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235
FXUS62 KMFL 231802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS HAS RECENTLY SUBSIDED WITH
LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN. AT 18Z NO TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
SHORT TERM REGARDING CONVECTION POTENTIAL. REGIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
EASTERN GULF. GIVEN THIS AND FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS...VCTS
ASSIGNED ALL TERMINALS AT 20Z AND AGAIN AT 00Z WITH FURTHER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WITH OCCURRENCE OF
HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

UPDATE...

TRAIN OF SHTWVS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF, ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, PULLED INTO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
THE CAROLINAS. A COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA, AND THESE SHRTWVS IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF
HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG
PART OF THE EAST COAST. THE GULF WATERS SWATH SHOULD AFFECT
NAPLES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IF IT MAINTAINS INTENSITY COULD
LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS POSSIBLY THERE, SO STAY TUNED. AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL BROWARD WILL MOVE INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY
LATER THIS MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION AND
CLOUDS MAY AFFECT COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EAST COAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH KMIA AND KTMB ASSIGNED VCTS AT 12Z. ACTIVE CONVECTION
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY WHICH INCLUDES ACTIVITY
FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS. WITH HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED IN TAF`S
AND WILL HAVE TO AMEND AS NEEDED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS
THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS AND TERMINAL KAPF MAY HAVE TO BE AMENDED
WITH VCTS ADDED.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO EXTEND OVER THE
PENINSULA AS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER FEATURE. HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO CUT OFF
THIS MORNING AND THEN ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
DAY. AS A RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM, DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN
PLACE WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PWAT CLOSE TO TWO INCHES.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE SOUTHEAST
SIDE OF THE LOW ADDITIONALLY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DIFFERENCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER, TOTAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH SO NOT MUCH CHANGES TO RAIN PROBABILITIES ARE
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE TROUGH
AXIS, BUT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING TAKING PLACE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT
OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW WITH A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL RETURN SOUTH FLORIDA TO A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FOCUSING MORE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A RETURN
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST ONCE AGAIN.

MARINE...
AN EASTERLY FLOW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SEAS OF MOSTLY 2-3 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC AND 1-2 FEET IN THE
GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  86  77  86 /  40  60  30  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  86  78  87 /  40  70  40  70
MIAMI            77  86  78  87 /  40  60  30  70
NAPLES           74  87  75  87 /  30  50  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...60/BD




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