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028
AGXX40 KNHC 190759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TROUGH.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA SW TO NEAR
24N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF...AND ELSEWHERE N OF 23N BETWEEN 87W
AND 94W. LATEST OFFSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PLATFORMS ARE
REPORTING E-SE 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
GULF...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR NE
PORTION...AND S-SW TO VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR SE
PORTION INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT...
IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1 FT OR LESS SEAS IN
THE FAR NE PORTION.

THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ONES.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOME MORE ACROSS THE SE GULF THIS MORNING
BEFORE STALLING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK N TO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRES FORMS TO THE E OF
FLORIDA. MOISTURE PROGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN THERE INTO MON BEFORE DRYING OUT WITH THE
INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE N. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH ELY WINDS N OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SAT EVENING AS THE
GRADEINT TIGHTENS WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE
SE CONUS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WEAK RIDGING N OF AREA CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ONLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 81W. SEAS W OF
81W ARE LOWER...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE PER LATEST AVAILABLE ALTIMETER
DATA AND BUOY REPORTS. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE-E TRADES AT 10-20 KT WILL
PREVAIL IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER
AT NIGHT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
5-6 FT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...4-6 FT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE WITH THE LOWEST OF THIS RANGE
CONFINED TO THE NW PORTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS IT
SIGNATURE AT THE SURFACE BECOMES RATHER SUBTLE. THE WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA
ALONG 46W/47W S OF 19N WITH WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE AT
15N46W WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY
ON SAT...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE TO E TRADES OF 10-15 KT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...EXCEPT GFS/ECMWF
BLEND NW PORTION THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE NW PORTION THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR
30N W OF 78W. A RIDGE EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 26N E OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST BUOY...SHIP AND ASCAT DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS S
OF THE RIDGE...AND S-SW GENTLE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE RIDGE.
GENTLE S-SW WINDS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE
REPORTING SEAS OF 3-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH...AND ALSO ELSEWHERE N OF 25N W OF 73W. THE TROUGH WILL
STALL FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT BACK TO
THE NW FRI NIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER THE SE U.S. AND SWING SEWD
ACROSS THE NW PORTION SAT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD HELP SPIN UP A LOW
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SAT TO THE E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
THE NW BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN FORWARD MOTION
TIMINIG OF THE LOW...AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE UKMET BUT
SIMILAR TO THE NAVGEM MODEL GUIDANCE IN TAKING THE LOW NEWD TO N
OF THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF AT THAT TIME HAS THE LOW
FARTHER S NEAR 29N78W. FOR THE NDFD GRIDS...WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR THE THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA
WHERE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20 KT E OF THE LOW DURING SAT AND INTO SAT NIGHT AS
ATLC RIDGING TO ITS E BUILDS WSW WHILE STRENGTHENING SOME. THESE
WINDS MAY BE HIGHER PENDING ACTUAL INTENSITY OF LOW AND STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE TO ITS E. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT
NEAR AND E OF THE LOW. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS N OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT...A TRAILING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NEAR 31N73W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED WITH 5-15 KT RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED...EXCEPT
2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




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