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[Printable]
976
AGPN40 KWNM 262118
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
118 PM PST WED NOV 26 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

18Z OPC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS W/A COLD FRONT LOCATED OUT TO THE W.

12Z GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 4 SO FAVORED 12Z
GFS WINDS THROUGH THEN. BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THE ONGOING FORECAST
IS THE INTRODUCTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES FRI NIGHT IN THE
FAR NW PZ5 WATERS AS A LOW N/NE OF THE WATERS SLIDES SE. THOUGH
THE 12Z GFS 10M WINDS MAXED OUT AT 30 KTS...THE 12Z
CMC/NOGAPS/UKMET HAD GALE WINDS W/THE 12Z ECMWF AT 30 KT. GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY SEEN IN THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GUIDANCE IN
RELATION TO THIS SCENARIO FELT IT WAS REASONABLE TO ADD IN THE
GALES. USED 30M 12Z GFS WINDS FOR THE FRI NIGHT PERIOD TO ACHIEVE
THE WANTED RESULT. STILL SOME DIVERGENCE AMONG THE MODELS LATE SUN
INTO MON IN TERMS OF THE MOVEMENT OF LOW PRES THAT WILL DEVELOP W
OF THE AREA. 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET LATE SUN
INTO MON TAKING THE SYSTEM JUST W OF THE PZ6 WATERS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. W/THIS UNCERTAINTY CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF RESULTING IN A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW E TOWARDS THE
PZ6 WATERS BY PERIODS END.

.SEAS...USED 12Z NWW3 WERE 12Z GFS WINDS WERE FAVORED AND BLEND OF
NWW3 AND 12Z ECMWF WAVE MODEL WERE GFS/ECMWF WINDS WERE BLENDED.
DID INCREASE NWW3 WAVE HEIGHTS A BIT AND EXPANDED COVERAGE OVER
THE NRN PZ5 WATERS FRI NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR USE OF 30M GFS WINDS
TO ACHIEVE GALES.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.




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