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777 FXUS62 KMLB 031325 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 925 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...MOSTLY DRY AGAIN TODAY BUT RIP CURRENT RISK STILL MODERATE... CURRENT-TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM KAREN HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS. KXMR 10Z SOUNDING AGAIN SHOWS A DRY PROFILE WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.21 INCHES AND A VERY WARM MID LEVEL WITH THE 700/500 MB TEMPERATURES RESPECTIVELY +9.4/-3.9C. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANY RAIN CHANCES AT ALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE DOWN AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND STILL ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE HERE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 8-12 MPH MOST PLACES. ONE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASED INVASION OF HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. CONTINUED DRY TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMO. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. && .AVIATION...VFR. DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SMALL AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD. ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA 8-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON FALLING BELOW 5 KTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...ENE WINDS INCREASING TO 7-12 KTS VEERING MORE ESE THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS FALLING BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3 FT GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE IN A CONTINUED LIGHT NE SWELL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY SMALL. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SEDLOCK