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[Printable]
984
FXUS62 KMFL 242109
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...ONE MORE WARM DAY BEFORE COLD FRONT COOLS OFF AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MAKING FOR A VERY WARM AND
HUMID DAY. TEMPERATURES (AND ESPECIALLY DEWPOINTS) ARE QUITE
SUMMER-LIKE ACROSS THE AREA, AND AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN SET (MIAMI AT 88F). ANOTHER SULTRY NIGHT IS
IN STORE FOR TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES VERY SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS
THE GULF. A BATCH OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERING THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA FROM WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE
NORTH AND LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA-WIDE OVERNIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SURPRISINGLY AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING HIGH POPS TONIGHT,
BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND TYPICAL DIURNAL MINIMUM OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD RAIN. THEREFORE ONLY WENT
AROUND 30% RATHER THAN THE 50-60% POPS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WAS
PRODUCING. WE ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
AREAS, SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW
AREAS OF DENSE FOG, BUT BELIEVE MOST OF THIS WILL BE STRATUS/LIGHT
FOG DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEING A LITTLE TOO STRONG FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLS OVER THE NE GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
GULF. WE SHOULD SEE A RATHER SHARP MOISTURE BOUNDARY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH, WITH HIGHEST MOISTURE AND FAVORED DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY, WITH PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA CATCHING THE
LAKE AREA AND THE NAPLES REGION. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY ON TAP (PERHAPS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS). HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING
DYNAMICS, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF FLORIDA. THERE COULD
BE A WINDOW BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS,
ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE GULF COAST, IF THE PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CAN HOLD TOGETHER. BELIEVE THERE`S A
CHANCE THIS COULD OCCUR BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NAPLES AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY,
THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN
FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
THIS WEDNESDAY LOOKS A LOT LIKE LAST WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO FALL DURING THE DAY AS CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. FOR THIS REASON,
SHOWING A VERY SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NAPLES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THEIR
DAYTIME HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP CLEAR THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA IN TIME FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR
THANKSGIVING MORNING AS WELL AS FRIDAY MORNING, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
BOTH DAYS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS! WINDS BECOME NE
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND REMAINING MOSTLY DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
THEN A SHARP INCREASE IN NW-N WINDS AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AT LEAST 10 FEET
IN THE OUTER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WEDNESDAY, AND UP TO 8 FEET IN
THE ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE ROUGH SIDE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY,
WITH SEAS ONLY SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN COOLER/DRIER AIR
FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP. DRIEST
DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE THANKSGIVING DAY WHEN MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY REACH THE 35 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  75  84  73 /  20  30  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  76  85  75 /  10  30  20  20
MIAMI            86  76  85  74 /  10  30  20  30
NAPLES           84  73  84  67 /  20  30  50  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....57/GREGORIA




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