258
FXUS62 KJAX 040802
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
302 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO MID 20S IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
AS THE HARD FREEZE SPREADS OVER THE INTERIOR. WINDS ARE MOSTLY
CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD/FROSTY
START...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY
AFTN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS SOME CIRRUS INVADES THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SWLY IN
THE AFTN AS HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT TOWARD SOUTH FL/BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH A LIGHT SLY FLOW TONIGHT HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT STILL
MAY HAVE PATCHY FROST INLAND WHERE TEMPS WILL DIP 35-40 DEG RANGE.
COASTAL ZONES WILL HAVE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S.

TUE/TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NW OF THE REGION TUESDAY
AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A BREEZY SW FLOW
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH BY TUE
AFTN. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ROLLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
LOW TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION LATE TUE WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO SE GA. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTH
TUE NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER SE GA TUE EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DWINDLING TO LOW CHANCE POPS OVER NE FL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR 70 OVER SE GA AND LOW 70S FOR NE FL. LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT
WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING
SKIES OVER SE GA. WILL LEAN TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE WHICH IS 20-25 DEG
RANGE FOR SE GA TO THE MID 50S OVER MARION COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...FROM DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY.
TEMPS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD DUE TO STRONG WEST WINDS. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 AND MID 40S ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AS THE DEEP LOW TRACKS NE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOL AND DRY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL BUT
NO FREEZES ARE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEA BOARD AS THE DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DRY WITH A NE FLOW ALONG WITH
A WARMING TREND DUE TO MID/UPPER RIDGING IN THE AREA. TEMPS WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE DEEP LOW WELL
OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS RESULTING IN
ROUGH SURF AND AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS ONGOING OFFSHORE NE FL DUE TO TIGHT
GRADIENT OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY AND WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA OFFSHORE TIL 10 AM.
WILL CANCEL SCA NEAR SHORE AS WINDS AT ALL COASTAL SITES...INCLUDING
THE ST AUGUSTINE BCH PIER...ARE WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE BY LATE TUES AS
A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WINDS IS EXPECTED BY TUES NIGHT AND
WED...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL LEGS AND A
POSSIBLE GALE EVENT OFFSHORE FOR WED AND WED NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE ON
THURS...AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE LATE THIS WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. AN ELEVATED
RISK IS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO LARGE
LONG PERIOD SWELLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PRODUCE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS
AND ALLOW FIRE FIGHTERS TO CONTAIN EXISTING WILDFIRES IN THE
REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW...IN THE
20-25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTN. HOWEVER THE ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND NO FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...THEN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES DRY AGAIN WED-SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  39  70  41 /   0   0  20  40
SSI  54  45  66  46 /   0   0   0  40
JAX  61  39  73  46 /   0   0   0  30
SGJ  57  43  72  52 /   0   0   0  30
GNV  62  37  74  49 /   0   0   0  30
OCF  64  39  75  54 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

TRABERT/PETERSON