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734
AGUS74 KFWR 201559
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1059 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 20 THROUGH OCTOBER 25

...THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level low is currently located over northeastern Sonora,
Mexico this Monday morning. Another upper level storm is located off
the Oregon coast. Both features will provide forcing for
precipitation over the western portion of the WGRFC area of
responsibility over the next few days. Onshore flow from the Gulf of
Mexico will also keep a chance for precipitation on the Lower Texas
Gulf Coast and Deep South Texas through this period.

Over the next 36 hours the more southerly upper level disturbance is
expected to produce showers and thunderstorms along the Rio Grande
from El Paso to Lake Amistad, and in the Trans Pecos. On Wednesday
and Thursday the northern trough is expected to overtake and absorb
the southern disturbance, and lead to a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Thursday
and Friday look mostly dry for the WGRFC area of responsibility as
an upper level ridge builds from the west.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the Rio Grande from El
Paso to Lake Amistad and for the Trans Pecos. MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 inch are forecast for Deep South Texas and for most of New
Mexico.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for portions of southern New Mexico and the Trans Pecos.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for southwestern
Colorado, northern New Mexico, and Deep South Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for northwestern Texas and for portions of the Trans
Pecos. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for eastern
New Mexico, North Texas, and the rest of the Trans Pecos.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (49%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. The forecasted rainfall is expected to
greatly alleviate drought concerns for the high category drought
areas in Central Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions.
Overnight rainfall above Candelaria (CDET2) caused a rapid rise to
flood stage. Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause
mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT


$$






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