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340
FXUS62 KMLB 231558 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1055 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SFC OBS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT HAS JUMPED NORTH OF THE AREA PLACING
EC FL SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOW CLOUDS FROM OSCEOLA/BREVARD
NORTHWARD WILL LIFT AND ALLOW SOME SFC HEATING. THIS WILL PRODUCE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WHICH SHOULD COME UP JUST
SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.

DESPITE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES THE REST
OF THE DAY. HAVE DRAWN 20 POP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND 30 POP
ELSEWHERE. WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY UPSTREAM TRIGGER FOR STORMS...EXCEPT DIURNAL
HEATING AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH GA...IT WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO
PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS A THEY LIFT N/NE AT 35 TO 40 MPH. ONE
OR TWO STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH THIS AFTN
MAINLY OSCEOLA NORTHWARD. CURRENT HWO HANDLES THIS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE ALLOWED LLWS TO EXPIRE IN THE TAFS AS MIXING BRINGS SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. MVFR CIGS MLB NORTHWARD WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR CATEGORY (035-045AGL) BY 18Z. SSE WINDS
15-18KT GUSTING TO 23-26KT. DIURNAL HEATING WILL GENERATE SOME AFTN
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR LIFTING N/NE. WILL NOT ADD TEMPO
GROUP YET AS COVERAGE LOOKS LOW BUT GIVEN ENOUGH SFC HEATING MAY
UPGRADE VCSH TO VCTS IN THE 18Z ISSUANCE. IFR/LIFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST/ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID ADVISORY CONDS CONTINUE OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH ROUGH SURF.
SE WINDS 25KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THIS AFTN AND SHIFT TO S/SE TONIGHT. THIS WILL CARRY THE HIGHER SEAS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AS ONSHORE COMPONENT BECOMES LONGSHORE
AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. CURRENT PLAN IS TO ALLOW SCA NEAR
SHORE TO EXPIRE AT 4PM BUT WILL REASSESS THAT DECISION BASED ON
CONDITIONS AND LATEST SEAS FCST FROM SWAN/NOAA WAVEWATCH.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  71  80  63 /  50  40  40  40
MCO  84  69  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
MLB  83  73  82  69 /  50  30  30  40
VRB  83  73  82  70 /  50  30  20  40
LEE  83  69  82  64 /  50  40  40  30
SFB  83  70  82  64 /  50  30  40  30
ORL  83  70  83  66 /  50  30  40  30
FPR  83  72  82  69 /  50  30  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

KELLY/SEDLOCK











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