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061
FXUS64 KHGX 231738
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1238 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z DISCUSSION

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY AM FOG HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH CU FIELD NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION AND THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR CIGS FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE AS MODELS CAN TEND TO
OVERDO MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE REGION BUT BOTH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT. DECIDED AGAINST USING
TEMPO GROUPS FOR MOST SITES AS THERE WONT BE MUCH VARIANCE... ONCE
IFR CIGS DEVELOP THEY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. CIGS SHOULD
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA SUPPORTING A DECK OF BKN/SCT
CLOUDS AFTER THE DENSE FOG DISSIPATED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THEN SCATTER OUT AREAWIDE
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH. SHOULD
BE A PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TONIGHT AND MAY SEE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOWER CIGS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS WELL. UPDATED ZFP OUT SHORTLY FOR CURRENT
WINDS AND SKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S TODAY
WITHOUT ANY DIFFICULTY IN A DEEP WELL MIXED BL UP THROUGH 4.5-5.5KFT.

45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT SHORTLY PAST SUNRISE THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADIATIVE FOG FORMATION SINCE MIDNIGHT. SOUTHERN
TIER COUNTY DENSE FOG PRIMARILY WEST OF I-45 AND SOUTH OF I-10
HAS LOWERED VISIBILITIES TO A 1/4 MILE OR LESS. ONCE THE FOG
BREAKS...THE FORECAST IS FOR ANOTHER WARM AND PARTIALLY CLOUDY
DAY. A MORE MODEST SOUTHERLY WIND DAY THAT WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES
ON THE UP AND UP...MAKING THIS AFTERNOON FEEL A BIT MORE OF WHAT
WE`RE USED TO AROUND HERE IN LATE APRIL...WARM AND A TOUCH MORE
MUGGY.

HIGHER LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL BE MORE REALIZED IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE RETURN OF DENSE RADIATIVE FOG. THE THREAT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING FOG WILL BE MINIMIZED BY A STRONGER ONSHORE WIND AS LOWERING
PRESSURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE KEEP THE ONSHORE GRADIENT JUST TIGHT
ENOUGH IN GENERATING A 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WIND. THIS SURFACE
BREEZE...AND A MODELED 95H 25-30 KT OFF-THE-SURFACE WIND FIELD...
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG
RETURNS FRIDAY MORNING AS MID-LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN. RESIDENT
RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THUR NITE/FRI
MORN WITH A WEAKENED WIND FIELD FROM A PASSING SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SET THE SCENE FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT. THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED DISCRETE
THUNDERSTORM CELL OR TWO BRUSHING THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SPC HAS DAY 2 OUTLOOKED IN GENERAL
TO COMMUNICATE THIS SLIGHT STORM THREAT. GENERAL MENTION AS ANY
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DOING SO
WITHIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID (UN-CAPPED) LATE DAY AIR MASS.

THE ENSEMBLE IS STILL MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF AN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST 5H TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL BE ENTERING THE WESTERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG A POTENTIAL PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING A MAIN COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL DEPENDENT
UPON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT/SHARPNESS OF 5H TROUGH AXIS AS TO
WHETHER REGION WILL EXPERIENCE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY-MID MONDAY
ACTIVE WEATHER. INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
AS RECENT RUNS ARE IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT OF INTRODUCING MORE FAR
INTERIOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. 31

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG...SOME DENSE...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECT TRANSITIONS TO VFR TERRITORY GOING
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. REPEAT TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS &
PATCHY FOG. VISBYS MIGHT BE KEPT IN CHECK BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
BUT STILL ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS. 47

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SPEEDS & SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WILL PROBABLY NEED CAUTION/ADVSY
FLAGS BY SAT NIGHT. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  86  65  85  66 /  20  20  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  84  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  76  68  79  69 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...38




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