weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  
[Printable]
390
FXUS64 KMOB 210936
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE AL/GA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY 06Z
TUE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING MID TO UPPER TROF SHIFTING EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUE MORNING.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS EAST
AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WITH THIS PATTERN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING EXTREME
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING
POSSIBLY REACHING WESTERN SECTIONS OF WAYNE AND PERRY COUNTIES IN SE
MS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. FOR TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF TO
THE WEST SHIFTS EAST MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT
EASTWARD ALLOWING BETTER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO SHIFT EAST OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT SHIFTING FURTHER TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MORNING. AT THE SFC A BETTER ONSHORE FLOW ALSO DEVELOPS LATER TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO BETTER LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MOST
OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUES MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL STAY
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID 70S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A
TRAILING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES RESULT IN SBCAPES NEAR 1600 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON.  AT
THIS TIME STILL EXPECT GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS.  SINCE FORCING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE TO GOOD
CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...WITH SMALL POPS TUESDAY EVENING.  DRY
CONDITIONS FOLLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY. /29

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN UPPER TROF ADVANCES FROM
THE PLAINS INTO MAINLY THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY
WHILE THE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES FAIRLY ZONAL.  A
SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON THURSDAY
AND PERSISTS WHILE A SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS A TRAILING
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE WEAK FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND ADVANCES INTO THE
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND STALLS.  UPPER
RIDGING MEANWHILE ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BUILDS INTO THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES.  DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WILL HAVE SMALL POPS
BEGINNING FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DUE TO A
COMBINATION ISOLATED SEA BREEZE INITIATED CONVECTION AND THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22.06Z FOLLOWED BY
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 22.12Z. EXPECT INCREASING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ALSO FORMING MOSTLY AFTER 22.06Z. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 6 KNOTS EARLY TODAY SHIFTING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST
AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTING
MOSTLY SOUTH 5 TO 8 KNOTS EARLY TUE MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WELL NORTH OF
THE COAST APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE BY EARLY WED MORNING
LEADING TO A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE WED
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTHWEST TO
WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING. LATER IN THE WEEK HIGH PRES NEAR
THE SFC BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUN. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE SUN INTO MON NEXT WEEK WITH
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE
SUN THROUGH MON. FOR NOW THE SECOND FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 FEET OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  57  79  60  81 /  05  10  40  20  05
PENSACOLA   74  58  77  62  80 /  05  10  30  20  05
DESTIN      72  60  75  63  77 /  05  10  30  10  05
EVERGREEN   80  55  81  58  80 /  05  10  50  20  05
WAYNESBORO  80  57  80  55  81 /  10  20  50  10  05
CAMDEN      81  56  80  57  80 /  05  10  50  20  00
CRESTVIEW   80  55  81  57  83 /  05  10  40  20  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE