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458
FXUS62 KMLB 220157
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
856 EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND ACCOMPANYING
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO DRIVE A FAIRLY GOOD AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR AREAS NORTH OF A KISSIMMEE TO
TITUSVILLE LINE. RADARS SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE GULF COAST.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE BOUNDARY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN IN ITS VICINITY AND ACROSS
THE I-4 CORRIDOR INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL INITIALLY ENCOUNTER THE LINGERING DRY AIR ABOVE 600MB (AS SHOWN
ON THE 00Z TBW SOUNDING) WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH ACTIVITY GETS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. BUT WITH TIME WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED...IF NOT SCATTERED...SHOWERS MAKING IT ACROSS TO AFFECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

HUMID OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN.

MON...THE WARM FRONT AND UPR FORCING IN THE FORM OF LARGE JET
FEATURE OVER THE SE STATES WL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
DAY. CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSETTLED CONDS PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON WL LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL CO`S MOST CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH
LIFTING BOUNDARY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA WITH ISOLD TS WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY
NORTH OF KISM-KTTS THROUGH 22/14Z BEFORE ACTIVITY SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH. PREVAILING VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
SOME IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING IN FOG AND STRATUS 22/08-13Z
IN AREAS WHERE RAIN TAPERS OFF EARLY.

FURTHER SOUTH...PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 22/05Z. ISOLD SHRA BECOMING
WDLY SCT THROUGH 22/15Z AS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS PENINSULA FROM WEST
TO EAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH TOMORROW AFTN AS
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10-15KTS ON SOUTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. WINDS EAST-NORTHEAST 5-10KTS ON NORTH SIDE
OF BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH
WINDS 10-15KTS OVER ALL THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. SEAS
2-3FT ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY AND CHOPPY WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS COMING UP AT 4-6SEC AT LOCAL BUOYS. A FEW TS MOVING
OFFSHORE MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPE WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
GULF STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/SHARP







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