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677
FXUS64 KMOB 192111
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...[TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH AL
STRETCHING WEST INTO SOUTHEAST MS. FURTHER SOUTH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF DAUPHIN
ISLAND AND MOBILE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. FOR INLAND AREAS THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST LATER TODAY WITH A FEW
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
COMBINED WITH BETTER SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WELL INLAND WHERE  LESS
CLOUDS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS LATER TODAY. FOR LATER THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SHIFTING SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WITH MOST OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEAR THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MAV AND MET AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.
32/EE

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE...MOSTLY
OVER INLAND AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...[SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...IT WILL BE RAIN-FREE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE AS TWO SURFACE LOWS CONVERGE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A
LARGE 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...SENDING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER STAYS AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 64 TO 69 DEGREES...
EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY NORTH UPPER FLOW
WILL PERSIST SUNDAY BEFORE THAT 500 MB RIDGE TO THE WEST OF US MOVES
EAST INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY ON THE HEELS OF
PERTURBATIONS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. WE CAN SEE
THIS WEAK FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL REGION BY OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT IT WILL NOT DO MUCH FOR RAIN SINCE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND LIFTED
INDEX WILL STAY AROUND -1 TO -2. ONCE IT SWEEPS THE REGION THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WILL
CLIMB TO +4 INDICATING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN. WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...THAT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY KEEPING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FORMING A WEAK LOW
ALOFT OFF THE FLORIDA COASTAL BEND IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIURNAL EVOLUTION OF THE
SEABREEZE ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL. 77/BD

&&

.AVIATION...[19.18Z ISSUANCE]...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 20.18Z
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY EAST
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GENERATE
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY. WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AT TIMES
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OCCURRING
MOSTLY OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET EARLY TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONGER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN FORM A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDWEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  88  68  88  69 /  30  10  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   71  87  71  88  72 /  30  10  05  05  05
DESTIN      73  85  73  86  73 /  30  10  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   65  86  64  89  65 /  30  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  65  89  64  89  65 /  20  10  05  05  05
CAMDEN      66  86  64  90  65 /  30  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   66  87  67  89  64 /  30  10  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&

$$









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