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476
FXUS62 KJAX 220906
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
506 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...HOT WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY...EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES TODAY AND
TOMORROW. HEAT INDICES WILL AVERAGE 105 TO 108 DEGREES. JUST ABOUT
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING DEWPOINTS GETTING MIXED DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. WE ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND WENT
A LITTLE ABOVE CONSENSUS BUT HEAT INDICES STILL COMING UP
GENERALLY IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. WE WILL RETAIN HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ON SATURDAY WHEN HEAT INDICES COULD END UP BEING THE HIGHEST OF
THE WEEK WITH VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 110 DEGREES IN A FEW
SPOTS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ACTS
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. A FEW STORMS THOUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND NE FL AS THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE MOVES ALL THE WAY TO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AND CLASHES
WITH THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT BETTER
CHANCES FOR STORMS ON SATURDAY AND WE WILL GO WITH POPS OF 30-40%
ACROSS NE FL WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION SUN AFTN. A N-NE STEERING FLOW WILL
PUSH THE STORMS TO THE FL GULF COAST LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE CAPPED
POPS AT 50% FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WITH THE HOTTEST ZONES
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM /MON-THU/...
FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DEPENDENT ON THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAINING EAST OF OUR AREA. THE HOT SPELL WILL
BE BROKEN WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO A MORE NORMAL RANGE. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE ATLC COAST TO LOWER
90S WELL INLAND. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BECOME WEDGED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD CREATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY.
NELY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15-20 MPH NEAR THE COAST. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MID WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH AND
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS COASTAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MOVING INLAND EARLY MORNING THEN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND FOCUSING NER THE I-75
CORRIDOR LATE EACH DAY. WILL KEEP SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE FL
AND ISOLD TO SCTD OVER SE GA CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH VCTS AT GNV WHERE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCAL SEA
BREEZES KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED NORTHEAST SURGE WILL BRING AT LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS
(15 TO 20 KTS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS) INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A MODERATE RISK WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

RECORD HIGHS  TODAY    SAT 8/23
JAX          100/1900   98/1966
GNV           99/1983   99/1902
AMG          100/1968   99/1968
SSI           97/1966   95/2006

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 100  75 100  77 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  95  79  95  79 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  98  76  99  78 /  10  10  30  30
SGJ  94  77  95  78 /  10  10  30  30
GNV  98  74  99  76 /  30  30  30  30
OCF  96  74  98  76 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/TRABERT





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