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175
FNUS73 KSGF 171512
FWSSGF

SPOT FORECAST FOR KETCHUM HOLLOW...MO DEPT NATURAL RESOURCES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1012 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON APRIL 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVES THROUGH THE OZARKS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57 AT IGNITION...MAX 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 41 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 3 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
                    AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE MORNING.
WIND SHIFT..........SE AT NOON SHIFTING TO THE NE LATE.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 12 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....        SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....        RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............57  60  62  63  64  64
RH..............50  45  43  41  41  43
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  E   E   NE
20 FT WIND SPD..2   2   2   2   3   4
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.7 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
TRANSP WIND SPD.8   8   7   7   6   5
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  20  20  20  20
HAINES INDEX....2   2   2   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 87 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....N/A.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............63     58     52     48     47     44
RH..............45     56     65     75     80     84
20 FT WIND......NE 5   NE 5   NE 3   NE 3   NE 3   NE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.              5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....4300   2600   600    300    400    300
TRANSPORT WIND..E 3    E 3    E 5    SE 6   SE 6   E 3
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     20     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      4

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 38 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
WIND SHIFT..........NE EARLY SHIFTING TO THE SE LATE.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 2
                    TO 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............42     45     57     63     67     70
RH..............90     82     59     47     41     38
20 FT WIND......NE 2   E 2    SE 2   SE 3   SE 5   SE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5             10
MIX HGT (FT)....200    500    1500   3500   5200   5900
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 2   W 2    S 2    SE 3   SE 3   SE 5
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 65 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE.
CHANCE OF PRECIP....0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............69     64     59     55     53     50     47     53     62     69     71     74
RH..............41     49     59     70     76     83     90     76     60     48     46     43
20 FT WIND......SE 4   SE 4   SE 5   SE 4   SE 4   S 4    SE 4   SE 5   S 6    S 6    S 6    S 7
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5             5      5      5      5      10     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....5700   4100   1900   600    200    300    200    600    1800   3600   4800   5000
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 5   SE 7   S 9    S 12   S 14   S 15   S 15   S 15   S 13   S 12   S 12   S 13
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3      3      3      3      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...HATCH
REQUESTED BY...TIM SMITH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140417.KETCH.02/SGF









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