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[Printable]
933
AGNT40 KWNM 201253
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
853 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

ATTM I DONT SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
GRIDS. PRV GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT FCST APPEAR ON TARKGET. WILL
STILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK FOR THE POSS OF GALES...ESPECIALLY IN NW FLOW ACROSS
GULFSTREAM...AND OVR GULF OF MAINE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...A HI PRES RIDGE WILL PASS E ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY INTO
EARLY TUE. LOW PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY CST LATE TUE...REMAIN
NEARLY STNRY ABOUT 90 NM SE OF LONG ISLAND TUE NITE THRU THU WHILE
DEEPENING...MOVE NE ACROSS THE NT1 AREA THU NITE AND FRI...THEN MOVE
OFF TO THE NE OVER NOVA SCOTIA FRI NITE WHILE CONTG TO DEEPEN. THE
LOW WILL PULL A COLD FNT E ACROSS THE NT2 WTRS TUE NITE THRU WED
NITE.

MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT DURING
THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT 00Z UKMET IS FASTER WITH THE LOW LATER FRI
AND FRI NITE WHILE 00Z NOGAPS IS SLOWER. 00Z GEM IS STGR THAN THE
OTHER MED RNG MDLS WITH THE LOW ON THU AND THU NITE. 00Z ECMWF/GFS
ARE IN BEST AGREEMNT...AND ALSO LOOK LIKE GUD MEDIAN MDL SOLNS.
WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS 30M FOR THE WIND
GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD.

SEAS...PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE MULTIGRID WW3 MDL INITIALIZED WITHIN
ABOUT A FOOT OF THE BUOY OBS. 00Z MULTIGRID WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAM
ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT...EXCEPT THERE ARE SOME RELATIVELY
MINOR DIFFS THAT DVLP AT TIMES DURING THE FCST PRD. WILL USE A
50/50 BLEND OF THE MWW3/ECMWF WAM FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS THRU THE
FCST PRD TO SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...FOR TUE NITE INTO WED NITE
ESTOFS HAS SURGE VALUES ALMOST DOUBLE THOSE OF THE ETSS FROM LONG
ISLAND SOUND TO THE SW MAINE CST. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS ESTOFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE SURGE HTS HERE AND NOW IS ABOUT 1.0 FOOT WHICH
IS SOMEWHAT UNDERDONE.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SHAW/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.




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