802
FXUS62 KMLB 220733
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...LIGHT SE-SSE FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ON WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
ATLC RIDGE. H50-H30 LOW IS ALONG THE ECFL COAST ATTM AND APPEARS TO
BE STARTING TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS ENE INTO THE ATLC. BASED ON METARS
AND FROM WHAT CAN BE DISCERNED FROM GOES-W IMAGERY...SKIES ARE MCLR
OVHD. A FEW OBS ARE STARTING TO REPORT SOME LIGHT MIST OVER THE LAST
HOUR.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
FOR ECFL AS DEEP MOISTURE (MEAN PWAT ~1.7") COUPLED WITH PROXIMITY
OF THE SLOW MOVING MID-UPR LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
TO READILY DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MAV POPS CAME IN JUST A BIT HIGHER (~60) AND SEE NO REASON
TO DEPART FROM THOSE NUMBERS.  MAX TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO M80S ALONG
THE COAST AND U80S INLAND. LINGERING EARLY EVENING SHOWER/FEW TS
SHOULD DISSIPATE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET AS MID/UPPER LOW WILL
OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NEW AWAY FROM FL.
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF SHALLOW LATE
NIGHT MIST OR FOG. MINS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 70F.

THU-FRI...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE ITS MERGE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH
THAT WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE EASTWARDS MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT LEADING TO DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS ON THURSDAY...BUT LEAVING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS STORMS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.

AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN ON FRIDAY AS THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY
THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

SAT-TUE...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. STOUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL (OR NONEXISTENT) THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS REACHING THE COAST
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID-UPPER 80S INLAND...BUT LEAD TO
WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND
MID-UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...MAY NEED TO AMD AND THROW IN SOME MVFR MIST FOR SEVERAL
OF THE TAF SITES 09Z-12Z. OTRW...INTRODUCED 2HR OF TEMPO TS ALONG
THE COAST IN THE 16-19Z TIME FRAME...AND 2-3HR INLAND 18-21Z...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INVOF LCL AERODROMES FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE MORE HRS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT CIRCULATION ON WRN SIDE OF ATLC RIDGE TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE/S BREEZE <15KT. SEAS IN THE 3-4FT
RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.

THU-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARDS ON THURSDAY
BY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 5 KTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND 10KTS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST WINDS BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST
AND INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS 2-4FT.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AROUND 20KTS WILL START
OUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
SUNDAY WITH EAST WINDS 15-20KTS. WIND SURGE WILL BRING SEAS TO
AROUND 6FT OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED STARTING SAT MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  69  88  69 /  60  30  30  20
MCO  89  70  90  68 /  60  30  20  10
MLB  85  71  87  69 /  60  30  30  20
VRB  85  70  88  69 /  60  30  30  20
LEE  88  70  91  71 /  60  30  20  10
SFB  89  70  92  71 /  60  30  30  10
ORL  88  71  91  72 /  60  30  20  10
FPR  85  70  88  69 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....MOSES
AVIATION...CRISTALDI