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575
FXUS64 KMOB 020431
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN OR A HEAVIER ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MIN
TEMPS ON TRACK FOR LOWS OF MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S AT
THE COAST. 12/DS

.AVIATION UPDATE (02/06Z UPDATE)...TERMINAL FORECASTS ON TRACK AS
WELL. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE. A FEW ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT...AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...BUT MOST OF
THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD IMPACT AREAS NORTH AND INLAND FROM
THE PRIMARY TERMINALS. 12/DS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BASE OF A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF RESIDES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...ALLOWING SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO PASS
THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE (MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE ~ 1014 MILLIBARS) WAS SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE RECOVERED SINCE
THURSDAY...NOW NEAR 2 INCHES...01.12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THIS
CONTRIBUTION COMES FROM ALOFT WITH THE LOWER LEVELS STILL FAIRLY DRY.
RADAR SHOWS A SCATTERING OF RETURNS OVER MISSISSIPPI...BUT
OBSERVATIONS ARE ONLY INDICATING LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND AT BEST.

PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES AT THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE UPPER
TROF AND A WEAKLY DEFINED STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
COASTAL ZONES LOOKS TO PROVIDE WEAK LIFT IN THE NEAR TERM. GIVEN
LATEST RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...WILL GO WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE AT/LESS THAN 10%. FOR
SATURDAY...THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO MOISTEN UP THROUGH A DEEPER
COLUMN SUPPORTING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER 70S
COASTAL ZONES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 90. /10

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: LOW

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A SERIES OF WIGGLES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL WORK
WITH A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE ACROSS THE FA WILL
KEEP SKIES ON THE CLOUDY SIDE. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT INSTABILITY
OVER THE FA ...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO LIMITED INSOLATION
(HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM SOLUTION)...BUT LOOKING AT THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL TEND TO HAVE ENOUGH
OOMPH FOR THUNDER. ALSO WENT ABOVE SEASONAL WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
DUE TO THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
DECREASES SOMEWHAT OVER THE INTERIOR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
RECOVERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE WEAK SURFACE TROF NEAR THE
COAST FINALLY DISSIPATES BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.  CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY TREND TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES ON MONDAY THEN TREND GRADUALLY WARMER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
01.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST...EAST OF A
FRONTAL WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...ARE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST WITH ANY SHRA MOSTLY IN
THE VCNTY AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS AT HIGHER LEVELS...SO VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM. LIGHT WIND. /10

&&

.MARINE...A WEAKLY DEFINED SURFACE FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
RESULTS IN A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND FLOW WITH VARYING DIRECTION.
SMALL SEA STATES TO CONTINUE. A PREVAILING...LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH NOSES
WEST INTO THE GULF. SEAS CHANGE LITTLE. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS
LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  91  72  88  71 /  20  40  30  60  40
PENSACOLA   73  90  73  89  73 /  10  40  30  60  40
DESTIN      77  88  76  88  75 /  10  40  20  60  30
EVERGREEN   69  91  70  89  71 /  20  60  30  60  30
WAYNESBORO  66  90  69  88  69 /  30  60  40  60  30
CAMDEN      68  90  70  89  71 /  20  60  30  60  30
CRESTVIEW   69  91  71  89  71 /  10  50  30  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

10/16/29










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