948
FXUS64 KMOB 040536
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1136 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013

.AVIATION (06Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ALTHOUGH WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CEILING NEAR 3.5 KFT BY
23Z.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN
SOUTHEAST WINDS 7-10 KNOTS DEVELOP BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. /29

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...MODERATE CCA MAINTAINED THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY BUT WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGIN TO RELAX AND WITH FULL
SUNSHINE TEMPS ROSE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR BUT SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER. LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AS THE SFC
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...AND TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND. HIGHS TOMORROW
CLIMBING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S ALONG THE COAST. NO PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL PROBABLY SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST IN THE INCREASING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
12/DS

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
ON TUESDAY....PARTICULARLY THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF WHICH DEPICT A SHALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULFMEX
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE ATTENDANT
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR INTRUSION CURRENTLY IN PLACE BEHIND THE LATEST
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT PLUNGED DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULFMEX...WE
THINK THE DEEP MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
LIMITED. FOR THE 12Z CYCLE WE DECIDED TO STICK WITH CHANCE POPS EVEN
THOUGH THE GFS HAS TRENDED DOWN WITH POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA ON THE LATEST RUN AND IS SHOWING LESS RAINFALL OVERALL. WILL
GIVE IT ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE BEFORE WE TRIM POPS TOO SEVERELY...BUT
RIGHT NOW WE AGREE WITH THE NOTION THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHER POPS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE WE MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, THE MUCAPES FROM THE GFS ARE STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE AND GIVEN
THE FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN (COUPLED ALSO WITH THE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY) WE THINK
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WONT BE HEAVY EITHER...GENERALLY ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR POSSIBLY EVEN LESS FOR THE EVENT.  WE CLEAR OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A COOL AND DRY TREND THROUGH THURSDAY THEN WE WARMUP FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH READINGS BACK CLOSE TO OR MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. WE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE NEXT SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 05/JG

&&

.MARINE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY EARLY MONDAY...AND INCREASES STEADILY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARINE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE AND PERSISTING INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE STRONGER WINDS AND RESULTANT HIGH
SEAS. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY
EVENING. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS LIKE WE ARE
SEEING TODAY TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL COME ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THAT NEXT COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIDESPREAD HEAVY SOAKING RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS NEXT PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WE DO THINK DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE HIGH TUESDAY
GIVEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS.  05/JG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      32  67  55  70  39 /  00  00  20  40  20
PENSACOLA   35  65  56  71  42 /  00  00  20  30  20
DESTIN      44  61  58  66  45 /  00  00  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   28  67  51  69  38 /  00  00  20  50  20
WAYNESBORO  29  69  53  69  35 /  00  00  20  40  10
CAMDEN      29  66  49  67  37 /  00  00  20  50  10
CRESTVIEW   29  65  47  72  41 /  00  00  20  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/05