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AGUS74 KFWR 311621
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1120 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

                   VALID JULY 31 THROUGH AUGUST 5

...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SABINE AND
NECHES RIVER SYSTEMS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW..

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact areas
of Northeast and East Texas the next several hours. Overnight, a
large complex of thunderstorms associated with an upper level
disturbance, developed over Oklahoma and moved across the
Red River and North Texas. This activity is responsible for the
4.00 to 5.00 inches of precipitation that fell across portions of
Oklahoma. Farther south across areas of Northeast Texas, 2.00 to
3.00 inches of precipitation fell across this area. Current rainfall
amounts are averaging 0.50 inch to 1.00 inch per hour and this trend
should continue through the afternoon hours. Higher than normal
flows are occurring across some of the basins within the upper
Sabine River system, however moderate or greater flooding is not
expected at this time.

Heavy rainfall will continue across portions of East and Southeast
Texas through early tomorrow. As a surface low and associated cold
front begin to move out of area by late tonight/early tomorrow,
rainfall will quickly end from west to east. Another 0.50 to 1.00
inch is expected across portions of this area, however no additional
significant flooding is expected.

By Friday, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build across
most of the region, this will allow milder and drier air to
temporarily move into the area. Elsewhere, portions of New Mexico
and Colorado will once again be impacted by additional heavy
rainfall. Over the weekend, a subtropical wave is forecast to move
northward from the Gulf of California into portions of New Mexico.
An additional 2.00 to 3.00 inch rains are possible through early
next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of rainfall amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for
portions of East Texas and New Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are
forecast for portions of New Mexico and Colorado. Lesser amounts are
forecast for portions of the southeast Texas coast.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are
forecast for portions of West Texas and New Mexico.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of Colorado and New Mexico.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and
33% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the
drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the
drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More
rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to
ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be
minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf
coast. Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Pecos Basin...
Monsoonal activity continues in many locations over New Mexico
with some locally heavy rains being reported.  Rain is expected
to continue into Saturday morning with heavier amounts anticipated
Friday afternoon.  The draws and creeks around Carlsbad have
received intense localized heavy rainfall with significant street
flooding being reported earlier this morning. This activity will
be closely monitored for any additional heavy runoff episodes.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Heavy rains over the past 12 hours around the Dallas/Fort Worth
metroplex and points northeast in the upper Neches and Sabine
basins have caused flashy rises in the streams. For the most part
the rains have been beneficial with the exception of minor street
flooding. Beneficial monsoonal rains continue over many location in
New Mexico with some locally heavy rains noted in the upper Pecos
basin over the past couple of days.  No significant mainstem
flooding is anticipated at this time but conditions will continue
to be monitored closely.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$






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