032
FXUS62 KJAX 230647
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
223 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/...

TODAY...SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE LINE OF CONVECTION
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EAST. AT THIS TIME WILL FOCUS BEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. EXPECT PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER WITH
SURFACE WAVE WILL HELP MINIMIZE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE FOG.
WEAK TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO PUSH INLAND. AS THE FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY WESTERLY TODAY...EXPECT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL BE PINNED TO NEAR THE COAST. THEREFORE...FOCUSING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. AS THE SEA BREEZE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT FAR INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
HEAT UP...WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST REACHING
HIGHS AROUND 90.

TONIGHT...ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITH CONVECTION LINGERING OVER THE WATERS. A
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AND LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT.

FRIDAY...SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. A NOTICEABLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT SOUTH BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY FOR
CONVECTION TO INITIATE AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE SOUTH. WILL HOLD ANY
PRECIP MENTION UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL EFFECTS HAVE A CHANCE
TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS TIMING...WILL LIMIT THE PRECIP TO
THE FAR SOUTH. WHILE EXPECTING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO BE COOLER FRIDAY
FOLLOWING THE TROUGH...AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW HEATING TO
AROUND NORMAL THERE.

FRI NIGHT...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW
TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S
INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S TOWARD THE COAST UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

WEEKEND...A GORGEOUS WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPS UNDER NW FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NNE OF THE REGION. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST UNDER
BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 50S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 60S COAST. NOT MUCH FOG EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS AN AXIS
OVER THE GA/SC COASTLINE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER
MEAN LAYER RIDGING...BUT CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A LOW 20% CHANCE OF
PASSING COASTAL SHOWERS TUE-THU. MAX TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH VALUES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BY THU WITH HIGHS
NEAR 90 INLAND TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST. MINS WILL RANGE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FROM THE LOW 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...ANTICIPATE MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. WILL MONITOR PROGRESS AND
EVOLUTION OF SQUALL LINE OVER SE GA TO SEE IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEEDS TO BE INCLUDED AT SSI LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTS ON THE LINE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING AS IT
NEARS THE GA COAST. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AS WSW WINDS PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CONTINUED WITH VCSH AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER WILL CROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THIS
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ONSHORE FLOW...AND AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

RIP CURRENTS...LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
ELEVATED OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH DISPERSIONS WILL BE HEADLINED TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES INLAND RISE TO NEAR 90 INLAND UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI WHEN RHS WILL
FALL TO NEAR 30% INLAND UNDER NW FLOW. OVER THE WEEKEND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CRASH INTO THE 25-30% RANGE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON WITH
NNE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  63  87  53 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  87  69  88  62 /  20  20  10   0
JAX  89  67  89  58 /  30  20  10   0
SGJ  87  70  87  66 /  20  20  10   0
GNV  91  65  91  59 /  20  10  10   0
OCF  90  66  92  61 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/ENYEDI