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005
FXUS64 KLCH 200246
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
946 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FAIRLY DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACRS THE AREA THIS
AFTN...INCLUDING SOME STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THAT TRAINED ACRS THE
LAKE CHARLES AREA. THESE STORMS DROPPED A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND PRODUCED SOME SIGNIFICANT STREET
FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH LITTLE...IF
ANY...PRECIP CURRENTLY NOTED ON KLCH 88D. THE SCT TO NUMRS SHOWERS
AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTN...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

ONLY ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO BRING
IN LINE WITH RECENT OBS AND LIKEWISE TWEAK LOWS SLIGHTLY AS TEMPS
DID NOT RECOVER MUCH AFTER AFTN CONVECTION DISSIPATED. ALSO MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX...AND UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE
EVENING POP WORDING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DIVERGENCE ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES...AS A COL IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT SEPARATES AN INVERTED
TROUGH (MOBILE-TO-TAMPICO AXIS) FROM A STALLED WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

23/MS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
KBPT  78  92  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
KAEX  74  95  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
KLFT  74  93  77  93 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






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