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407
AGUS71 KTAR 311544
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1136 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
MID-MORNING WV ( WATER VAPOR ) IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE WHICH IS
SWINGING AROUND A LARGER UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS ENTERING THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS AS OF 10
AM EDT. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ROTATE
NORTHEAST...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO EARLY TONIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES SINCE THE STORMS SHOULD BE
PROGRESSIVE BUT SOME INDIVIDUAL POINT RAINFALLS MAY APPROACH OR
EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
:
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CREEPING NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL SET UP NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW ENGLAND SOUTH COAST AND THAT COULD BRING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THOSE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING AN INCH.
:
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN NEW YORK STATE JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO. SEVERAL
AMOUNTS OF OVER 2.50 INCHES WERE REPORTED INTO THE NERFC THIS
MORNING WHICH INCLUDED 3.78 INCHES AT NIAGARA FALLS AIRPORT...3.24
INCHES IN PENDLETON AND 2.60 INCHES IN NORTH TONOWANDA. WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE POINT RAINFALLS AS HEAVY AS THAT TODAY OR TONIGHT.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS SUCH
THERE IS INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHERE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. CONVECTIVE STORMS AND RAINFALL OVER THE SMALLER, MORE
RAPIDLY RESPONSIVE HEADWATER BASINS IN THESE AREAS MAY RESULT IN
MODERATE RIVER LEVEL RISES. BUT RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW BANK-FULL AT FORECAST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, RISING
RIVER LEVELS WILL BE MINOR OR WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE.
:
YESTERDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN, CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE, NORTHERN VERMONT, AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN
MAINE. THE RAINFALL PROVIDED FOR MINOR TO MODERATE 1 TO 3 FT
RISING RESPONSES FOR SOME OF THE MORE RAPIDLY RESPONSIVE BASINS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. ELSEWHERE, RIVER LEVELS CONTINUED
RECEDING TRENDS OF THE PRIOR 24 HOURS.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATERWATCH WEBPAGE, 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS RELATIVE TO HISTORICALLY RECORDED FLOWS FOR YESTERDAY,
7/30 GENERALLY RANGE FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. ABOVE NORMAL FLOW
CONDITIONS ARE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
STATE, MOST OF VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE, WESTERN MAINE AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BELOW NORMAL FLOW CONDITIONS ARE
DOMINANT IN EASTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS, EASTERN CONNECTICUT,
AND MOST OF RHODE ISLAND. ELSEWHERE, 7-DAY AVERAGE FLOW CONDITIONS
ARE THE NORMAL RANGE.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER





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