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647
FXUS62 KKEY 021411
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1011 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF
BERMUDA EXTENDS WEST TO AN ANCHORING HIGH NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA
BORDER. IN BETWEEN...THE RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH BISECTING THE BAHAMAS. ACCORDING TO CIMSS ANALYSES...THE MAX
CURVATURE WITH THIS FEATURE IS NEAR 700 MB...WEAKLY LINKED WITH A
NEARLY COLOCATED TUTT. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT ARE
FROM THE EAST AND AVERAGE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S...AND SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
WESTWARD...YET SEEM TO BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE...RIGHT ON CUE WITH
THE END OF A NOCTURNALLY FAVORED REGIME.

.FORECAST...STEERING FLOW AND SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE JUST SOUTH
OF EAST...CONGEALING CLOUD LINES AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS.
THE ONLY ENHANCING MESOSCALE FACTOR WE CAN IDENTIFY WOULD BE ANDROS
ISLAND...WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT INFLUENCE THE UPPER KEYS UNTIL THIS
EVENING. WE AGREE WITH THE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FORECAST...A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT APPEAR A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE CONCERNING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST FROM THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW THIS
MORNING...AS WELL AS AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THESE
POSSIBILITIES ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1935...THE
LABOR DAY HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL NEAR LONG KEY...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 185 MPH. THIS IS THE MOST INTENSE HURRICANE TO
EVER MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1851. THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE OF 1935 RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED FROM A
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE NEAR ANDROS ISLAND INTO A CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE...BEFORE STRIKING THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS. THERE WAS NEAR
COMPLETE DESTRUCTION ALONG A 30-MILE WIDE SWATH FROM TAVERNIER TO
MARATHON. THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE OF 1935 CAUSED 408 CASUALTIES IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS...MAKING IT THE 8TH DEADLIEST HURRICANE IN THE
HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1851.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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