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000 FXUS64 KMAF 241955 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 155 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009 .DISCUSSION... A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS NOW IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. WILL GO AT OR BELOW THE LOWEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND COULD STILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TEENS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK FRONT EARLY THURSDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE NOT HAD A PARTICULARLY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TROUGH WITH INCONSISTENCY IN BOTH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z GFS HAS GREATLY INCREASED THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH AND WEAKENED IT BEING THE FASTEST OF ALL MODELS. COMPARING THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS...THE VORT MAX WHICH ROUNDS THE CREST OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE BECAME WEAKER WITH THE LATEST RUN. THIS IN TURN BEGAN A RIPPLE EFFECT WHICH TURNED A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO AN OPEN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. IT APPEARS JUST SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THIS VORT MAX WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE MAJOR TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS SO DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN ANY ONE SOLUTION AT THIS TIMEL. HOWEVER I DO LIKE THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN WHICH IS WEAKER AND FASTER THAN THE 00Z RUN...BUT NOT AS WEAK AND FAST AS THE 12Z GFS. THE HPC ALSO PREFERS THE ECMWF SO THIS FORECAST LEANS IN THAT DIRECTION BEYOND SATURDAY. LOOKING AT COLD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY THOUGH THE FORECAST COULD BE HIGH DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW. HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN SOME MENTION OF SNOW...HOWEVER I WOULD NOT GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT SOLID PRECIP JUST YET. THE POP GRIDS WERE DONE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE PRECIP FURTHER NORTH SO WE MAY VERY WELL WIND UP ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE LOW ONCE AGAIN. HENNIG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 26 62 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 CARLSBAD NM 24 62 24 65 / 0 0 0 0 DRYDEN TX 32 63 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 36 68 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 GUADALUPE PASS TX 28 61 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 HOBBS NM 24 63 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 MARFA TX 19 61 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 24 62 26 64 / 0 0 0 0 ODESSA TX 25 63 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 WINK TX 25 66 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 44/10