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165
FNUS74 KOUN 181553 AAA
FWSOUN

SPOT FORECAST FOR STUDY PLOTS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE EAST WILL IMPACT
THE BURN SITE AROUND NOON. EXPECT ESE WINDS BEHIND IT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND DECREASE IN SPEED. ALSO INCLUDED A VERY
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5
                    TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8100-8900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1100-50600 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (66200-116100 KNOT-FT)
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............81  81  83  85  86  88  88  87
RH..............54  58  51  46  43  42  42  45
20 FT WIND DIR..SSE ESE SE SSE SSE   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..8   17  14  13  11  10   9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.    23  22  20  16  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.9 5.7 7.3 8.3 8.8 8.9 8.7 8.1
MIX HGT (KM)....1.2 1.7 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  S   S   S   S   SE  SE  S
TRANSP WIND SPD.14  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
TRANS SPD (M/S).6   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
VRATE KTFT/1000.66  81  95  108 115 116 114 106

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500-7100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (20000-62700 KNOT-FT)
                    DECREASING TO POOR TO POOR (0-10500 KNOT-FT)
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............82     76     73     71     70     68
RH..............53     66     73     81     82     86
20 FT WIND......S 10   S 9    S 8    S 8    S 7    S 7
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     15     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....7100   3800   1400   700    400    200
MIX HGT (M).....2160   1160   430    210    120    60
TRANSPORT WIND..S 15   S 20   S 20   SW 13  S 8    S 5
TRAN WIND (M/S).S 7    S 9    S 9    SW 6   S 4    S 2
VRATE KTFT/1000.63     42     20     3      0      0

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900-6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (2000-41900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (110700-111500 KNOT-FT).

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............67     70     76     81     84     84
RH..............93     89     73     60     52     52
20 FT WIND......S 7    S 10   S 14   S 14   S 16   S 16
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     20     20     25     25
MIX HGT (FT)....300    800    2500   4900   6500   6600
MIX HGT (M).....90     240    760    1490   1980   2010
TRANSPORT WIND..S 5    S 8    S 16   S 25   S 25   S 24
TRAN WIND (M/S).S 2    S 4    S 7    S 11   S 11   S 11
VRATE KTFT/1000.2      26     58     86     102    111

$$
FORECASTER...BARNES
REQUESTED BY...MATTHEW LAMB
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140918.STUDY.01/OUN




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