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879 FXUS64 KHGX 251551 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1051 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013 .UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TODAY`S FORECAST...THE BULK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHARP MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE NOTED AT 7H...WITH BEST 85H MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE CWA...WITH COMPOSITE RADAR DEFINITELY VERIFYING THESE FACTS. WEAKER UPPER HEIGHTS AND MILD JET LEVEL DIFFULENCE OVER SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH MOUNTING SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGING EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT GOING INTO SUNDAY...PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF AFTER THIS MORNING`S EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL-LEADING-TO-FLOODING OVER EWX AND CRP CWA`S. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR 30 POPS OVER OUR FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA TODAY...NORTHERN COUNTY 20 POPS TOMORROW. MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNINGS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY...MEAN LOWER 70F MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BY NOON...MAXIMUM UPPER 80S. ALL AND ALL... A WARM AND HUMID HOLIDAY WEEKEND. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/ DISCUSSION... SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION... EXPECT THAT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. THE MODELS AND SURFACE ANALSYSES INDICATE THAT THE BEST DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL AFFECT KCLL AND KUTS THIS AFTERNOON. FELT THAT THE THUNDER CHANCES WERE MUCH LESS FROM KCXO TO THE COAST...HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS FOR KCXO AND THE HOUSTON METRO AIRPORTS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD. CONDIIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE VFR UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 09Z. 40 && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/ DISCUSSION... AT 08Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT LUFKIN TO COLUMBUS AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER EAST TEXAS FROM LUFKIN TO LAFAYETTE. SHRA/TSRA WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN AREA WITH STRONG 700 MB CONVERGENCE. 850 MB MOISTURE STILL LOOKS RATHER PLENTIFUL TODAY WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS BETWEEN 13-16C. THE BEST 850 CONVERGENCE IS OVER FAR WEST TEXAS. FCST SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY. CAPPING REMAINS WEAK AND PW VALUES SHOULD HOVER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES TODAY. THE HI-RES MODELS INITIALIZED POORLY THIS MORNING SO NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING A SPEED MAX ACROSS SE TX TODAY WITH SE TX LYING IN A LFQ. 300 MB WINDS ALSO SHOW A SPLIT OVER EAST TEXAS. FEEL THERE ARE ENOUGH PARAMETERS IN PLACE TO WARRANT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS TODAY DESPITE THE BENIGN MASS FIELDS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE WEAKNESS AT 500 MB WILL BEGIN TO SCOOT EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR. FEEL MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT WILL MENTION ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NORTH IN CASE THE CIRCULATION MOVES SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MON-TUE WITH WARM AND DRIER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL PUSH EAST ON WED/THU. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AND SE TX LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON WED/THU BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO SE TX KEEPING THE AREA WARM AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 43 && MARINE... THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETTER OVER AND NEAR MATAGORDA BAY TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. DO EXPECT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE...THAT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO CAUTION LEVELS BY TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 71 89 70 89 / 30 30 20 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 88 72 88 71 88 / 20 20 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 81 76 84 74 85 / 20 20 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...31/45