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110
FXUS62 KMFL 231330
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT BETWEEN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PW OF 1.87
IN. WINDS IN THE LOWER 2 KM ARE MAINLY EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO PUSH
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. THIS CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST
LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW OF THESE BANDS COULD STILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED URBAN
FLODDING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW 70S OVER MIAMI-
DADE AND THE MID 60S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES ARE WEAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR (AROUND -5.5C/KM).
SIMILARLY, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -5 TO -6C. THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER SOME
DRYING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AROUND 700 MB WITH A LARGE DRYING
OCCURRING AROUND 500 MB BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  72  81  69 /  50  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  75  82  73 /  80  60  60  30
MIAMI            82  73  82  71 /  90  70  70  30
NAPLES           84  69  82  66 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR/THU WX BRIEFING...10/CD




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