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611
AGXX40 KNHC 160705
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
305 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TUE VERIFIED STORM
FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.6N 96.0W. CURRENT
OBS SHOW WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION...IN LINE
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT SEAS TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS
MORNING AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO LIGHTER WINDS. COLD FRONT FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
THROUGH TONIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT THU.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AFTER THU HOWEVER. GFS DEVELOPS WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRES W OF TAMPA BAY WHICH MOVES NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO SW N
ATLC THROUGH EARLY SAT. ECMWF SOLUTION HAS MUCH STRONGER LOW
DEVELOPMENT SE OF NEW ORLEANS FRI MORNING WHICH TRACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS NE GULF. KEY FEATURE WILL BE STRENGTH AND DEEPENING OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE U.S. THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING STRONGER PAST TWO MODEL RUNS...
SO USED A BLEND OF 18Z AND 00Z FOR GRIDS.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF AREA IS SHIFTING E AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA...RESULTING IN WEAKER PRES GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH VERY FAR
BEYOND YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE WED NIGHT
THEN LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT THU THROUGH FRI. WEAK TRADE WIND
REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ALL MODELS AGREE WITH CARRYING THE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT INITIALLY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT THIS MORNING AND
VEER NE THROUGH THU. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST LESSENS AFTERWARD AS
ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT FARTHER E AWAY FROM COAST AND CARRY A LOW
PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
OTHER MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH SCENARIO...BUT MUCH WEAKER.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




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