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[Printable]
934
AGPN40 KWNM 250205
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
705 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

LATEST SFC OBS OFF NRN CALIF SHOWING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE...AS IS LATEST ASCAT PASS FROM 1745Z. DID HAVE A BUOY NR PT
ST GEORGE RPT GUSTS TO 37 KT AT 00Z. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE PSBLTY OF AT LEAST GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN CURRENT GALE
AREA TONIGHT. WILL KEEP GALES IN THE FCST FOR NOW...BUT HIGHEST
CHANCES OF GALES SHUD BE CONFINED TO THE ADJACENT CSTL WATERS.

OTW...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST ANTICIPATED IN THIS PACKAGE.

SEAS...ENP VERSION OF WWIII A LITTLE UNDERDONE IN THE GALE AREA
OFF NRN CALIF...AS LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWING SEAS TO 11
FT. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCR SEAS BY 5 TO 10 PERCENT OFF NRN CALIF
TONIGHT. OTW...NO CHANGES.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COASTAL TROF WL INTENSIFY ALG NRN CA TNGT AND THEN PERSIST INTO
TUE NGT. HIGH PRES RDG XTNDS EWD OVR THE OR/NRN AND CNTRL CA AND
MDL GUID IS SMLR WITH HIGH PRES AREA WEAKENING LATER TNGT AND SAT.
BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET LOOK SMLR WITH PRES GRAD STRENGTHENING TNGT
INTO EARLY FRI. WL HAV GALES OVR THE ERN AREAS OF THE NRN CA WTRS
TNGT WHILE RDG IS STG AND THEN DMNSH TO 30 KT LATER TNGT. OTW IN
ADJACENT AREAS WL HAV WINDS TO 30 KT IN AREAS OF STGST PRES GRAD
TNGT INTO FRI. THE WX PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THRU TUE NGT
WITH THE HIGH PRES RDG CNTRD W OF THE WTRS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD
THRU MON AND TUE. WL CONT USE 30M GFS FOR WIND FIELDS THRU THE
FCST PD.

SEAS...COMPARISON OF WWIII AND ECMWF WV GUID SHOWS GOOD AGRMT
WITH OBS CLOSE TO GUID. BOTH MDLS LOOK SMLR THRU THE FCST PD WITH
MINOR DIFFS. WL BLEND 50/50 THE WWIII WITH ECMWF THRU TUE NGT.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN/ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.




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