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129
FXUS64 KMOB 310354
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1054 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
310600Z TAF
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. 77/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE IS ALREADY 7 DEGREES LESS THAN
FORECAST HERE AT MOB...WE WON`T CHANGE THE LOWS FOR TONIGHT. WE
BELIEVE THE DESCENT WILL SLOW DOWN LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION GETS CLOSE TO ZERO AND WE START SEEING SOME LATENT HEAT
BEING RELEASED TO COUNTER THE DECREASING TEMPERATURE NEAR THE SUFACE.
77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
310000Z TAF
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. 77/BD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ON THE WEATHER MAPS
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ORIENTED FROM
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO EASTERN TEXAS. UPSTREAM...A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE THE LEADING
EDGE OF A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. BEFORE
THEN...INITIAL HIGH WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES
TONIGHT. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS BELOW SEASONAL BY 3
TO 6 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. NUMBERS RANGING FROM 38 TO 43 OVER THE
INTERIOR TO 47 TO 52 ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SURGES RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONT...LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LATEST FORECAST
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET. DUE TO
MIXING...THIS SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. LATEST GRIDDED WIND
GUSTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE SHORT OF THE 30+ MPH RANGE NEEDED FOR
WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCE. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES 72 TO 77 ON FRIDAY WILL BE SITTING NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER. GET THE COATS READY FOR THE WEEKEND. /10

THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST CUTS OFF OVER UPSTATE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA. IN FACT...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL DROP AN IMPRESSIVE 60
METERS FROM 00Z-12Z SAT. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.

WHILE THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON SATURDAY...A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH ONLY THE
COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH 60/61. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF
20-30MPH THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALSO ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR.
WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 34/JFB

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES COMMENCES ON SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY WITH NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERS IN A WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS. AN ELONGATED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH A PIECE OF THE ENERGY
BREAKING OFF AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD OUR AREA. THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE ON EXACTLY WHEN THIS FEATURE WILL
AFFECT THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW END RAIN
CHANCES (30%) FOR WED-THU UNTIL WE CAN BETTER PINPOINT WHEN THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. 34/JFB

AVIATION...
31.00Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT.
BASES OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY LOOK TO
RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 KFT. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS POSES THE GREATEST HAZARD TO
ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES. /10

MARINE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW...ROUGH CONDITIONS
ON BAYS AND SOUNDS...AND BUILDING SEA STATES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL OF GALE
CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS EXISTS FOR
THE OPEN ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR MOVES OFF THE MAINLAND. FORECASTERS HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THE LONGER AND MORE SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
FETCH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WHERE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS INDICATE 8 TO 10 FEET IN THE 20
TO 60 NAUTICAL MILE ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE STRONG HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. SEAS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED. /10

FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TEMPORARILY DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY BUT WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. DISPERSIONS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 70 TO 80 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES OVER 75 POSSIBLE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE TOMORROW...AND LIKELY DIP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND ERC VALUES NEAR 26
MAY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      46  74  37  59  35 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   49  75  41  61  38 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      52  74  43  60  41 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   40  74  36  58  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  40  72  34  57  32 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      40  72  34  57  31 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   38  77  38  61  34 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     GALE WATCH FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...
     NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...
     SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...

&&

$$









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