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127
FNUS75 KPUB 251256
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHAVANO RX...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
656 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BURN AREA THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.  THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  THERE IS ALSO A LOW
PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IN ONE
HAPPENING AT THIS TIME IS LOW.  SMOKE DISPERSALS WILL BE VERY GOOD
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH BY 1400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1300...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL
                    1700...THEN GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35F.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST 3 TO 8 MPH BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
                    10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH BY 2300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    25 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 35 MPH AFTER 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 33 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. VERY GOOD AFTER 1000.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

$$
FORECASTER...MOZLEY
REQUESTED BY...JUSTIN DEFOREST
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141025.SHAVA.01/PUB




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