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094
FNUS75 KRIW 190941
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR COTTONWOOD II...USFS; BRIDGER-TETON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
341 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON OCTOBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...RH SLIGHTLY DRIER. A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...CUMULUS INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER...RH LITTLE IF ANY TREND.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION
ARE GOOD BUT CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN/SNOW REMAIN SLIM. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT...BECOMING WEST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-61.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-23 PERCENT.

EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...GUSTS NEAR 15 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000-5000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO BORDERLINE FAIR (11500-40000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-35.
MAX HUMIDITY........64-67 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2500-33700 KNOT-FT).

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-24 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH 5-9 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON
                    WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100-6100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (74100
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BECOMING WEST
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...RICK LANCASTER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141019.COTTO.01/RIW








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