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591
AGUS71 KTAR 221607
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1205 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z( 10 AM EDT ) MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL CUTOFF CAUSING THE STORM TO MEANDER/HEAD NORTHEAST
INTO FRIDAY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
:
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST
ATLANTIC INFLOW AND MOIST CONVEYOR BELT TARGETING AREAS FROM
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MAINE AND
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH 8 AM EDT FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
:
NERFC METEOROLOGISTS AND HYDROLOGISTS ARE MONITORING THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY SINCE RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
:
RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS HEAVIEST IN COASTAL SOUTHERN
MAINE WHERE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WAS COMMON (PORTLAND RECEIVED 1.90
INCHES)  THIS HEAVY RAINFALL AREA IS NEARLY THE SAME AREA WHERE WE
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 24 TO 72 HOURS.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND WILL INTENSIFY
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS ARE WETTER
THAN EARLIER IN THE MONTH WITH RECENT RAINFALL LATE LAST WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BASINS
RECEIVED UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT ADDING TO THE
WETTER CONDITIONS. FURTHER, EVAPO- TRANSPIRATION CONTINUES TO
DECLINE WITH THE LOSS OF LEAF COVER.
:
THE GREATEST FORECAST RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
FORECAST LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN MAINE, MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TOMORROW. RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXCEED
THE RECENT RISES LAST WEEKEND WITH THE ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION
AND THE INCREASED RUNOFF.
:
MOST RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW BANK-FULL
LEVELS IN THE NERFC REGION. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR RIVER LEVELS OF RAPIDLY RESPONDING
HEADWATER AND SMALLER TRIBUTARY RIVERS TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS AT AN ISOLATED RIVER FORECAST LOCATION OR TWO, PARTICULARLY
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO
FORECAST LOCATIONS FOR THE PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT WOODSTOCK, NH,
SACO RIVER AT CONWAY, NH, AND SWIFT RIVER AT ROXBURY, ME.
:
WHERE SOME RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE, NORTHERN VERMONT, NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE RIVER LEVELS RESPONDED WITH MINOR TO SMALL RISES. ELSEWHERE
RIVER LEVELS MAINTAINED EARLIER RECESSION TRENDS. RECEDING TRENDS
VARIED ANYWHERE FROM MODERATELY TO SLOWLY AT FORECAST LOCATIONS.
FLUCTUATIONS OF SEVERAL FEET OCCURRED FOR FORECAST LOCATIONS
DOWNSTREAM OF DAMS OR AT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TIDAL CYCLE.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE... 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS RELATIVE TO THOSE OCCURRING HISTORICALLY FOR TUESDAY,
10/21 ARE IN THE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGES ACROSS MOST OF
NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASED
RIVER FLOWS HAVE PROVIDED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FLOWS SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE, WESTERN MAINE
, MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN TO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND, EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS,
AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE RECORDED WEEKLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       ED CAPONE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER





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