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630
AGPN40 KWNM 250930
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
230 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE SAT IMG SHOW MOST OF THE CONV OVR THE NW PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL REGIONS BUT MOST OF THE LGHTNG IS W OF THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRNT. THE RADAR HAS NO INDC OF TSTSTMS CELLS OVR MOST OF THE
REGION XCPT OVR THE FAR ERN PARTS OF THE WTRS ADJ TO WASH. AT 06Z
LOW PRES 986 MB WITH STORM FORCE WINDS CNTRED OVR THE ERN EDGE OF
THE CNTRL REGION AND HAS ITS WARM FRNT STRETCHNG ACRS THE OREG
WTRS WHILE ITS ASSOCTD CLD FRNT STRETCHES S ACRS THE WRN PARTS OF
THE NRN CAL WTRS. THE PRES GRDNT IS FAIRLY TIGHT OVR THE CNTRL AND
NRN WTRS. THE OBS MAX WINDS ARE IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE OVR THE
CNTRL REGIONS. THE LATST ASCAT PASS AT 0553Z HAD STORM FORCE WINDS
W OF THE NRN REGION WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVR THE CNTRL AND NRN
REGIONS.

CURR ENERGY OVR THE REGION WILL BE LIFTED NE AND UPPRLEVEL
RIDGING WILL SET IN BUT THAT WILL BE BRIEF AND NOT THAT STRONG.
SOME ENERGY FROM THE CNTRL PAC WILL QUICKLY SET IN AND THAT WILL
RE ENFORCE THE REMNANT ENERGY TO MAINTAIN A TGHT PRES GRDNT OVR
THE CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THERFORE GALES SHOULD BE IN THE XTNDD PRD
TOO. WILL GO WITH ANY MDL THAT WILL SUPPORT MAINTAINING GALES OVR
THE REGION IN THE XTDD PRD.

THE GLB MDLS HV INITIALIZED WELL AND THEY CONTNE TO SHOW GUD
AGRMNT ESPCLLY IN THE SHORT TERM. A CLSER LOOK AT THE MNR DIFFS
MDLS HAVE IN THE XTNDD PRD SHOW THAT UKMETHR AND GFS ARE THE 2
MDLS THAT DELAY DISPTNG A SECONDRY LOW PRES BEHIND THE MAIN LOW
PRES THAT WIL BE IN THE GULF OF AK MON. BY WED UKMETHR AND ECMWFHR
DVLP ANOTHER LOW IN THE GULF OF AK. ALL THE MDLS SHOW ELEVATED
WINDS OVR THE REGION BUT JUST MNR DIFFS IN THE TIMING. SINCE ALL
THE MDLS HV JKUST MNR DIFFS AM INCLINED TO JUST CONTINUE WITH GFS
LIKE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IN THE SHORT TERM THE LOW PRES W
OF THE REGION WILL PASS ACRS THE CNTRL REGION INTO THE NRN WTRS
THEN MOVE INLAND. ASCTD WITH THE LOW PRES WILL BE THE WRM FRNT
THAT WILL LIFT N AS THE CLD FRNT MOVES ACRS THE CNTRL AND SRN
WTRS. THE PRES GRDNT WILL BE QUITE TIGHT AS THE FRNTL SYS MOVES
ACRS THE WTRS AND THET WILL KEEP ELEVATED WINDS INTO THE XTNDD
PRD.

.SEAS...THE SEAS ARE HGHST WITH 17 FT PEAKS OVR THE AREAS WITH
HGHR WINDS. THE LAST JASON PASS AT 0515Z HAD 12 FT SEAS OVR THE SW
WTRS AND MISSED THE REST OF THE CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THE NWW3 MULTI
GRID STILL FITS WELL WITH THE OBS AND HAS BEEN QUITE CLOSE TO THE
ECMWFWAVE SO WILL STAY WITH IT.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ETSS SUGGEST POS SURGE TO
2/10 TH FEET OVR THE OREG AND WASH COASTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO TUE.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     STORM TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     STORM TODAY.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     STORM EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     STORM EARLY TODAY.
     GALE TODAY.
.PZZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.

$$

.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.




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