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277
FXUS64 KLCH 161615
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1115 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SE WINDS ~10-12 KTS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING TO 6 KTS OR LESS. SCT
CLOUDS OFFSHORE MAY MAKE IT WAY INLAND OVER SE TX/SW LA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK FOR SE TX/S LA TERMINALS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...AFTER A CHILLY AND IN SOME CASES FROSTY MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING QUICKLY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 50. A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH NON-FREEZING BUT RECORD LOWS
REPORTED AT KLCH AND KAEX ASOS SITES.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO WARM UP THIS MORNING SO WENT AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING FOR CNTL LA.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW LA/SE TX. FOR THIS FCST...WILL
CARRY SCT025...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT A TRUE MVFR CIG COULD
RESULT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY CHILLY MORNING UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WERE NR CALM ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES...WERE
STILL EXPERIENCING WINDS 5-10 MPH. THE NEARLY FULL MOON IS
BRIGHTLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING THANKS TO CLR SKIES. THE COMBINATION
OF CLR SKIES AND LT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ACRS CNTL
LA...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL QUITE AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING FOR THIS AREA WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL BRIEFLY
SEE FREEZING TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

DISCUSSION...
AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST
WITH SELY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
60S TODAY AND THEN TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY THROUGH THURS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT GENERATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS BY
THURS AFTN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLTD TO WIDELY
SCT COVG AS THE IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURS INTO FRI. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...CROSSING THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A
SHIFT TO NELY WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NR NORMAL.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SAT WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT PRIOR TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY EASTER SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A SLT
TO LOW END CHC IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FCST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS
THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NR 80.

MARINE...
STRONG NE TO E WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SELY BY THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  72  56  78  60 /  10  20  20  10  10
KBPT  56  73  58  78  62 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  45  71  54  76  57 /  10  10  20  10  10
KLFT  48  71  57  77  58 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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