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000 FXUS62 KMLB 260935 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 435 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009 .DISCUSSION... TODAY/TONIGHT...THE INITIAL COLD FRONT REACHING ACROSS S FL EARLY THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA/SPRINKLES EXTEND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS EC FL. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AS THANKSGIVING DAY WEARS ON...WITH MORNING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW AREAS OF LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS ROUGHLY SOUTHERN HALF OF EC FL EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM N-S DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF H85 TROF. A SURGE OF NWLY WINDS AND STRONGER CAA BY THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...RANGING FROM LOWER 40S NORTHERN INTERIOR TO MID/UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EC FL...XCP A FEW NR 50/LOW 50S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY REACHING LOWER 70S NORTH/MID 70S SOUTH. FRI/SAT...THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH WILL SWEEP THRU THE FL PENINSULA BY DAYBREAK FRI. A STRONG POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WX FACTOR FOR THE FL PENINSULA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...GENERATING A DEEP NWRLY FLOW STATEWIDE. THESE WINDS WILL USHER A COLD/DRY AIR MASS INTO THE STATE...SENDING MAX/MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEG BLO CLIMO. MIN TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN ABV THE 50F DEG MARK ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...AND WILL FALL AS LOW AS THE U30S/L40S N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. DESPITE FULL SUN...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE ON FRI...ABOUT 10-15F BLO CLIMO. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON SAT AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...BUT EVEN SO ONLY THE TREASURE COAST IS EXPECTED TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE 70F MARK. SUN/MON...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFF THE SE COAST BY DAYBREAK SUN...ALLOWING THE PREVAILING H100-H85 FLOW TO QUICKLY VEER TO THE E/SE BY SUN AFTN. AFTER A COLD START SUN MORNING...TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR CLIMO BY SUN AFTN. STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIALLY...KEEPING MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO BUT STILL A GOOD 5-10F WARMER THAN SAT NIGHT. FULL TEMP RECOVERY ON MON AS WINDS VEER TO THE SW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. TUE/WED...MEDIUM RANGE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO GENERATE THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FROM A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE NE PAC. HOWEVER...BOTH INDICATE THE MAIN STORM CENTER WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM...WHILE AN H85-H50 RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE NW CARIB. WITHOUT THE SUPPORT OF THE LOW...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING THRU THE STATE UNTIL A SECONDARY LOW CAN FORM IN THE GOMEX ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CRANK IT THRU THE PENINSULA. NEITHER MODEL INDICATES THIS HAPPENING WITHIN THE CURRENT FCST RANGE. WILL CAP POPS AT 40% FOR NOW AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS STILL NEEDS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PAC NW. NEVERTHELESS...RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS SUGGESTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PRECIP EVENT. MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO. && .AVIATION...AREAS MVFR TO LCL IFR/LIFR WITH MORE PROBLEMS DUE TO LOW CIGS VERSUS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. MOST AREAS BECOMING PREVAILING VFR BY 14-15Z WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO BKN035-045...EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM N-S. && .MARINE...NWLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN BY THIS EVENING WITH A SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS NEAR SHORE MAY ALSO REQUIRE CAUTIONARY HEADLINES AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE NEED TO EXPAND SCA. FRI-MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS FRI AS A MODERATE TO FRESH NW BREEZE PREVAILS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT...CHOPPY SEAS 3-5FT NEARSHORE...6-8FT OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...ALLOWING THE PGRAD TO SLACKEN. WINDS DIMINISHING TO AOB 12KTS...SEAS AOB 4FT BY SAT AFTN. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE SW ATLC/GOMEX REGION...WINDS AOB 10KTS...SEAS AOB 2FT. && .FIRE WX...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE FL PENINSULA BY DAYBREAK FRI...ALLOWING A COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING SFC DEWPOINTS MAY FALL AS LOW AS THE L/M30S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA... ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. MIN RH VALUES BLO 35% ARE EXPECTED... THOUGH THE COOL AIR MAY OFFSET ANY LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICAL RH. FOR NOW...WILL POST A FIRE WX WATCH ON FRI FROM INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY TO OSCEOLA COUNTY...INCLUDING ALL OF LAKE COUNTY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 45 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 73 48 65 44 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 74 48 66 46 / 10 0 0 0 VRB 75 49 67 46 / 20 0 0 0 LEE 72 44 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 73 45 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 73 47 65 45 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 75 50 66 46 / 20 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO LONG TERM....BRAGAW
