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153 AGUS74 KFWR 281624 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1024 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015 VALID JANUARY 28 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2 ...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WGRFC AREA, RAIN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... Very warm temperatures and dry weather will continue across most of the region through tomorrow, with some temperatures reaching the mid 80s across the state. By late tomorrow, moisture will begin to increase across portions of Colorado and New Mexico, in advance of a Pacific storm system approaching from the west. The upper level storm system can be seen on the latest water vapor imagery, spinning off the California coast. By late tomorrow/early Friday, this system is forecast to move into California and dig southward over the Baja California. As this system slowly approaches from the west, showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop over Colorado and New Mexico and eventually become more widespread across most areas along and west of I-35. Average rainfall amounts of up to 1.00 inch could affect these areas from Friday-Sunday. By Saturday, rains will begin to spread across the remainder of the WGRFC region, mainly for areas along and east of I-35. Rainfall amounts of up to 1.00 inch are expected for North and Northeast Texas, while lesser amounts are expected for Central and Southeast Texas. This activity may cause some minor flooding and isolated moderate flooding in basins across Southeast Texas. This especially applies to locations that are currently experiencing minor flooding from last week`s rainfall event. By Sunday, a cold front is expected to push south across Texas, this will allow precipitation to quickly end across the region. Conditions will once again dry out temporarily, until the next system arrives the end of next week. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of southeastern New Mexico. For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of Colorado, New Mexico and West Texas. Mainly for all areas along and west of I-35. For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of North and Northeast Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC region. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, almost half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (41%), and 11% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Outside of east and southeast Texas, soils are generally dry. The current precipitation forecast the next five days will not be heavy enough to produce new or additional runoff. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Trinity Basin... ...Minor Flooding... The Trinity River at Bluff (MBFT2) will remain above criteria for the next few days. ...Neches Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Minor flooding continues on the Neches and Angelina rivers. Flooding near Diboll (DIBT2) and Lufkin (LUFT2) will continue for the next few days. Attoyac Bayou near Chireno (ATBT2) will continue to slowly fall. Pine Island near Sour Lake (SOLT2) should fall below criteria Wednesday. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains steady above minor flood criteria at this time based on reservoir releases upstream. ...Brazos Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... The Brazos River at Richmond (RMOT2) has crested and will fall below criteria this week. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... All other forecast locations are at or near seasonal flows. Forecast rainfall later this week could generate some runoff, especially over the coastal basins and basins across Southeast Texas where soils are saturated. Widespread flooding is not expected over the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org MCCANTS $$