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743
FNUS71 KCTP 201124
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR F-01 RX...PA NATIONAL GUARD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
624 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EST ON NOVEMBER 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...USHERING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WEST WINDS...AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
A 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...BRINGING DIMINISHING WINDS EVERYWHERE AND CAUSING THE SNOW
SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 16 TO
                    20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4000-5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 21 TO
                    28 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)          7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............60  47  40  36  32  27  27  29  31  33  36
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................28  28  29  31  31  32  33  33  32  31  31
RH..................67  66  62  57  54  51  49  48  47  46  47
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......5   7   13  18  20  20  18  18  17  16  16
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  20  25  35  35  30  30  30  30  30
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 1.7 3.4 4.9 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.7 4.3 4.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   13  22  28  28  25  22  21  21  21  22
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 20.
MAX HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 15 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 23 TO 31 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............37  37  37  37  37  37  37  37  37  37  37  37
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................30  29  28  27  26  25  25  24  23  23  22  22
RH..................47  48  49  49  50  52  54  56  57  59  60  61
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......15  15  15  15  16  16  16  15  15  15  15  15
20 FT WIND GUST.....25  25  25  25  30  30  25  25  25  25  25  25
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.7 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....23  25  26  29  30  31  31  31  31  30  29  28
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.
MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-4700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4900-6500 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 28 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND
                    18 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............52  52  52  52  52  62  62  62  62  62  62  62
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................21  21  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  29  28  26
RH..................62  62  59  56  53  51  49  47  45  44  47  49
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......14  14  14  13  12  10  9   8   8   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....25  25  25  20  20  15  15  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.0 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.7 5.5 6.1 6.5 6.4 6.1 5.5 4.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....26  26  26  28  28  26  25  23  22  21  20  18
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/LAMBERT
REQUESTED BY...TIM HAYDT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141120.F01RX.01/CTP




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