weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  51  52  53  
[Printable]
920
FXUS62 KMFL 241803
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
HEAVIER RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS CONTINUE TO PULL TO THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE
EAST COAST SITES. REMOVED SHRA MENTION FROM ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR
KTMB FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS
SHOW THE DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING SHRAS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD THEN TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR ARE RANGING FROM JUST UNDER ONE INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS BISCAYNE
BAY. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
TAKING THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN WITH IT. UPDATED
POP...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  82  69  82 /  20  10  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  82  71  83 /  40  10  10  10
MIAMI            71  82  69  83 /  50  10   0  10
NAPLES           66  82  65  82 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$




U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE