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643
FNUS74 KEPZ 181544
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR LOWER ELK RX...BIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
844 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0850 MST ON DECEMBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MAINLY JUST
ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
BY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH ONCE IT WARMS UP LATE THIS MORNING
TO GET INTO THE FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL CATEGORY. POOR DISPERSAL EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY WITH LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) EARLY AFTERNOON.
                    ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-46.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST-SOUTHWEST 4 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600-6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 KNOTS.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (45000 KT-FEET).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 3 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900-1400 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 4 KNOTS.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-48.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200-5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 8 KNOTS.
VENT RATE...........POOR (35000KT-FEET).

$$
FORECASTER...GRZYWACZ
REQUESTED BY...B LA HARRINGTON
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141218.LOWER.01/EPZ







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