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162
FNUS71 KCTP 020905
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR SGL 048 UNIT  2  4...PA GAME COMMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
505 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON OCTOBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AFFECT MOST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
STATE SHOULD ENSURE NO RAIN AND CLEARING SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.
                    AREAS OF FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-3000 FT
                    AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............81  76  73  64  46  36  32  23  18
WEATHER COV.........ARS
WEATHER TYPE........FOG
TSTM COV............
TEMP................55  56  56  59  62  65  65  66  66
RH..................92  93  94  84  75  68  65  64  63
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......9   12  13  12  9   8   7   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  15  15      10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.0 2.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....5   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-900 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 8 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 12 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............16  12  9   16  29  42  55  68  75  76  79  82
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................65  63  61  61  57  56  55  55  55  54  54  54
RH..................66  71  77  78  91  98  99  100 100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......9   10  12  13  13  13  14  14  13  14  14  14
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.2 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   6   6   3   2   1   5   8   12  12  12  10
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1700...THEN 16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3400-4300 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 18 MPH...INCREASING TO 21 TO 24 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............85  88  90  89  89  89  88  88  88  90  96  99
WEATHER COV.........                                SCH CHC LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........                                RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                            CHC
TEMP................54  54  54  55  57  58  60  63  64  65  65  64
RH..................100 100 100 100 98  94  89  84  82  80  80  82
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......14  14  15  16  16  17  18  18  20  18  18  18
20 FT WIND GUST.....20  20  20  20  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.6 3.4 4.1 4.3 4.2 3.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  10  12  13  14  16  18  21  22  23  24  24
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   4   5
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...FITZGERALD
REQUESTED BY...BRENT MCNEAL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141002.SGL04.01/CTP




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