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502
FXUS62 KMFL 300021
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO...AND EXPECT THIS TREND OVERNIGHT. NO CHANCES TO ONGOING
FORECAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT...WITH A LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS MAY SHIFT
MORE TO THE NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY,
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THEY
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THE SAME TIME, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH.  COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT WASHES
OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LONG TERM...
AS THE DIMINISHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO
DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THEY COULD MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY AND THEN MOVES NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH OF THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, HOWEVER, THERE STILL COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN EASTERLY BELOW 15
KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  56  74  59  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  75  60  72 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            59  75  60  73 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           54  71  54  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....55/CWC




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