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AGUS74 KFWR 231554
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1054 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 23 THROUGH OCTOBER 28

...A BRIEF SPELL OF WARM DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

As an upper level disturbance passed through the WGRFC from west to
east over the past 24 hours, some light rainfall amounts were
recorded. Offshore rains in deep south Texas left heavier amounts of
rainfall around Brownsville.  Scattered showers associated with this
passing short wave trough will continue eastward throughout the
morning eventually exiting Texas later today.

As this system exits the area, a subtropical high nudges in from the
desert southwest.  This strong dome of high pressure will be centered
over New Mexico by Friday afternoon. Friday through the weekend looks
mostly dry for the WGRFC area as this upper level ridge builds from
the west. With this high pressure ridge, unseasonably warm
temperatures are expected over the next three days with record
temperatures possible on Saturday.

As an upper level trough located off the Oregon coast moves east, it
will begin to impact the western portions of WGRFC forecast area.  A
transition to cooler weather is expected from this system as a cold
front pushes into New Mexico perhaps as early as Sunday evening. This
weak front is expected to pass slowly through the area bringing
increased chances for rain to north and far east Texas late Tuesday
into Wednesday evening.  The progress of the system will be monitored
and updates provided throughout the forecast period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. No significant rainfall is expected for most
areas within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall continues around the Rio Grande area but the isolated nature
of the rainfall is keeping the threat of flooding to a minimum.  All
other WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions.
Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause
mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$






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