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054
FXUS62 KMLB 300732
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
332 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...A CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...BECOMING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND...

TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER
THIS AFT AND THEN BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS MAINLY INTO LATE AFT AND THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. ANY CONVECTION THAT RESULTS SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PAST MIDNIGHT AS
APPROACHING MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY AID IN LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
FRONT. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NE FL COAST
EARLY FRIDAY WILL PULL AN INITIAL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. SOME SPOTTY MORNING SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT STEADY CLEARING WITH
HIGHS MAKING IT TO AROUND 80. PRESENCE OF THE DRYER AIRMASS WL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT BRINGING THE COOLEST AIR SWD INTO THE
REGION SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHCS...HOWEVER
A NOTABLE INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG WITH DRYING AND A NOTICEABLE
AFTERNOON CHILL CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S SAT AFTN WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPS
WL QUICKLY FALL WITH SUNSET THROUGH THE 50S WITH LOWS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE 40S FOR ALL BUT THE BARRIER ISLANDS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
WINDS AS AN ADDED COMPONENT WL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

NEXT WEEK...A LARGE PROGRESSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY SUNDAY WL MIGRATE EWD TO THE MID ATLC COAST
MON AFTN. LOCAL WINDS WL STEADILY VEER ONSHORE...PROVIDING A
GRADUAL MODERATION IN AVBL MOISTURE AND TEMPS. BREEZY CONDS SUNDAY
WL ABATE SOMEWHAT...ESP ON MONDAY. SOME LOW TOPPED MARINE SHOWERS
WL BECOME PSBL TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLIES
SETTING UP UNDERNEATH A SLOWLY WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN A FEW AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO TONIGHT. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST FROM THE ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD FROM LATE AFT
INTO EARLY EVE WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION VCSH
IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE INTO TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND TOWARD THE REGION. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL FORM INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND...WHICH WILL ALLOW
WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO BECOME E/NE. ISOLATED OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFT INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

AS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W/NW BECOMING 10-15 KNOTS LATE/TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY AND UP TO 2-3
FEET OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT.

INITIAL HEADLINES EXPECTED FRIDAY OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT. AREA WIDE
ADVISORY CONDS ARE ADVERTISED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND PSG OF
THE STRONG COLD FRONT. ITS EXPECTED ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER INTO MON AND PERHAPS TUE DUE TO ROBUST GRADIENT WINDS AND
EVENTUALLY A DEVELOPED OPEN SWELL FETCH ASCD WITH STRONG POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EWD NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOTICEABLY DRYER CONDS WL OCCUR BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT FRI.
RH VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
INLAND FROM AROUND OSCEOLA NORTH. A STRONGER FRONT ON SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BRING MIN RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPR 20S
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE INLAND COUNTIES.
ERC VALUES WL NEED TO RISE TO A HIGHER OBSERVED LEVEL FOR INSTANTANEOUS
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TO BE MET...HOWEVER THE WIND AND RH VALUES
ADVERTISED HAVE NOT BEEN EXPERIENCED FOR AWHILE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  61  78  54 /  30  30  10   0
MCO  86  63  79  55 /  20  30  10   0
MLB  84  63  79  58 /  20  20  20   0
VRB  83  64  81  55 /  10  20  20   0
LEE  85  62  78  55 /  30  30  10   0
SFB  85  63  80  56 /  30  30  10   0
ORL  86  64  79  58 /  30  30  10   0
FPR  83  62  81  55 /  10  20  20   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST






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