weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Suppression Forecast
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  
[Printable]
399
FNUS72 KILM 301024
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR HOLLY SHELTER...NCWRC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
624 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0645 EDT ON JULY 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE CANADIAN AIRMASS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WILL
SLOWLY MODIFY TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR MOISTURE AND INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO RETURN
BY FRIDAY...AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A COASTAL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINA COASTS...WILL LIKELY
PUSH TOWARD THE COAST...MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...LOW.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST 5 TO
                    10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-5200 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING EAST 5
                    TO 13 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (919-54624 MPH-FT).

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............27     21     23     24     26     26
WEATHER COV.........PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE........FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................69     72     77     82     84     84
RH..................96     88     72     58     54     54
20 FT WIND..........NE 2   N 2    NE 4   E 5    E 7    E 8
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5      10     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........200    400    2100   4000   5200   4300
TRANSPORT WIND......NE 6   N 3    E 8    E 9    E 5    E 13
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...1      1      17     37     26     55

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-400 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 13 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    LIGHT...THEN BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT...BECOMING EAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH LATE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (919-29324 MPH-FT).

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............27     27     31     35     39     43
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................81     77     75     73     72     71
RH..................60     71     78     83     86     88
20 FT WIND..........E 6    E 4    E 2    E 2    E 2    E 3
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........2600   800    300    200    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......E 12   E 13   E 6    E 6    E 3    E 5
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...29     10     2      1      1      1

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4100-4500 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 14 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH
                    LATE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1839-58419 MPH-FT)...INCREASING
                    TO GOOD (60374 MPH-FT) LATE.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............47     51     48     54     61     57
WEATHER COV.........                            S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                            S CHC  S CHC
TEMP................70     72     79     83     84     84
RH..................89     82     64     54     53     54
20 FT WIND..........E 4    E 5    E 5    E 6    E 6    E 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      10     10     10     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........400    900    2400   3700   4300   4500
TRANSPORT WIND......NE 5   E 9    E 9    E 12   E 14   E 13
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...2      9      22     43     58     57

$$
FORECASTER...HOEHLER
REQUESTED BY...CASEY PHILLIPS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140730.HOLLY.01/ILM







U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE