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228
FXUS64 KLCH 221440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
840 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS ACRS THE
AREA REPORTING VSBYS DOWN TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. A WARM
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NR THE COAST AND WILL LIFT NORTH THIS
MORNING ACRS THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO BEGIN CLEARING THE
FOG. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS VSBYS IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING...BUT THE
ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...WHILE A FRONTAL WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM OFF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST, OVERRUNNING LOW STRATUS AND SOME SEA FOG HAS MOVED
INTO THE LCH AIRPORT WITH MODERATE SE WINDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS.
LFT AND ARA ARE MORE INFLUENCED BY LIGHT NE WINDS UNDERCUTTING THE
SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

FURTHER NORTH, AEX HAS PATCHY LIFR WHERE A COLD POOL OF MOISTURE
HAS BEEN TRAPPED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
AROUND BPT HAS PRODUCED IFR CIGS IN OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND
WITH IMPROVEMENT ON VIS BUT IFR CIGS LINGERING UNTIL NOON AT LCH
AND ARA WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR...EARLIER IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING TO MVFR FOR LFT AND AEX. BPT SHOULD SEE MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR CONITIONS
IN THE BROAD FRONTAL ZONE AT THE SOUTH LA AIRPORTS. BPT AND AEX
SHOULD SEE AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY STARTS OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...BUT THERE COULD
ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AND
NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY
OCCUR IN SE TX OR SW LA. THE BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SOME STRONG ONES...WILL BE IN ACADIANA OR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

A COOL DOWN COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S
ON WEDNESDAY CHRISTMAS EVE...AND THEN LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CHRISTMAS DAY
SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THANKS TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
ON SATURDAY...SO I WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  57  63  43 /  20  20  70  40
KBPT  70  58  63  43 /  20  20  60  20
KAEX  71  55  62  41 /  20  20  70  40
KLFT  72  60  66  46 /  20  30  80  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-EVANGELINE-
     IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-
     ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON-WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HARDIN-
     JEFFERSON-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN
     JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-TYLER.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$







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