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432
FNUS71 KCTP 241101
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST HICKS RX FIRE...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
701 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER. THE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER...COMBINED WITH DRY FINE
FUELS...WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MIN HUMIDITY........19 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4900-5100 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 12 TO
                    14 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............34  33  31  29  27  27  29  34  38
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................36  41  45  48  51  53  54  55  54
RH..................58  44  34  30  26  23  21  20  19
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
20 FT WIND SPD......8   10  12  13  12  10  10  9   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  20  20  15  15  15  15  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.8 3.8 4.6 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....21  23  24  23  21  17  15  14  12
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32.
MAX HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
                    BECOMING EAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............43  48  50  53  57  62  67  72  74  74  73  73
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................54  52  51  47  43  39  37  36  35  34  33  33
RH..................20  22  26  31  37  44  49  53  56  60  64  65
20 FT WIND DIR......N   NW  NW  N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......7   6   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10      5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.6 4.1 3.4 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   N   N   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   7   6   5   5   5   5   6   7   9   10  13
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........6   6   6   6   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2700-2800 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 14 TO 23 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 25 TO
                    28 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............73  72  72  74  79  83  87  92  94  94  95  96
WEATHER COV.........                        CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................34  36  38  43  49  54  56  58  59  60  60  60
RH..................67  66  63  55  46  40  39  41  43  45  47  51
20 FT WIND DIR......E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......5   5   6   8   10  13  14  14  14  14  13  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  15  15  15  15  15  20  20  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.6 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  15  16  20  23  25  26  26  26  28  28  28
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP
REQUESTED BY...WADE KISLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140424.WESTH.01/CTP




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