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316
FNUS71 KCTP 211109
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR RNG 30   C-04 RX...PA ARMY NATIONAL GUARD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
709 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON APRIL 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
A GRADUALLY WEAKENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND SOUTH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH TODAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL APPROACH 30 PERCENT IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL...THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO
                    8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2400-3100 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 1 TO 2 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 2 TO 8 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............23  23  23  24  24  24  24  24  24  25
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................40  45  50  55  58  60  62  64  65  66
RH..................71  60  50  42  40  38  37  35  34  33
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......1   2   2   3   3   5   6   6   7   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....        5   5   5           10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.9 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NE  E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....1   1   2   3   5   5   6   7   8   8
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 100-200 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............25  25  32  32  32  47  47  47  76  76  76  82
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................64  61  58  56  55  53  52  51  49  49  48  47
RH..................38  44  50  54  59  65  67  70  72  76  79  83
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......7   6   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10          5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....8   7   6   5   3   3   3   5   5   5   6   6
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 8 TO
                    13 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1000...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2500-3600 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 20
                    TO 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............82  82  90  90  90  90  90  90  87  87  87  87
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................48  49  50  54  57  61  62  63  64  64  64  64
RH..................82  82  81  74  68  62  62  62  62  60  59  57
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   5   6   7   8   9   10  10  12  13
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5       10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   6   6   7   9   12  15  20  23  24  23  23
LAL.................1   1   1   2   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/RXR
REQUESTED BY...TIM HAYDT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140421.RNG30.01/CTP




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