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049
FXUS62 KMFL 190655
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
255 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS CHARACTERIZED WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE MS VALLEY GRADUALLY BUILDING EASTWARD
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW STREAMING OVER THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF IT. A FEW
WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND GENERALLY INDICATES INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS AND GENERALLY INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER
H5 TEMPS AND DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EACH DAY. THE MID-LEVEL
CAP THAT WAS EVIDENT YESTERDAY FROM 650-700MB IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH TODAY. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONLY
ENHANCE THE DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS. SEA BREEZE AND MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE GULF AND ATLANTIC
BREEZES CONVERGE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS
LOW...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
MAIN IMPACTS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS (40-55
MPH). THE BEST CHANCE FOR EAST COAST/METRO SHOWERS WILL BE THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND SPREAD ASHORE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE MORE OF A
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW TODAY...SO CIRRUS BLOW-OFF SHOULDN`T IMPACT
THE EAST COAST TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF GENERALLY REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND INDICATE A PERSISTENT
UPPER TROUGH/LOW CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW
COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE
THIS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION FURTHER DEVELOPING AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTH OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY. DESPITE THE CONSISTENCY
FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...WE WILL REMAIN STEADY WITH
THE RAINFALL CHANCES SINCE THIS IS STILL BEYOND THE 72 HR TIME
FRAME. ANY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THIS SURFACE FEATURE LIFTS NORTH
COULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL EAST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHORT RANGE MODELS DEPICT A GULF BREEZE
DEVELOPING AROUND 17Z WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR BUT
COULD BUILD BACK WEST TOWARD KAPF. KEPT OUT ANY THUNDER MENTION FOR
NOW AND COVERED WITH VCSH. KEPT EAST COAST TERMINALS DRY ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
NORTHEAST OF THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AND WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES AND
POSSIBLY A PERIOD OR TWO WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  74  84  72 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  75  85  74 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI            85  75  85  74 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES           89  71  88  70 / 30 30 30 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD






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