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169
AGAK78 PACR 212343
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT FRI NOV 21 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA.

A FALL BREAKUP IS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER...
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

OVER THE PAST WEEK THE UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN
DOMINATED BY A RIDGE IN WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN ALASKA... WITH
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.  THIS HAS
BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO KODIAK ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA... AND BROUGHT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MAINLAND.  THESE CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED THE
FALL BREAKUP ON MUCH OF THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER... WHICH BEGAN LAST
WEEK... TO CONTINUE.  EVEN THOUGH SOME ICE JAMS ARE FORMING ON THE
RIVER... SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FROM THE ICE JAMS IS NOT EXPECTED AS
THE ICE IS RELATIVELY THIN.  TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO COOL THIS WEEKEND.

...SNOW DEPTH...

SNOW DEPTHS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LAST WEEK,  THE
DEEPEST REPORTED SNOWPACK IS CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS...
WITH 10 TO 15 INCHES REPORTED... WHILE 2-6 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
AROUND FAIRBANKS ITSELF.

...ICE THICKNESS...

ICE THICKNESS ARE MEASURED NEAR THE 1ST OF THE MONTH... AND SOME
LOCATIONS WERE NOT THICK ENOUGH ON NOVEMBER 1 FOR A MEASUREMENT TO
BE MADE SAFELY.  THE MEASUREMENTS THAT WERE REPORTED RANGE FROM 1 TO
10 INCHES IN THE TANANA BASIN... 5 INCHES AT LAKE MINCHUMINA... 4
INCHES AT AMBER LAKE IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY... AND 10 INCHES AT
COLVILLE VILLAGE ON THE COLVILLE RIVER.

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE STATE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE AKPEN... WITH NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED EVERY FRIDAY UNTIL BREAKUP
BEGINS IN THE SPRING.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

A GRAPHICAL SLIDE SHOW PRESENTATION OF HYDROMET ISSUES IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRESENT
$$

ACL




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