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289
FNUS75 KBOU 241701
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR GAYNOR LAKE RX...BOULDER COUNTY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1100 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 MDT ON APRIL 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOCALIZED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BOULDER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THIS SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE DENVER AREA AROUND 2 PM WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH DECENT SMOKE DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST. LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE MORNING WILL AGAIN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LOW HUMIDITY. DECENT
SMOKE DISPERSION WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD CREATE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. A SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........16%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7800-8800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1300. VERY GOOD AFTER 1600.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL 0100...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(40-50%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........53%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........15%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SOUTHEAST 8-9 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 13400-13800 FT
                    AGL AFTER 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1500.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...COOLER...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 12-18 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 11-21 MPH.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR GAYNOR LAKE RX.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  10KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

04/24-10 24  0  0 55 25 SSW  6  6 3 1  NW 32  5288 WNW  9 43643  F
04/24-11 34  0  0 58 22   S  6  6 2 1 WNW 31  6111   W  9 50197  F
04/24-12 44  0  0 61 20 SSE  6  6 2 1 WNW 30  6934   W  9 56750  F
04/24-13 47  0  0 64 18   S  7  7 2 1 WNW 31  7548   W 10 68100   G
04/24-14 49  0  0 66 17   S  7  7 2 1 WNW 32  8162   W 12 79450   G
04/24-15 52  0  0 67 16   S  7  7 2 1 WNW 32  8777   W 12 90800   G
04/24-16 55  0  0 67 17   S  7  7 2 1 WNW 35  8845   W 14104520    V
04/24-17 57  0  0 66 18 SSW  7  7 3 1 WNW 36  8914   W 15118239    V
04/24-18 60  0  0 64 20  SW  7  7 3 1   W 37  8983   W 17131958    V
04/24-19 61  0  0 61 23  SW  6  6 3 1 WNW 35  6714   W 17 98685   G
04/24-20 61  0  0 57 27  SW  6  6 3 1 WNW 32  4446 WSW 17 65412   G
04/24-21 62  0  0 54 31 WSW  5  5 3 1 WNW 29  2177 WSW 17 32138 P
04/24-22 62  0  0 51 34 WSW  5  5 3 1 WNW 28  1804 WSW 16 25465 P
04/24-23 63  0  0 50 37 WSW  6  6 3 1 WNW 26  1430 WSW 15 18792 P
04/25-00 63  0  0 49 39 WSW  6  6 3 1 WNW 25  1057   W 13 12119 P
04/25-01 57  0  0 47 42 WSW  6  6 3 1 WNW 26   953   W 13 10356 P
04/25-02 51  0  0 45 46 WSW  6  6 3 1 WNW 28   850   W 12  8593 P
04/25-03 45  0  0 42 50 WSW  6  6 3 1 WNW 29   746   W 10  6830 P
04/25-04 39  0  0 41 53   W  6  6 3 1   W 31   748   W  9  5773 P
04/25-05 33  0  0 40 52   W  7  7 4 1   W 33   751   W  7  4716 P
04/25-06 34  0  0 42 51 WSW  6  6 4 1   W 36   753   W  6  3659 P
04/25-07 35  0  0 44 49 WSW  5  5 4 1   W 36  1412 WSW  6  8006 P
