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[Printable]
914
FXUS62 KKEY 271837
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
237 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...PRESSING AGAINST THE TRAILING LOWER PRESSURE
(COL-REGION) OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. A SEPARATE ANTICYCLONIC SYSTEM
LIES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...LEAVING THE KEYS ON THE CUSP OF DRY CONTINENTAL AIR TO THE
NORTH...AND THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR TO OUR SOUTH. AS A
RESULT...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA. ACROSS THE OTHER TWO THIRDS...MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...WHICH APPEAR
ISENTROPIC...CORROBORATED BY THE VEERING PROFILE ON THE KBYX VWP.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90...AND SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A DENIGRATED FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE KEYS TONIGHT...ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SIGNAL THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF
THE RIDGE WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE FRESHENING
BREEZES...DRIER AIR...AND MORE STATIC STABILITY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. BREEZES WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN AND VEER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A DEEP RIDGE AXIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RESULTING IN FRESH EASTERLY
BREEZES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZES MAY SLACKEN ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT
EYW THIS AFTERNOON AND AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THESE POSSIBILITIES ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL
VEER TO SOUTH AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1956...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 95 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
AUGUST 27TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 58 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82  91  83  91 / 40 40 40 30
MARATHON  81  91  82  92 / 40 40 40 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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