199
FXUS62 KMLB 040335 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1035 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...FREEZE WARNING FOR LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES...
...NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN RURAL SHELTERED AREAS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO WINDS/TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AS LOW LEVEL FLOW (SFC-850MB) VEERS TO THE NW REDUCING THE
EFFECTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WATCHING TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S NOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS WINDS
DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH. FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LOW TO MID 30S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPS
REMAIN ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES SO FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES
THERE. THIS WILL NOT BE A PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION AS
THE SFC HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT KEEPING AT
LEAST A LIGHT N/NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. NONETHELESS...EXPECT
ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF EC FL ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
AREAS.  IN ADDITION...FROST WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA AS
WELL AS TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ARE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE FROST GIVEN
ENOUGH MOISTURE.

MONDAY...A MORE PLEASANT DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD
WITH DECREASING WINDS AND MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
(LOWER 60S VOLUSIA/BREVARD COASTS) UNDER FULL SUN. THIS WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR...SKC THROUGH 00Z TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
(PREVIOUS) STABILITY FACTORS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER NOCTURNAL BUMP
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE OVERNIGHT. BUOY 41009 HOLDING FIRM WITH SEAS
AROUND 5FT...SO CONTINUED SCA WITH 5-7FT SEAS BEYOND 20NM THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING SEEMS REASONABLE. CAUTIONARY STATEMENT CONTINUES OUT
TO 20NM. DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON TAP FROM LATE MON MORNING
ONWARD...SO WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO RUN WITHOUT ANY HEADLINES BY MID
DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN EXTREMELY DRY DAY WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR AS HIGH PRES CENTER SETTLES OVERHEAD.
MIN RH VALUES FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY RFW (WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BREVARD). STILL...FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ENHANCED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  33  62  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  35  67  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  34  63  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  33  65  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  34  65  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  35  66  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  36  67  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  34  65  42  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WIMMER