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774 AGUS74 KFWR 101659 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1045 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013 VALID DECEMBER 10 THROUGH DECEMBER 15 ...RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The WGRFC region remains cool and dry this morning. This trend along with some much warmer temperatures, should continue through this weekend. Some scattered showers were noted on radar this morning across Deep South Texas. Precipitation amounts were very light and did not cause any issues. Meanwhile, a closed low continues to develop off the southern California coast and will slowly drift into the great southwest starting Thursday. Shortwave disturbances ahead of this system will interact with Gulf moisture flowing into southern Texas as an upper level air flow draws moisture from the Pacific across northern Mexico into far west Texas. This system is modeled to bring precipitation into the Big Bend region moving northeast into central Texas Thursday evening. As the system eventually spreads out over the eastern half of Texas and along the coast, light to moderate totals of precipitation are expected. As this upper low becomes an open wave, the system will quickly move out of the area by Saturday. Another upper level disturbance is expected to move over the WGRFC area Saturday night/Sunday, however moisture will be very limited. No significant precipitation or flooding is expected through the weekend. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of the Big Bend and West Texas. For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of East Texas. The drought situation in Texas continues to improve with less than 6% of the state in extreme drought in some isolated areas. New Mexico is improving as well with only 4% of that state in extreme drought, however all of New Mexico still remains in some level of drought category. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Neches Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Flood wave at Neches (NCST2) continues to fall and should be below criteria later today. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... All other WGRFC area rivers are below bank full. No significant flooding is expected in the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought MCCANTS $$