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[Printable]
622
FXUS62 KMFL 200812
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
412 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODEL AND MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE COARSE OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY AND REACH NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  73  84  72 /  10  10  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  76  84  75 /  20  20  40  30
MIAMI            85  75  84  75 /  20  20  50  30
NAPLES           86  73  82  72 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....60/BD




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