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404
AGNT40 KWNM 010736
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
336 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

NOTE: THE OFFNT1 AND OFFNT2 WILL BE ISSUED LATER THAN NORMAL
BECAUSE THE NHC OFCL FCST TRACK OF T.S. BERTHA CROSSES THE OFSHR
WTRS.

SUMMARY...SATPIX AND LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATE A STNRY FNT
EXTNDG NE TO SW ACROSS THE NT2 WTRS TONITE...WITH LIGHTNING
STRIKE PRODUCT SHOWING A LINE OF ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS JUST E
OF THE FNTL BNDRY...AND ALSO OVER THE FAR SRN NT2 ZONES. LATEST
ASCAT HI-RES PASSES AT 01Z AND 02Z SHOW ONLY LIGHT WINDS OVER ALL
OF THE OFSHR ZONES...SO THE STNRY FNT IS CONSIDERED TO BE A WEAK
FTR.

THE STNRY FNT WILL DRIFT W AND NW AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LATE TODAY
INTO SAT NITE...AS A HI PRES RDG BLDS W TOWARD THE OFSHR AREAS.
THE FNT SHD BECOME NRLY STNRY ALG THE COAST SUN NITE...THEN DSIPT
MON AS RDG BLDS W OVER THE OFSHR WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS EXPCTD TO MOVE N AND APPROACH THE SRN
NT2 WTRS MON NITE...THEN PASS NE ACROSS SE NT2 WATERS TUE AND TUE
NITE. A WEAK COLD FNT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS
TUE AND TUE NITE.

MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE
OFSHR WTRS INTO MON...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIF DIFFS OVER THE MON
NITE THRU TUE NITE TIMEFRAME CONCERNING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
BERTHA. THE LATEST 00Z NHC FCST TRACK FOR BERTHA MATCHES UP BEST
WITH THE OLD 12Z UKMET AND 00Z GEM. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE 00Z
MED RNG MDLS DO NOT SHOW GUD CONTINUITY WITH THEIR PREV RUN WRT TO
BERTHA. BASED ON THE 09Z PREAT3...THE NHC TRACK FCST IS GOING TO
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE 00Z GFS...SO I WILL BE FAVORING THE 00Z GFS FOR
THE WIND GRIDS THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PRD.

.SEAS...WILL BE USING THE WNA VERSION OF THE 00Z MULTIGRID WW3 FOR
THE SEA HT GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD...SINCE AM USING THE 00Z GFS
FOR THE WIND GRIDS AS NOTED ABOVE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.




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