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287
FXUS62 KMLB 291348
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
948 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOME LARGE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA SUGGEST THE PENINSULA WILL
HAVE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTRAL FLORIDA MORNING SOUNDINGS INDEED SHOW HIGHER MOISTURE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN THE LAST TWO DAYS.  500 MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM...
MINUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS BUT 700 MB TEMPS AT 8 DEGREES ARE NOT AS
WARM AS FORECAST BY THE GFS.  EARLY MORNING SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...SO WHERE IT HEATS UP INTO THE LOWER 90S...THERE WILL
BE DECENT INSTABILITY. NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY KEEP A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA FROM GETTING DEBRIS CLOUDS SO THE CURRENT POPS AT
50 PERCENT LOOK GOOD.

SOUNDINGS SHOW STORM MOTION TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE THERE WAS SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR.  SO
EXPECT THAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.

EXPECT THE BULK OF CONVECTION TO HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE BY EVENING BUT
WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH CLOSE BY TO THE NORTH...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS GOING UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ALREADY SOME SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR KLEE...SO THE CHANCE
FOR STORMS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL BE STARTING EARLIER THAN
NORMAL...LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT MANY OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE MOIST
AIR MASS...BUT DURATION LOOKS SHORT DUE TO DECENT STORM MOTION...
EAST SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO OCCUR.  SOME OF
THESE GUSTS COULD SWEEP OUT WELL AHEAD OF CONVECTION AND LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS HAVE HAD MODERATE LIGHTNING AMOUNTS SO WE
SHOULD EXPECT SIMILAR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP
A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
BEEN AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.  SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS OFFSHORE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A CHOPPY RIDE BACK
TO THE COAST. ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHEN RETURNING TO SAFE HARBOR AHEAD
OF STORMS MOVING OFF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK






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