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598
AGXX40 KNHC 300641
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
241 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE GFS.
MWW3 AND TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THU. A NEW COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI. THE FASTER 00Z
GFS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE GEFS AND EC
ENS MEANS...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER. THE GFS SHOWS GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS AND MWW3/NWPS
WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS AND MWW3 USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING JUST N OF THE CARIBBEAN INVOF 22N.
THIS IS INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS
TO 25 KT WERE OBSERVED BY THE 0150Z ASCAT-A AND 0242Z ASCAT-B
PASSES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE CRYOSAT ALTIMETER
MEASURED SEAS TO 9 FT. THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND AND GRADUALLY SHIFT W THROUGH THU MORNING.
AFTERWARD...INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE SW N ATLC WEAKENS THE
RIDGE AND THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...SHIFTING THE
STRONGEST WINDS BACK S AND E OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE GFS
APPEARS REASONABLE WITH WINDS HERE AND WITH THE LARGER SCALE
FEATURES DRIVING THEM.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH THE GFS.
MWW3 AND TAFB-NWPS USED TO ADJUST WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS FROM LAST NIGHT WERE A BIT TOO FAST TO DISLODGE THE
LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND MOVE IT TO THE N...BUT THE CURRENT RUNS ARE
LIKELY BETTER FORECASTS AS THE BROAD TROUGH EXPECTED TO PICK UP
THE LOW IS NOW APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS LOW NEAR BERMUDA WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BROAD TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W
TODAY. THE BROAD TROUGH TO THE W IS CURRENTLY CARRYING ENERGY
EASTWARD FROM THE NE GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING E INTO
THE ATLC. IT IS EXPECTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY TROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS
IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE 18Z GEFS TO CARRY THIS LOW E-NE
THROUGH THE ATLC. THE 12Z ECMWF IS WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THE 00Z
GFS...BUT ITS MEAN SOLUTION IS FASTER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THE 12Z GFS FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE
SOLUTIONS WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW AND FRONT. THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS
THE PROBABILITY OF WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA BELOW 20
PERCENT UNTIL EARLY WED. THE OPERATIONAL RUN AGREES AND PLACES 30
KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW BY 12Z WED. THE GFS IS ON THE
DEEPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LIKELY HAS SOME GRID-SCALE
FEEDBACK ISSUES THAT ARE ENHANCING THE WIND. BLENDING THE GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE
GENERAL STRUCTURE OF THE PATTERN...WITH THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION
APPEARS REASONABLE. THIS SOLUTION REFRAINS FROM PICKING WINDS UP
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL 18Z WED...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z
GEFS MEAN. THE GFS AND NWPS/MWW3 WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




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