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[Printable]
240
FXUS62 KMFL 020116
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
916 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED LATER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. MUCH OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE RUNNING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE SOUTH, AND IS SITTING JUST TO THE NORTH OF JUPITER. SO,
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND ADDED SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEATHER THIS EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
AND PALM BEACH COAST. THE HRRR DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING ENHANCED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ATTM SO KEPT VCTS THROUGH 02Z FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS EXCEPT
KPBI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE SEEN JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST
SITES AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND
PUSHING INTO THE TERMINALS SO PREVAILED A GENERAL EASTERLY WIND AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES EXCEPT KTMB WHICH MAY BE JUST TOO FAR INLAND
TO SEE AN EASTERLY WIND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND INDICATES THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS. MODEL PWAT GRADIENTS REFLECT
THIS POTENTIAL AND INDICATE VALUES RANGING FROM 1.62" ALONG THE
GULF COAST UP TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST AREAS.

/AG

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AS NOW BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SENDING THE
FIRST COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND OFF OUR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SUPPORTING THIS
FROPA IDEA AS WELL...WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE MEMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE SULTRY HIGH DEWPOINTS
WE`VE FELT SINCE MAY...WELL INTO THE 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S ON A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S INTERIOR AND GULF COAST BOTH SAT AND
SUN NIGHT...AND LOWER 70S EAST COAST METRO WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY...LETTING US KNOW THAT IT IS INDEED FALL.

THIS IS PRETTY EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR A COLD FRONT, BUT THE PATTERN
OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOES NOT SEEM TO
WANT TO LET GO AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF EVEN
AFTER TEMPORARY FLOW CHANGES. GIVEN THIS, AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
ISN`T SHOCKING...AND IN FACT THE LONGER RANGE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AS WE ENTER MID OCTOBER. COULD THIS BE THE BEGINNING OF A
PARADE OF COLD FRONTS? TOO EARLY TO SAY, BUT I`M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
SO GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCKED SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

/GREGORIA

MARINE...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF
THE FALL SEASON IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH IN ITS
WAKE ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH, ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

/AG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  76  86 /  30  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  77  87 /  20  50  20  50
MIAMI            77  89  76  87 /  20  60  20  50
NAPLES           78  86  76  86 /  20  20   0  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG




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