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255
FXUS62 KJAX 280742
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

...ANOTHER MARGINAL FREEZE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER INLAND AREAS...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONG ENOUGH ON THE SOUTHEAST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO KEEP WINDS STIRRING A BIT EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS MORNINGS LOWS. WILL KEEP
FREEZE WARNING GOING...BUT READINGS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH.
WITH THE LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
THE CENTER MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE WILL
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE INLAND. LOWS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A FREEZE
WARNING ONCE AGAIN...SO WILL HOLD OFF AND LET NEXT SHIFT LOOK AT
LATEST GUIDANCE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.

THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE SATURDAY...ALLOWING READINGS TO
RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO
MODERATE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND 60S NEAR THE
COAST IN THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW. LOWS WILL MODERATE FROM THE
40S INLAND SUNDAY MORNING TO THE UPPER 40S/50S MONDAY MORNING.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG MAY BEGIN TO BECOME AN ISSUE
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE...BUT TOO EARLY TO BEGIN
PLACING IN THE ZFP/GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY-FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE NORTH OF THE REGION AND THIS
WILL PROMOTE A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE NE FL/SE GA COASTAL
AREAS AND THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT MAY EXTEND
INLAND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO VALUES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEG RANGE AND MIN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO VALUES IN THE 50 TO 55 RANGE. OTHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ONLY OTHER IMPACT EXPECTED MAY BE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG OVER INLAND AREAS IN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH THIS 06Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY. AS IT DOES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN RESULTING IN DECREASING WIND SPEEDS
TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW.

A STRONGER HIGH WILL BUILD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE WIND. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SOME INLAND AREAS MAY SEE MIN RH VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS ALONG WITH MOIST FUEL MOISTURE VALUES DUE TO RECENT
RAINS SO NO RED FLAG HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  30  63  42 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  53  38  62  49 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  54  35  65  46 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  55  43  65  52 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  57  35  68  46 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  59  37  69  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS






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