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023
FZAK80 PAFC 192156
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKDT FRIDAY 17 SEPTEMBER 2014

FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY 24 SEPTEMBER 2014

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MODERATE.

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
ALASKA AND THE NORTHWEST CANADIAN TERRITORIES WILL PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY, WITH MINOR VARIATIONS IN THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. LATE SUNDAY A MODERATE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE
RUSSIAN FAR EAST AND TRACK OVER THE CHUCKCHI SEA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STORM CENTER WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST, SOUTH OF THE
ICE EDGE, TO A POINT ABOUT 125 NM NORTH OF FLAXMAN ISLAND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-

ICE COVERED.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM A POINT ROUGHLY 120 NM NORTH OF BARROW
TO 74.5N 159.3W TO 76.4N 159.0W TO 76.9N 164.0W TO 74.4N 175.6E TO
74.4N 180 AND CONTINUES TO THE WEST IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC. THE ICE
EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...MODERATE EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ICE EDGE WILL BECOME LIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EAST FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE SUNDAY, AND
STRONG MONDAY THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINING BELT OF ROTTING SEA ICE NEAR 74N IS
EXPECTED TO MELT OUT TO SEA ICE FREE CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CHUKCHI SEA ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT 20 TO 30
NM TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH STRIPS OF ICE BEING PULLED OFF
WEST FACING ICE PACK EDGES.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BANKS ISLAND NEAR
72.8N 125.1W TO 71.6N 132.0W TO 71.3N 138.1W TO 73.5N 148.7W TO
72.8N 153.6W TO A POINT ROUGHLY 120 NM NORTH OF BARROW. THE ICE EDGE
RANGES FROM OPEN WATER TO 2 TENTHS FIRST YEAR MEDIUM...FIRST YEAR
THIN AND OLD ICE.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA...MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE ICE EDGE
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY. A RETURN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THE ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT 25 TO 35 NM TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH STRIPS OF ICE
BEING PULLED OFF WEST FACING EDGES OF THE MAIN ICE PACK.

DBPERCY
$$




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