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000 FXUS64 KLZK 261926 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 126 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009 .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS AR OVERNIGHT HAS ALLOWED FOR A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL...DRY AIR TO FILTER IN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WERE SUNNY...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH WEST AND NW WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS ON THIS THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES REMAINING SUNNY. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURAL STATE. WITH THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...AND WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EXPECTED NEAR SUNRISE...SUBSTANTIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MORNING LOWS A FEW DEGREES...WHICH ALSO UNDERCUTS GUIDANCE. THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF AR DROPPING TO OR SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING BY FRI MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA HAVE NOT SEEN TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING SO FAR THIS SEASON. FOR THIS REASON...WENT AHEAD AND POSTED A FREEZE WARNING FOR COUNTIES MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A BATESVILLE...TO SEARCY...TO PINE BLUFF...TO HERMITAGE LINE...EFFECTIVE FROM 08-15Z FRI. BEYOND FRI MORNING...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST...WITH SRLY SFC FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ABOVE NORMALS...AS WELL AS ALLOWING FOR SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT THE STATE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. && .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SAT INTO SUN...AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SUN INTO MON AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS AR. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR SVR WX REMAINS LOW AS FORECAST INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF AR BY MON EVENING...WITH THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION TUE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TUE...AS WELL AS POPS ALSO BELOW MENTION. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. WHILE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW CONUS...DETAILS REGARDING STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW...AND TIMING IN WHICH THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY LOW REGARDING DEPTH OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL ALSO DICTATE HOW MUCH COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS AR. WHILE ONE SOLUTION GENERATES COLD RAIN OR MAYBE A WINTRY MIX...THE LATEST GFS GENERATES LOWER QPF AND KEEPS TEMPS WARMER. THE ECMWF HAS GRADUALLY TRENDED BACK TOWARDS THE SCENARIOS SHOWN IN THE GFS...BUT HAS ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. CONTINUE WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE FORECAST WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM MAINLY DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTIES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FOR WED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...AND KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS...AND UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR LOWS TUE-THU. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 32 59 40 64 / 0 0 0 10 CAMDEN AR 31 64 43 67 / 0 0 0 10 HARRISON AR 31 61 42 64 / 0 0 0 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 31 62 42 65 / 0 0 0 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 31 61 41 65 / 0 0 0 10 MONTICELLO AR 34 62 42 66 / 0 0 0 10 MOUNT IDA AR 29 63 41 64 / 0 0 0 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 29 61 40 64 / 0 0 0 10 NEWPORT AR 32 58 40 64 / 0 0 0 10 PINE BLUFF AR 33 61 42 66 / 0 0 0 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 27 62 39 65 / 0 0 0 10 SEARCY AR 29 58 38 64 / 0 0 0 10 STUTTGART AR 34 59 40 65 / 0 0 0 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE- BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER- FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JEFFERSON- JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY- PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN- WHITE-YELL. && $$ 62