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547
FXUS62 KMFL 250028 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
828 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEST COAST
METRO AREAS.

THE WILDFIRE IS STILL ONGOING OVER NORTHEAST PORTION OF INLAND
COLLIER COUNTY THIS EVENING. SO SMOKE WILL ALSO MIX WITH THE FOG
OVER EASTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY...SOUTHERN HENDRY
COUNTY...AND FAR WESTERN BROWARD COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MINIMAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED.

SO THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IS TO ADD FOG OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS...AND TO ADD SMOKE WORDING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE EAST
COAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLIDED IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES, WELL INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. AS WE CONTINUE TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING, WINDS WILL
GET LIGHTER AFTER SUNSET, AND DRAIN FROM THE INTERIOR TOWARD THE
COASTS AFTER 04Z. CLOUDINESS IS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES IN THE AREA TO OUR SOUTH. WE MAY GET A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT, BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A 500MB SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH A
LINGERING BOUNDARY THAT IS LAYING ACROSS THE WATERS, EAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS IT DOES, IT WILL SPARK OFF SOME MORNING SHOWERS. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THEM COULD PUSH ONSHORE AND BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS, FROM BROWARD COUNTY SOUTH.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 500MB
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER FLORIDA AND UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND A WARM AIR MASS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING.

WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS, MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
SOME INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MANY AREAS AROUND 90 BY SATURDAY. DEW
POINTS LOOK TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND COLLISIONS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THE FLOW WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING INTO
FLORIDA...AND THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA ALLOWING FOR LOCAL SEA/LAND BREEZES
TO BE THE MAIN WIND PRODUCING MECHANISM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OBS HAVE LIGHT SEA BREEZES ESTABLISHED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
MIA/TMB, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO SE AT MIA/TMB BY 20Z. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS THE SEA BREEZES
CONVERGE, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. BACK TO LAND
BREEZE BY ABOUT 03Z/04Z, WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS
MOISTURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH ADVANCES TOWARDS AREA. MAY GET A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR EAST COAST WITH THIS MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  85  70  85 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  85  72  85 /  10  20   0   0
MIAMI            71  86  72  86 /   0  20   0   0
NAPLES           65  83  68  82 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....13/SI




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