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378
AGNT40 KWNM 011150
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
750 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...A TROF WILL DRIFT E ACROSS THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS
TODAY INTO TUE...AS A HI PRES RDG PERSISTS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN
NT2 WTRS. A WEAK COLD FNT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NT1 AND NRN NT2
WTRS TUE NITE AND WED...CONT SE INTO THE CNTRL NT2 WTRS WED NITE
INTO THU...THEN STALL AND DSIPT ACROSS THE SRN NT2 WTRS THU NITE
INTO FRI. ANOTHER RDG WILL BLD OVER THE OFSHR WTRS N OF THE FNT
THU...THEN SHIFT SE ACROSS THE OFSHR ZONES THU NITE INTO FRI
NITE. ANOTHER COLD FNT WILL MOVE E AND APRCH THE NEW ENG AND NEW
JERSEY CSTS FRI NITE.

MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD AGREEMNT DURING THE FCST
PRD...EXCEPT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS WITH THE COLD FNT FOR THE
LATER FRI AND FRI NITE TIMEFRAME. GEM/UKMET ARE FASTEST WITH THE
COLD FNT...WHILE ECMWF IS SLOWEST WITH THE FNT...AND GFS OFFERS A
MEDIAN SOLN WRT TO TIMING OF THE COLD FNT. GFS 10M LOOKS LIKE THE
MOST REPRESENTATIVE MDL SOLN FOR THE WIND GRIDS ATTM. AM NOT
PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.

.SEAS...THE MULTIGRID WW3 MDL INITIALZED WELL VERSUS THE BUOY OBS
EARLIER THIS MRNG...WITH THE MDL GUIDANCE WITHIN A FOOT OR SO OF
THE BUOYS. MWW3 AND ECMWF WAM ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT THRU THE
FCST PRD...DIFFERING BY ONLY A FOOT AT TIMES. WILL USE THE WNA
VERSION OF THE MWW3 FOR THE WAVE HT GRIDS...SINCE WILL BE USING
THE GFS THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PRD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.




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