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996
FNUS73 KEAX 211331
FWSEAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR FALL 2014 SERICEA RESEARCH...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
831 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 CDT ON OCTOBER 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND AS
THE WIND PICKS UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. THUS BETWEEN THE
LIGHT WIND AND INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN LOW.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65 AT IGNITION...MAX 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS EAST AT 2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 100-1800 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 3400 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3400-5000 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1500-3000 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 1 TO 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 3 TO 5
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........0      1      0      0
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............61     70     72     71
RH..............62     47     44     47
20 FT WIND......NE 1   E 2    E 3    E 5
20 FT WIND GUST.              5
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 86 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........0      0      0      0      8      17
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............65     59     55     52     50     48
RH..............56     64     72     78     79     84
20 FT WIND......E 5    E 5    E 5    E 6    E 5    E 5
20 FT WIND GUST.
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5      3

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 51 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3300 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........24     29     35     40     44     49
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............48     53     61     69     73     71
RH..............85     78     65     57     51     55
20 FT WIND......E 6    SE 8   SE 8   SE 8   SE 9   SE 9
20 FT WIND GUST.       10     10     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2      2      2      3

$$
FORECASTER...JULY
REQUESTED BY...DEON STEINLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141021.FALL2.01/EAX







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