000
FXUS62 KMLB 260935
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
435 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009


.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE INITIAL COLD FRONT REACHING ACROSS S FL EARLY
THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHRA/SPRINKLES
EXTEND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS EC FL. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED AS THANKSGIVING DAY WEARS ON...WITH MORNING CLOUDINESS AND
A FEW AREAS OF LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS ROUGHLY SOUTHERN HALF
OF EC FL EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FROM N-S DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF H85 TROF. A SURGE OF NWLY WINDS AND
STRONGER CAA BY THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...RANGING FROM LOWER 40S NORTHERN INTERIOR
TO MID/UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EC FL...XCP A FEW NR
50/LOW 50S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY REACHING
LOWER 70S NORTH/MID 70S SOUTH.

FRI/SAT...THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH
WILL SWEEP THRU THE FL PENINSULA BY DAYBREAK FRI.  A STRONG
POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WX FACTOR FOR
THE FL PENINSULA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...GENERATING A DEEP NWRLY
FLOW STATEWIDE.  THESE WINDS WILL USHER A COLD/DRY AIR MASS INTO THE
STATE...SENDING MAX/MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEG BLO CLIMO.

MIN TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REMAIN ABV THE 50F DEG MARK ALONG THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...AND WILL FALL AS LOW AS THE U30S/L40S N
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.  DESPITE FULL SUN...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE ON FRI...ABOUT 10-15F BLO CLIMO.  AFTN TEMPS
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON SAT AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...BUT EVEN
SO ONLY THE TREASURE COAST IS EXPECTED TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE 70F MARK.

SUN/MON...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OFF THE SE COAST BY
DAYBREAK SUN...ALLOWING THE PREVAILING H100-H85 FLOW TO QUICKLY VEER
TO THE E/SE BY SUN AFTN.  AFTER A COLD START SUN MORNING...TEMPS
WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR CLIMO BY SUN AFTN.  STRENGTH OF THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT WARM AIR ADVECTION INITIALLY...KEEPING MIN
TEMPS SUN NIGHT SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO BUT STILL A GOOD 5-10F WARMER
THAN SAT NIGHT.  FULL TEMP RECOVERY ON MON AS WINDS VEER TO THE SW
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

TUE/WED...MEDIUM RANGE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO GENERATE THE
NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FROM A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE NE PAC.
HOWEVER...BOTH INDICATE THE MAIN STORM CENTER WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM...WHILE AN H85-H50 RIDGE SETS
UP OVER THE NW CARIB.  WITHOUT THE SUPPORT OF THE LOW...THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING THRU THE
STATE UNTIL A SECONDARY LOW CAN FORM IN THE GOMEX ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CRANK IT THRU THE PENINSULA.  NEITHER MODEL INDICATES
THIS HAPPENING WITHIN THE CURRENT FCST RANGE.

WILL CAP POPS AT 40% FOR NOW AS THE SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS STILL NEEDS
TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE PAC NW.  NEVERTHELESS...RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IS SUGGESTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE STATE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PRECIP EVENT.
MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS MVFR TO LCL IFR/LIFR WITH MORE PROBLEMS DUE TO LOW
CIGS VERSUS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. MOST AREAS BECOMING PREVAILING
VFR BY 14-15Z WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO BKN035-045...EVENTUALLY
SCATTERING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM N-S.

&&

.MARINE...NWLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN BY THIS EVENING
WITH A SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS NEAR SHORE MAY
ALSO REQUIRE CAUTIONARY HEADLINES AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE NEED TO EXPAND SCA.

FRI-MON...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS FRI AS A MODERATE TO FRESH NW
BREEZE PREVAILS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT...CHOPPY SEAS 3-5FT
NEARSHORE...6-8FT OFFSHORE.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON SAT AS THE
POST FRONTAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...ALLOWING THE
PGRAD TO SLACKEN.  WINDS DIMINISHING TO AOB 12KTS...SEAS AOB 4FT BY
SAT AFTN.  GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE SW ATLC/GOMEX REGION...WINDS AOB
10KTS...SEAS AOB 2FT.

&&

.FIRE WX...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU THE FL PENINSULA BY
DAYBREAK FRI...ALLOWING A COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO PREVAIL
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.  SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING SFC
DEWPOINTS MAY FALL AS LOW AS THE L/M30S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.  MIN RH VALUES BLO 35%
ARE EXPECTED... THOUGH THE COOL AIR MAY OFFSET ANY LONG DURATIONS OF
CRITICAL RH. FOR NOW...WILL POST A FIRE WX WATCH ON FRI FROM
INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY TO OSCEOLA COUNTY...INCLUDING ALL OF LAKE
COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  45  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  73  48  65  44 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  74  48  66  46 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  75  49  67  46 /  20   0   0   0
LEE  72  44  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  73  45  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  73  47  65  45 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  75  50  66  46 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN
     LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GLITTO
LONG TERM....BRAGAW