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146
FXUS64 KHGX 190309
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
909 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON WITH MORE ELEVATED PRECIP BEGINNING
TO LIFT UP OVER THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD (IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
ARE) RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN
EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR EL
PASO MOVES NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER JET
STRETCHING FROM BAJA TO SAT TO SHV TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
SETX SHOULD ENTER INTO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT ATTM IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE INTENSE
RAIN RATES BUT A GOOD SOAKING NONETHELESS. IN ADDITION AS THE
PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE MOISTENS UP.

45
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES FOR AREA TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS CENTERING AROUND
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR CEILINGS...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM
FOG...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND POTENTIALLY ISOLATED TSRA AT
SITES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 4 PM REVEALED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL SURFACE FEATURES WITH A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NEAR VICTORIA TO FREEPORT TO SOUTH OF GALVESTON. RADAR IMAGERY AS
OF 545 PM SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRAPED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FAR WEST TEXAS...AND AS THIS TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWERING CEILINGS WILL LIKELY NEED
ADJUSTMENTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANY
MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY.. CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR THE TERMINALS AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND TSRA CHANCES LOOKING TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT AWAY
FROM THE COAST...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST...AND
ALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
TERMINALS.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO W & CNTL PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING OF SHRA & ISO TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST
AND OFF TO OUR WEST LATER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS
SE TX OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS FRI. WARM SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR OF JUST OFF THE COAST AND OVERALL DYNAMICS TO POINT TO
A LOW THREAT OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE COAST OR OFFSHORE...BUT PRIMARY
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MODERATE RAINFALL.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE AFTN ON FRI AND FRONT SHOULD THEN PUSH THRU IN ITS WAKE. SOME
QUESTION REGARDING IF/WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS WEEKEND. FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER STEEP LLVL
INVERSION. IF WE DON`T SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...BOTH HIGH & LOW
TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

SFC HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. 12Z NAM12
WAS BULLISH ON A COASTAL TROF AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF NEXT TROF THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE LATE SUNDAY.
NOTICED THE 18Z RUN HAS SINCE BACKED OFF THAT THINKING AND IS MORE
ALIGNED W/ THE DRIER GFS/ECMWF.

WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND MID SECTION TROF DEEPENS EARLY IN THE
WEEK SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU
THE AREA ON TUE. AGAIN...WITH LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WE`D
ANTICIPATE A MAINLY DRY FROPA. COOLER AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT - CONTINUING INTO XMAS EVE.

PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO WED/THUR AND
EXPECT A RAPID RETURN AND STRENGTHENING OF ONSHORE FLOW DURING ON
XMAS DAY. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS. POSSIBLY SHORTS WX? IT`S A MUCH
BETTER BET THAN A WHITE XMAS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. 47

MARINE...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO OR
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
PUSHING THE FRONT INLAND AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES UP
THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST ONCE AGAIN.

IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE GULF WERE REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
OFF THE MID AND SOUTH TEXAS COASTS. IF THIS AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY
FAR ENOUGH NORTH...AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WINDS OVER THE GULF
WATERS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED TODAY. THE MODELS DO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS A BIT ON FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK OFF
THE COAST...AND CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER
THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE TO ABOVE CAUTION CRITERIA
UNTIL TUESDAY.  40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  55  46  55  44 /  90  80  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              56  60  48  56  45 /  90  80  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  65  51  55  51 /  80  80  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45




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