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058
FXUS64 KMOB 030940
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013

...HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL GULF...

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...PATTERN SIMILAR TODAY AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST AND WEST
ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BEST MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATERS 1.7-1.9 INCHES) STILL RESIDES
ALONG COASTAL NW FL/AL WEST INTO SE MS. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES 30-40% ACROSS THOSE AREAS ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND FAR
INLAND SW AL. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OFFSHORE AS GREATER THAN 2 INCH
PWATS BEGIN TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THERE IS NO DISCERNABLE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND MLCAPES AVERAGE 750-1000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES
TONIGHT. BLENDED MAV/MET FOR TEMPS WHICH YIELDS GENERALLY UPPER 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S FAR INLAND WITH LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 34/JFB

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON FRIDAY...WITHIN A NARROW
MID LEVEL WEAKNESS BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOWER HEIGHTS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING
A BIT MORE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CLUSTERING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COAST/MISSISSIPPI SOUND. THE GFS STILL SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE RISK OF INITIAL IMPACTS => INCREASED
WINDS...BUILDING SEAS/SWELL/TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING AND SQUALLS DUE TO
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND/AL AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS PERIOD. STAY
TUNED.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...COULD
VERY WELL BE DEALING WITH AN APPROACHING OR LAND FALLING TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH THE THREAT ZONE BEING ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE APPARENT STRENGTH AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN/SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE HOSTILE AS AN UPPER TROF AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN
SQUALLS/STRONG GUSTY WINDS/COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF AND LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK...ISOLATED...SHORT LIVED TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN OUTER RAIN BANDS
SPIRALING IN ACROSS THE COAST.

AFTER LANDFALL...THE LOW MERGES WITH FRONT AND LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS EASING. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE DAILY HIGHS. THE COOLEST
PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS OVER
THE INTERIOR...WHEN LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER/MID
50S THEN. /10

&&

.AVIATION (03.12Z ISSUANCE)...DEVELOPING STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IS GENERALLY VFR BASED AND PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT AT THE FORECAST
TERMINALS...WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY
MVFR FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IT
APPEARS THE SYSTEM COULD BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY IF THE CURRENT ORGANIZING TRENDS CONTINUE. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...LIKELY MOVING ASHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ULTIMATE TRACK
AND INTENSITY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH TAFB...PREFER TO USE A BLEND
OF THE GFS/UKMET WHICH BRINGS THE LOW NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST SHOWS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A MORE
PREDOMINATE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY. IF A
FURTHER EAST TRACK VERIFIES...THEN MORE OF THE MARINE AREA WILL SEE
AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT DEVELOP BY SATURDAY. CAPPED MAX WINDS AT 30
KT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS...BUT ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND BAYS. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE
BIGGER SWELL (SEAS 10 FEET PLUS OVER GULF ZONES) LIKELY APPROACHING
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR
THE FORECAST CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE PREPARED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND
MOVES INLAND. A COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BY MONDAY WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      87  72  87  74  80 /  40  30  30  20  60
PENSACOLA   86  72  87  74  82 /  30  30  30  30  60
DESTIN      85  73  86  74  82 /  30  30  30  40  60
EVERGREEN   88  65  88  69  83 /  10  10  20  20  50
WAYNESBORO  87  67  87  70  82 /  20  10  20  20  60
CAMDEN      87  64  88  68  83 /  10  10  10  10  30
CRESTVIEW   88  65  87  70  82 /  20  20  30  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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