04/25-08 36  0  0 51 40 SSW  3  3 4 1   W 36  2070 SSW  7 12353 P
04/25-09 37  0  0 58 32 SSW  3  3 4 1   W 36  2729   S  7 16700 P
04/25-10 38  0  0 64 26   S  6  6 4 1   W 35  5104   S 10 55723  F
04/25-11 39  0  0 68 22  SE  8  8 4 1 WSW 33  7479   S 13 94746   G
04/25-12 40  0  0 71 19 ESE 10 16 4 1 WSW 32  9854   S 16133769    V
04/25-13 46  0  0 74 17 ESE 10 15 4 1 WSW 31 11159   S 16159918     E
04/25-14 52  0  0 76 16  SE  9  9 4 1  SW 31 12464 SSW 17186067     E
04/25-15 58  0  0 77 15 SSE  8  8 4 1  SW 30 13768 SSW 17212216     E
04/25-16 58  0  0 77 15   S  8  8 4 1  SW 29 13566 SSW 17198285     E
04/25-17 58  0  0 76 16 SSW  8  8 5 1  SW 28 13364  SW 16184353     E
04/25-18 58  0  0 74 17  SW  8  8 5 1  SW 25 13162  SW 15170422     E
04/25-19 53  0  0 70 19  SW  7  7 5 1  SW 29  9197 WSW 14117991    V
04/25-20 49  0  0 66 23 WSW  7  7 5 1  SW 31  5233   W 13 65560   G
04/25-21 44  0  0 61 28 WSW  6  6 5 1  SW 33  1269   W 12 13129 P
04/25-22 39  0  0 58 32 WSW  6  6 5 1  SW 35  1063   W 12 10461 P
04/25-23 35  0  0 56 35 WSW  5  5 4 1  SW 36   858   W 10  7792 P
04/26-00 30  0  0 54 38   W  5  5 4 1  SW 37   653 WSW  9  5123 P
04/26-01 31  0  0 52 41   W  5  5 4 1  SW 37   672 WSW  8  4730 P
04/26-02 34  0  0 50 44   W  5  5 4 1  SW 36   690 WSW  7  4338 P
04/26-03 37  0  0 48 47   W  6  6 4 1  SW 35   709 WSW  7  3945 P
04/26-04 39  0  0 46 50   W  6  6 4 1  SW 33   671 WSW  7  3807 P
04/26-05 42  0  0 45 51   W  7  7 4 1  SW 31   632   W  7  3669 P
04/26-06 43  1  0 46 49   W  7  7 4 1  SW 30   593   W  7  3531 P
04/26-07 43  1  0 50 43 WSW  7  7 4 1  SW 30  1092 WSW  7  6665 P
04/26-08 43  1  0 55 36  SW  7  7 4 1  SW 31  1591  SW  7  9800 P
04/26-09 43  1  0 61 30 SSW  7  7 4 1  SW 32  2090 SSW  7 12934 P
04/26-10 43  1  0 66 25   S  7  7 4 1  SW 33  5075 SSW  9 49587  F
04/26-11 43  1  0 69 23   S  8  8 3 1  SW 36  8060 SSW 10 86241   G
04/26-12 68 10  2 72 21 SSE  8  8 3 2  SW 37 11044 SSW 13122895    V
04/26-13 68 10  2 73 20   S  8  8 3 2  SW 33 12261 SSW 14153622     E
04/26-14 68 10  2 75 18   S  9 14 4 2 SSW 29 13477 SSW 15184348     E
04/26-15 68 10  2 75 18   S 10 16 4 2 SSW 25 14693   S 17215074     E
04/26-16 68 10  2 75 18 SSW 13 18 4 2 SSW 28 13937   S 20232736     E
04/26-17 68 10  2 73 19 SSW 15 22 4 2 SSW 31 13182   S 22250397     E
04/26-18 73 21  4 71 20 SSW 16 24 4 3   S 33 12427   S 25268059     E
04/26-19 73 21  4 67 24  SW 15 23 4 3   S 31  9264  SW 24197297     E
04/26-20 73 21  4 63 28   W 13 20 3 3   S 29  6100   W 23126535    V
04/26-21 73 21  4 60 33 WNW 12 17 3 3 SSE 26  2936 WNW 22 55773  F
04/26-22 73 21  4 56 39 WNW 12 17 3 3 SSE 26  3603 WNW 18 52339  F
04/26-23 73 21  4 53 45  NW 13 20 2 3 SSE 26  4270 WNW 14 48906  F
04/27-00 83 46 23 51 50 NNW 14 21 2 2 SSE 26  4937 WNW 10 45473  F
04/27-01 83 46 23 49 54 NNW 14 22 2 2 SSE 21  4477  NW 14 52433  F
04/27-02 83 46 23 48 56 NNW 15 22 2 2  SE 14  4017  NW 18 59392  F
04/27-03 83 46 23 46 60 NNW 15 23 2 2 ESE  8  3557  NW 22 66351   G
04/27-04 83 46 23 44 64 NNW 15 23 2 2   E 14  3096  NW 24 63670   G
04/27-05 83 46 23 43 66 NNW 16 23 2 2  NE 21  2636  NW 28 60988   G
04/27-06 88 49 25 43 65 NNW 16 24 2 2 NNE 26  2175  NW 31 58306  F

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
10KFT WIND  - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI
REQUESTED BY...PAUL OSTROY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140424.GAYNO.01/BOU




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