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517 AGUS74 KFWR 121632 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1131 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 VALID MARCH 12 THROUGH MARCH 17 ...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH, DRY AIR TO PERSIST FOR REST OF WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The seemingly endless supply of arctic cold fronts continues as another front has pushed through Texas bringing cold dry air to the area. Zonal flow has returned aloft and should prevail for a day or so keeping dry air predominant over the entire WGRFC area. Temperatures will be cool again tonight before slowly climbing back to normal heading into the weekend. A weak ridge will pass over Friday in advance of an upper level trough driving in from the Pacific. It will be carrying some moisture to generate some light precipitation over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado as it approaches the WGRFC Saturday morning. Currently forecasted to be a fast moving system, this low should ride along the Red River pushing east and will more than likely only bring very light precip to eastern Texas Saturday afternoon. There is little moisture in the mid levels to support any sort of significant rainfall with this weak system. Going into Sunday and Monday morning, a much stronger low pressure system will move into northern New Mexico diving down into western Texas. Again, a lack of overall moisture throughout the atmosphere will prevent any significant rainfall for central and southern Texas, but this system has a better chance for precipitation than the weaker system on Saturday. It will, of course, bring yet another cold front dropping temperatures once again Sunday night into Monday morning. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches are forecasted by WPC for eastern Texas with 0.25 extending further west through the metroplex down through Austin. Almost all of New Mexico and 91% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 9% of Texas and 23% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. The upper Rio Grande in south central Colorado is in the abnormally dry category. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are on average at 64% full. This is record lowest average reservoir storage for this time of year, with average being about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Significant improvement in the drought is not expected in the short term for the WGRFC area, but some minor improvement is likely occurring from the middle Texas Gulf coast into parts of deep south Texas. The forecast precipitation totals are favorable for continued minor runoff along the Texas Gulf coast the next five days, but because of the dry soil moisture conditions the rainfall will not be heavy enough to produce enough runoff to produce mainstem river flooding. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...San Bernard Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Locally heavy rainfall occurred this past weekend on the upper part of the San Bernard River Basin. The San Bernard River near East Bernard (EBBT2) crested slightly above flood stage yesterday. The increased flow along downstream reaches is not expected to exceed criteria. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... Rainfall occurred this past weekend primarily over South Texas and along and near the Texas Gulf Coast. Basin averaged rainfall estimates over the past four days range from less than one half inch for most of Texas and New Mexico to 2.5 inches near the coast. Generally minor additional rises are expected in response to observed and forecasted rainfall. Therefore, no significant flooding is forecast for the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org GIARDINO $$