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AGUS74 KFWR 011632
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1132 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

                VALID SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 6

...COASTAL PRECIPITATION CALMS A BIT AS A STORM BREWS NEAR THE
YUCATAN...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The onshore flow causing the most of the coastal showers over the
past few days has calmed a bit allowing a slight reprieve in the Gulf
coast precipitation for Texas.  There still should be some isolated
storm development as the day progresses with the focus being more
towards Louisiana than the Texas Gulf coast.  These storms have left
widespread 3-5 inches of rainfall over the past few days with
isolated areas seeing closer to 8 inches.  Most of this rainfall;
however, occurred within 50 miles of the coast with very little
extending inland.  While the precipitation should be somewhat calmer
today, model guidance suggests this activity to still continue over
the next few days.  However, it should be more isolated storms than
widespread rainfall.

The other area of interest is the tropical system emerging on the
other side of the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.  The
primary reason that coastal precipitation does not appear to be
ending soon is this system will continue the entrainment of moisture
towards the coast.  While not currently forecasted to make landfall
over the United States, it will generate storm activity for south
Texas especially near the coast at Brownsville.  The National
Hurricane Center gives it a 60% chance of reaching tropical storm
criteria, but overall it will not have enough time over water to gain
any significant strength.  Just a rain producer for south Texas and
for north Mexico.  No significant flooding is expected at this time
but WGRFC will continue to track the storm development.

For the other 95% of the WGRFC area, it will remain dry aloft as a
weak high pressure struggles to develop out west.  This will keep
most of the area in dry warm conditions for the forecast period.  A
storm off the western coast of Mexico may allow for moisture to
stream into New Mexico and set up the monsoonal activity later in the
week.  Otherwise, warm and dry with no flooding expected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of

Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico.  Statewide, New
Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas
remains in exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are
impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in
New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas
of the state.  Some runoff can be expected along the immediate Texas
Gulf coast the next 5 days, but minor or no runoff is anticipated
elsewhere.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall during the past several days has increased soil moisture and
river conditions to near or above seasonal normals in portions of
southeastern Texas and along the Texas Gulf Coast. Elsewhere, soil
conditions remain dry, and river conditions are generally below
seasonal normal flows. No significant flooding is forecast to occur
through the forecast period.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


$$






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