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577
FXUS62 KMFL 301341
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
941 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED DOWN TO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING,
WHERE IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME STATIONARY LATER TODAY. DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAS POOLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AS
REFLECTED BY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES IN MIAMI
SOUNDING AS WELL AS DATA FROM BLENDED TOTAL PW PRODUCT. HIGHER
MOISTURE, TYPICALLY-HIGH INSTABILITY AND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL
TROUGH POINT TO ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
CONSENSUS OF SHORT-RANGE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS IS FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA, WITH ADDITIONAL FOCUS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO EARLIER CONVECTION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, REDUCING THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT.
NEVERTHELESS, A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF FOCUSED CONVECTION. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WARRANT VCSH INCLUSION AROUND
14-15Z...WITH VCTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE
CONSIDERED...BUT FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ISN`T QUITE
SUFFICIENT. FOR NAPLES...SIMILAR CONCERNS WITH REGARD TO TEMPO
GROUPS...BUT VCSH IS ONGOING NOW DUE TO ACTIVITY IN THE GULF AND
EVERGLADES. OVERALL WIND FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE WILL TRANSITION WINDS AT
EASTERN TERMINALS TO SOUTHEAST. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
YESTERDAY HAS COME TO A HALT AND NOW LIES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCALA AREA WITH DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 60S WITH THE
SULTRY MID-UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS IS ONE IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT FOR JULY WITH ATLANTA
AT 63F THIS MORNING AND INTO THE 50S IN THE GREATER D.C. AREA WITH
DULLES AT A CHILLY 52F DEGREES CURRENTLY...IN THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER! IF YOU LIKE A COOLER CHANGE, NO LUCK THIS FAR SOUTH. HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO MAX OUT NEAR 100F EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT LIES NOW
ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.1
INCH RANGE. STREAMLINES SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST/WATERS AND THIS IS WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY BECOMING
NUMEROUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS IS LOOKING LIKELY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH POPS. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST...THOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LACK OF A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LOW.

THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SW TO S TO EVENTUALLY SE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND INTERIOR-
GULF COAST FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HIGH
POPS ARE REFLECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NHC CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND GIVES THIS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HR. THE 30.00Z RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REFLECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT GETS NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS ISN`T SET IN STONE AND WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE`S PROGRESS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE SW
BUT WILL BE BACKING TO SE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE THE
EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TO PERIODS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  76  91  77 /  70  40  60  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  70  50  60  30
MIAMI            92  79  90  79 /  70  40  60  40
NAPLES           89  80  90  79 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....23/SK




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