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058 FXUS64 KMOB 030940 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 440 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013 ...HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF... .SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...PATTERN SIMILAR TODAY AS IT WAS YESTERDAY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST AND WEST ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATERS 1.7-1.9 INCHES) STILL RESIDES ALONG COASTAL NW FL/AL WEST INTO SE MS. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES 30-40% ACROSS THOSE AREAS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR INLAND SW AL. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OFFSHORE AS GREATER THAN 2 INCH PWATS BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THERE IS NO DISCERNABLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MLCAPES AVERAGE 750-1000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT. BLENDED MAV/MET FOR TEMPS WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S FAR INLAND WITH LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON FRIDAY...WITHIN A NARROW MID LEVEL WEAKNESS BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT MORE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CLUSTERING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST/MISSISSIPPI SOUND. THE GFS STILL SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE RISK OF INITIAL IMPACTS => INCREASED WINDS...BUILDING SEAS/SWELL/TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING AND SQUALLS DUE TO INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND/AL AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED. .LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD VERY WELL BE DEALING WITH AN APPROACHING OR LAND FALLING TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE THREAT ZONE BEING ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE APPARENT STRENGTH AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN/SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE HOSTILE AS AN UPPER TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN SQUALLS/STRONG GUSTY WINDS/COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK...ISOLATED...SHORT LIVED TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN OUTER RAIN BANDS SPIRALING IN ACROSS THE COAST. AFTER LANDFALL...THE LOW MERGES WITH FRONT AND LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS EASING. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE DAILY HIGHS. THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS OVER THE INTERIOR...WHEN LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S THEN. /10 && .AVIATION (03.12Z ISSUANCE)...DEVELOPING STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IS GENERALLY VFR BASED AND PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS...WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY MVFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. 34/JFB && .MARINE...THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM COULD BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY IF THE CURRENT ORGANIZING TRENDS CONTINUE. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIKELY MOVING ASHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH TAFB...PREFER TO USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET WHICH BRINGS THE LOW NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST SHOWS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A MORE PREDOMINATE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY. IF A FURTHER EAST TRACK VERIFIES...THEN MORE OF THE MARINE AREA WILL SEE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. CAPPED MAX WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS...BUT ALSO POSSIBLE OVER INLAND BAYS. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE BIGGER SWELL (SEAS 10 FEET PLUS OVER GULF ZONES) LIKELY APPROACHING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND. A COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. 34/JFB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 87 72 87 74 80 / 40 30 30 20 60 PENSACOLA 86 72 87 74 82 / 30 30 30 30 60 DESTIN 85 73 86 74 82 / 30 30 30 40 60 EVERGREEN 88 65 88 69 83 / 10 10 20 20 50 WAYNESBORO 87 67 87 70 82 / 20 10 20 20 60 CAMDEN 87 64 88 68 83 / 10 10 10 10 30 CRESTVIEW 88 65 87 70 82 / 20 20 30 20 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$