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314
FXUS62 KMLB 310859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
359 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST TODAY...VEERING ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
MODIFY THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIMIT ANY POST FRONTAL COOLING.
HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
FARTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE MOVING MARINE STRATOCU WILL VARY SKY COVER TODAY FROM MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK TOO SHALLOW
FOR ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE E/NE FLOW AND MOS
POPS REMAIN QUITE LOW ALONG THE COAST (AROUND 5% OR LESS) SO WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH
MODELS SHOWING 925MB FLOW REMAINING AROUND 15-20 KTS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP ONSHORE SFC WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FORECAST. FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST/SOUTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA...IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHERLY AT NIGHT...WHICH WILL CAUSE
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SUN NIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON SUNDAY WITH
SHALLOW MOISTENING COMING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT A FEW CLOUD
LINES OVER THE WATER...BUT VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES SHOULD
KEEP SUBSTANTIVE SHOWERS OFFSHORE. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS DURING
THE DAY. PRE FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND EXPECT A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.

MON-TUE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN U.S.
AND OFFSHORE MON. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH...SO MOS POPS FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER
NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS AND AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH LOOK GOOD.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S
IN THE FAR SOUTH.

DRIER/COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN BE SHORT LIVED AS
WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO ONSHORE TUE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
SOUTH CLOSE TO NORMAL...LOWER/MID 50S TUE MORNING AND LOWER 70S
TUE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE NORTH THOUGH WITH BELOW
NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

WED-NEXT SAT...THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO THEIR HANDLING OF CUT OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
THAT WILL EJECT EASTWARD ON WED-THU. THIS SYSTEM WILL DAMPEN OUT
AS IT ENTERS A MORE CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW REGIME...BUT EXPECT
ENOUGH TROUGHING TO GENERATE SOME SORT OF GULF LOW THAT WILL MOVE
TOWARDS THE STATE. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW MORE OF A CHANCE FOR
THIS ON THU. SO AFTER A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED IN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES...
AROUND 40 PERCENT WED NIGHT AND THU.

THE 00Z GFS IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRI...BUT EVEN THE ECMWF INDICATES
LINGERING MOISTURE INTO FRI. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT COASTAL SHOWER
CHANCES FRI-SAT.

AFTER MILD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WED-THU...READINGS WILL DROP
OFF TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED. N/NE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
E/NE INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON INCREASING UP TO 10-15 KTS
AND GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST. ONSHORE MOVING MARINE STRATOCU
WILL PRODUCE SCT-BKN SKY COVER AROUND 4KFT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
TODAY WITH NE WINDS 15-20 KNOTS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 7
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS WINDS VEER MORE
EASTERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT.

SUN...SURFACE HIGH PUSHING SEAWARD WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AT LEAST 15 KNOTS AND MAY
INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN WATERS TO 20 KNOTS LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT LOOK POOR.

MON-WED...A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS MON WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW TURNING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY MON AND MON NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUE AND
SWING WINDS AROUND TO NORTHEAST...THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST WED...GENERALLY
AT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ONSHORE WINDS INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL MITIGATE ANY
LOW RH CONCERNS. INCREASING MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
LEAD TO EVENTUAL RAIN CHANCES WITH NEXT APPROACHING FRONT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  49  75  62 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  69  50  76  62 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  69  55  73  62 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  69  58  74  62 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  68  50  76  63 /   0   0   0  20
SFB  68  50  74  61 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  68  51  75  63 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  69  57  75  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....LASCODY





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