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948
AGUS74 KFWR 241723
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1223 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

                    VALID JULY 24 THROUGH JULY 29

...WHILE THE MONSOON CONTINUES OVER THE WEST, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF TEXAS UNTIL SOME RAIN ARRIVES NEXT WEEK...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level high pressure system is centered over southeastern
Colorado this morning.  This feature will remain a dominant factor in
our weather pattern throughout the rest of the week into the weekend.
The ridge will settle in over the Texas/New Mexico border region
through the weekend, then will break down and shrink in size by
next Tuesday.  This will keep temperatures warm and will retard
rainfall over most of the WGRFC forecast area until early next week.

The ridge will bring generally rain-free conditions for Texas through
the weekend, with the exception of continued isolated thunderstorms
along and near the Gulf coast in southeast Texas fed by off-shore
breezes.  Additionally, an upper air disturbance is located over
southern Louisiana this morning.  This easterly wave has become nearly
stationary but is close enough to enhance the chances for rain over
southeast Texas and southern Louisiana through this evening.  This
wave will weaken as it approaches the Texas Gulf coast on Friday,
but isolated thunderstorms will persist near the upper Texas Gulf
coast through the weekend.  And, a complex of thunderstorms moved
southward across east Texas Wednesday.  These thunderstorms produced
one to three inches of rain in the greater Houston area the past 24
hours. After tonight, little or no rain is forecast over Texas into
Monday morning.

Farther west, a monsoonal plume of moisture moving up from the
south will feed storm activity each afternoon and evening for the
next 5 days.  Areas of northwest New Mexico and southwest Colorado
should be affected today.  This activity should continue nearly
every afternoon the next 5 days, providing some potential for
convective activity as rainfall associated with the monsoon helps to
alleviate some of the adverse impacts of the persistent drought that
has plagued the region.  The best chances for rain in this region
appears to be Sunday and Monday.

By Monday a large trough of low pressure is forecast to develop over
the eastern third of the U.S.  Within the developing northwesterly
upper air flow, a cold front will slide down into the southern plains
into Texas on Monday. Some shower activity is forecast to occur along
and near the cold front over primarily north Texas later Monday into
Tuesday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast in the headwaters of the
upper Rio Grande over southwest Colorado, as well as over and near
the Texas Gulf coastal areas into southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana.  Lighter amounts of MAP of less than 0.25 of an inch are
forecast over southern Colorado, the northwestern quarter of New
Mexico, over the southeastern third of Texas, and most of Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  Lighter amounts of MAP of less than
0.25 of an inch are forecast over a good part of Colorado and northern
New Mexico, as well as over extreme east Texas and southern Louisiana.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  Lighter amounts of MAP of less than
0.25 of an inch are forecast over most of Colorado, northern and
western New Mexico, extreme southeast Texas, and southern Louisiana.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande including
southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.  Lighter amounts of MAP
of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over Colorado, much of New
Mexico, the northern third of Texas, and Louisiana.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and
33% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the
drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the
drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More
rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to
ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be
minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf
coast.  Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast locations are below bankfull level.
Significant rainfall is not forecast through the end of the forecast
period.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$





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