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862 AGUS74 KFWR 231554 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1054 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014 VALID OCTOBER 23 THROUGH OCTOBER 28 ...A BRIEF SPELL OF WARM DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... As an upper level disturbance passed through the WGRFC from west to east over the past 24 hours, some light rainfall amounts were recorded. Offshore rains in deep south Texas left heavier amounts of rainfall around Brownsville. Scattered showers associated with this passing short wave trough will continue eastward throughout the morning eventually exiting Texas later today. As this system exits the area, a subtropical high nudges in from the desert southwest. This strong dome of high pressure will be centered over New Mexico by Friday afternoon. Friday through the weekend looks mostly dry for the WGRFC area as this upper level ridge builds from the west. With this high pressure ridge, unseasonably warm temperatures are expected over the next three days with record temperatures possible on Saturday. As an upper level trough located off the Oregon coast moves east, it will begin to impact the western portions of WGRFC forecast area. A transition to cooler weather is expected from this system as a cold front pushes into New Mexico perhaps as early as Sunday evening. This weak front is expected to pass slowly through the area bringing increased chances for rain to north and far east Texas late Tuesday into Wednesday evening. The progress of the system will be monitored and updates provided throughout the forecast period. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Sunday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme to exceptional drought. No significant rainfall is expected for most areas within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Rainfall continues around the Rio Grande area but the isolated nature of the rainfall is keeping the threat of flooding to a minimum. All other WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions. Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$