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258
FXUS62 KJAX 312019
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
319 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGING AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL UNDER NE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST TNGT...PUSHING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL MOVE EAST INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TNGT/SUNDAY OFFSHORE. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN LIMITED AREA WIDE...THUS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OFFSHORE WITH THE
COASTAL TROUGH...AND ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SE GA LATE SUNDAY AFTN
WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND A FEW
MORE HIGH CLOUDS...LOWS TNGT WILL NOT BE AS CHILLY...WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 INLAND...AND MID/UPPER 40S COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST
AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD
TO THE E COAST DRAGGING A SFC COLD FRONT TO OUR WRN ZONES BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. VERY MILD MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AS
CLOUDS INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES INITIALLY LOW SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASE QUICKLY FROM W TO E AS THE FRONT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FEEDS
SW TO NE ACROSS OUR REGION. RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A BIT
BEGINNING BY AROUND THE 06Z MON TIME FRAME...EXTENDING INTO MON
MORNING.

MONDAY...EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT...ORIENTED SW TO NE OVER
PORTIONS OF SE GA...TO PUSH SEWD THROUGH MON MORNING AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EWD AND OFF THE COAST BY 00Z TUE. FEEL
THE NAM IS A BIT TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONT SO PREFERRED GFS/EURO
SOLUTION FOR FRONTAL TIMING. WHILE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
EARLY MON LEFT OUT FOR NOW DUE TO RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITIES AND
VERY WEAK FORECAST INSTABILITY. PRECIP EXPECTED TO EXIT SEWD OF
THE AREA BY MID AFTN ON MONDAY WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY NW-N WINDY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER AS THE FRONT PUSHES DOWN STATE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
MUCH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S NORTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE. A LIGHT
FREEZE LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE GA WITH THIN HIGH
CLOUDS LIKELY DOING LITTLE TO HINDER RADIATIONAL COOLING AFFECTS.

TUESDAY...BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE SE STATES
WITH RESULTANT LIGHT FLOW. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME BUT LOWER
THICKNESSES OVER MONDAY`S WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SENDING SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODERATING MIN TEMPS EXPECTED AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO AND
TX.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP INDUCE WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL
TRANSLATE EWD WHILE OTHER WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES DEVELOP IN THE
NRN GULF AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND MOVES
ESE. AS A RESULT...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO OUR SRN
AREAS BY EARLY THU. A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIFT
EXPECTED BY WED NIGHT BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THU.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE MID AND UPPER AIR PATTERN THU AND
FRI...WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE MS
VALLEY THU NIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FCST TO MOVE IN THU NIGHT
THROUGH SAT AS COLD HIGH PRES MOVES IN FROM THE N. GENERALLY...LOW
CONFIDENCE THU THROUGH SAT DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES BUT INDICATED
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
MOVE E OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TNGT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
NE OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SUNDAY
WITH SCEC LIKELY OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTN. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE WATERS...WITH
STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
ISSUE A SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
SUB-CAUTION CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  38  70  57  59 /   0  10  70  60
SSI  44  66  57  64 /  10  10  50  70
JAX  42  72  59  66 /   0  10  50  70
SGJ  49  71  60  69 /   0  10  40  70
GNV  42  74  59  67 /   0   0  50  60
OCF  44  76  59  69 /   0   0  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/SHASHY




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