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[Printable]
540
FXUS62 KMFL 010729
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
329 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* SLIGHT TSTORM CHANCE EAST COAST, BETTER CHANCE GULF COAST TODAY
* STORMIER PATTERN MID-LATE WEEK; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ON THIS LABOR DAY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH
FLORIDA, MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW LOCALLY WITH CONVECTIVE
FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISALLOW A FULL GULF SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING, BUT SOME VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTEDTHERE
WHICH AGAIN WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE EAST COAST, HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH QUICK PASSING SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CANNOT RULE
OUT TSTORMS EAST COAST BUT CONVERGENCE WILL BE LACKING SO COVERAGE
WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

LIKE YESTERDAY, A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ACTIVE TSTORMS IS THE
LACK OF A FULL FLEDGED ONSHORE GULF SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG TSTORM OR TWO GIVEN SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
THE INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WED NIGHT-THU. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE, SPELLING A STORMIER PERIOD MID WEEK AND EVEN INTO LATE
WEEK AS HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAINS. POPS ACCORDINGLY SHOW AN
UPWARD TREND MID-LATE WEEK. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ANYWHERE
BEGINNING WED THROUGH LATE WEEK DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
TROUGH PASSAGE, THOUGH MORE CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
/GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP A EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AFTER 14Z TODAY BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS WORKS INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 14Z.
SO WILL PUT IN VCSH AFTER 14Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...A LATE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 21Z TODAY. SO WILL
PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

&&

.MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT WILL PREVAIL AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
WED- THU, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  79  90  77 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  90  80 /  30  20  50  20
MIAMI            90  80  89  78 /  30  20  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  76 /  60  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




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