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[Printable]
165
FXUS62 KMFL 220036
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
836 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...AFTER A VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO
AREA WITH EXCESSIVE RAINS AND FLOODING, ALL NOW IS QUIET ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THERE IS LITTLE ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS COULD RE-DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO KEPT THE FORECAST WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE
MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING REGISTERING A PWAT OF 2.07 INCHES. SO HEAVY
RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY./GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY HIGH OVERCAST AND SOME SHOWERS
LATE APPROACHING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS PERHAPS
FIRST IN THE MORNING. STORMS WED AFTERNOON CAN LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR. VCTS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED IN FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES
FOR WED PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NHC SHOWS THAT WHATEVER DEVELOPS
LIKELY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE CERTAIN THAN IT DID A FEW DAYS AGO.
HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE ACTIVE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. IT VERY WELL COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NOW LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA) SETS UP LATE
THIS WEEK AND HOW FAR NORTH DEEP CARIBBEAN MOISTURE PULLS.

MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT IN
THE LOCATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL. SOME RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE MOISTURE AXIS SETTING
UP ACROSS SOUTH FL, WHILE OTHER RUNS HAVE KEPT THE HIGH MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THESE INCONSISTENCIES, THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DECREASING THIS WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL
MATERIALIZE LOCALLY, THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME IS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT NEARBY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST.

MARINE..

WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS FORECASTED TO BE GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET.
THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY THE WINDS COULD INCREASE
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD LEAD SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDING
TO AROUND 7 FEET DURING THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME THE LOW SHOULD STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  84  71  82 /  40  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  83  75  82 /  40  40  40  50
MIAMI            72  84  74  82 /  40  50  50  50
NAPLES           71  84  70  85 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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