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241
FXUS62 KMFL 230043
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
743 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST IS
RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE FAST
MOVING AS THEY AFFECT THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. ADJUSTED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS AND CURRENTLY BELIEVE THIS SHOULD BE THE
TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE ONLY
SPRINKLES EXPECTED. POPS ARE LOW BUT CERTAINLY NON-ZERO THROUGH
TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAFS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE...BUT
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NAPLES...10-15Z LIKELY TO
BE MVFR...AND CANT RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN 10-15 KTS.
TOMORROW...ESE WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST...AND SPEEDS AGAIN INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER TEXAS. A WARM FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED
OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10 MPH OR LESS OVER THE LAND AREAS. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY AND INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DRIER
AIR TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM A CHANCE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ON
MONDAY...THE POPS WILL BE ONLY IN A SLIGHT CHANCE CAT OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN DRY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND BRING IN SOME MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CAT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE.

LONG TERM...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS
OVER THE AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

MARINE... THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE WINDS SWING
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO FALL FROM 7 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 7
FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC AND
BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SCA FOR THE GULF
SIDE WILL BE DROPPED. THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN AN
SCEC CONDITION FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  83  75  86 /  50  40  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  83  77  85 /  40  30  20  20
MIAMI            76  84  76  86 /  50  20  20  20
NAPLES           71  82  71  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK




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