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AGUS74 KFWR 291656
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1056 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

                 VALID JANUARY 29 THROUGH FEBRUARY 3

...RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MOST PORTIONS
OF THE WGRFC FORECAST AREA...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Moisture will continue to increase across portions of Colorado and
New Mexico, in advance of this system. Tomorrow this system is
forecast to deepen and move into California digging southward over
Baja California. As this system slowly approaches from the west,
showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop over Colorado and
New Mexico and eventually become more widespread across most areas
along and west of I-35.

Cooler and wetter conditions will arrive later tonight as the upper
level storm system moves into New Mexico. Precipitation will be
widespread over most of New Mexico and persist into Saturday.
Significant, much needed snows are likely across the higher
elevations, especially above 7500 feet, with a mix of rain and
snow at lower elevations.

By late Friday/early Saturday, rains will continue to spread across
the remainder of the WGRFC region, mainly for areas along and east of
I-35 and along the southeast coast. Rainfall amounts may cause some
minor flooding and isolated moderate flooding in basins across
Southeast Texas. This especially applies to locations that are
currently experiencing minor flooding from last week`s rainfall event.
By Sunday, a cold front is expected to push south across Texas
allowing precipitation to quickly end across the region. Conditions
will once again dry out temporarily with more rains expected along
the southeast coastal basins mid week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for southwestern New Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 of an inch are
forecast for most of New Mexico extending into far west Texas with
MAP amounts of 0.25 covering the remaining western half of Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for the eastern half of New Mexico and a large portion of
Texas with the heaviest amounts over the upper Brazos and portions of
the upper Colorado river basins.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are
forecast for the coastal basins of Texas from Brownsville northeast
through Louisiana.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, almost half the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (39%), and 11% has extreme to exceptional
drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. Outside of east and southeast Texas,
soils are generally dry.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Trinity River at Bluff (MBFT2) will remain above criteria for the
next few days.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues on the Neches and Angelina rivers.  Flooding
near Diboll (DIBT2) and Lufkin (LUFT2) will continue for the next few
days.  Attoyac Bayou near Chireno (ATBT2) will continue to slowly
fall.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine  River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains steady above minor
flood criteria at this time based on reservoir releases upstream.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2) has crested and will fall below
criteria this week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other forecast locations are at or near seasonal flows.  Forecast
rainfall this weekend and next week could generate some runoff,
especially over the coastal basins and basins across Southeast Texas
where soils are saturated. Widespread flooding is not expected over the
next 5 days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$






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