582
FXUS62 KMFL 251220
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
820 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...
THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER AIR TRAILING IT TO THE NORTH. THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A LINE OF MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
AROUND BIMINI ISLAND TO KEY BISCAYNE. THE LATEST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE FEATURES AND GENERALLY
INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
FILL IN BEHIND IT. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND OUT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN INLAND AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS (ALL MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FT LAUDERDALE TO NAPLES). AT THE EAST COAST
BEACHES...EXPECT STRENGTHENING RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
ONSHORE WINDS AND SURF BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON THE MORNING OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

AVIATION...
SCT-BKN060-080 WILL AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND FEW-SCT020-030 WILL BE AROUND MAINLY
AROUND KMIA AND SOUTH. THEN, DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
WINDS SWITCH FROM LIGHT NW TO NE AND REALLY INCREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...NE15G20-25KT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN A POSSIBLE TSTORM ALONG THE GULF COAST. INCLUDED VCSH AT KAPF
FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING MARTIN COUNTY AND MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES SOUTHWARD IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FORECAST
TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. FOR THE AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ARE FORECAST TO LIMIT CHANCES OF CONVECTION BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AT THAT TIME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE REGION WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH MAINLY STABLE WEATHER EXPECTED.

OVER THE WEEKEND THERE WILL A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS ON SUNDAY FORECAST TO
BE IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE EAST COAST SUBURBS TO MID 80S INLAND AND THE
NAPLES METRO AREAS UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
REBOUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATER TODAY AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE REGION FROM THE CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS
AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT DEEPER LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND A DEEPENING OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD OCCUR
AROUND MID- WEEK NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF
FUTURE GUIDANCE PERSISTS WITH THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS WINDS AND SEAS RESPOND TO THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. TODAY A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED BUT BY SUNDAY AS WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE A HIGH RISK IS EXPECTED AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THAT TREND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE INTO
MID-WEEK.

FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA GULF WATERS...WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
ARE FORECAST BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH OFF SHORE SEAS FORECAST TO BE 3 TO
4 FEET RANGE WITH THESE CONDITIONS FORECAST TO POSSIBLY CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A PRE-CAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND BISCAYNE BAY TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FOR THE GULF WATERS A PRE-CAUTIONARY STATEMENT WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AND
MAINLY INLAND COLLIER COUNTY TODAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  73  82  73 / 10 -  10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  75  84  76 / 20 -  10 20
MIAMI            87  74  83  74 / 20 -  10 20
NAPLES           93  68  90  67 / 30 -  10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD