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[Printable]
272
FXUS62 KMFL 231902
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
302 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT BY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. MOST
OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO STAY CONCENTRATED OVER MIAMI-DADE AND
PORTIONS OF BROWARD COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO THE FRONT, THIS WIND CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASING AND IT IS
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT THERE IS STILL A RELATIVELY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR.

HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH A LESSER RISK OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY INTO 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
SOUTH, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY, AND EXTENDING
INTO 00Z SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 200 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION (ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014)

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH. ISOLATED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHRAS BUT
MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LAMP
GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW AT ALL EAST
COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  70  82 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  81  73  82 /  50  30  30  10
MIAMI            74  81  71  82 /  50  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  83  66  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD




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