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS FORECAST BY METEO-FRANCE IS
FQNT50 LFPW. THE WEB ADDRESS FOR METEO-FRANCE IS WWW.METEO.FR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM 16N46W TO 04N50W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS STILL PREVAILING IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-
15N BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 07N13W AND CONTINUES TO 07N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
07N17W TO 08N24W TO 05N33W TO 08N43W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE AT 08N51W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
06N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN
24W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN
50W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W IS
AFFECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. FAIR
WEATHER IS PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 87W IS OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO PERSIST AND SPREAD E OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

05-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PREVAILING OVER THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH PAIRED WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN
WATERS S OF 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL RELATED TO THE 1008 MB LOW OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES WEAKENING QUICKLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN WATERS AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. EXPECT SIMILAR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN
TO BE OVER THE ISLAND IN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO 28N70W.
A COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED FROM THE END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING N INTO THE NW ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 36N-45N BETWEEN 48W-52W. A SURFACE
TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 26N67W TO 25N66W WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THIS FEATURE. TO THE E...A 1013 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N55W WITH A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N55W TO
22N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-33N BETWEEN 43W-
54W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A 996 MB LOW N OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS LOW IS PAIRED AT UPPER
LEVELS WITH A LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N24W ENHANCING CONVECTION. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS
OF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 31N12W TO 21N20W. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE E
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA




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