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AGUS74 KFWR 141557
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1045 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

               VALID SEPTEMBER 14 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 19

     ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The tropical wave that brought significant precipitation to parts of
Deep South Texas and northern Mexico the past few days, has moved
inland over Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms are still occurring
over these areas, however activity is less widespread than on
yesterday. Moisture has spread over the Big Bend, which has allowed
some showers and thunderstorms to develop over much of the
Rio Grande Valley and portions of West Texas.

Precipitation is expected to continue throughout the day across Deep
South Texas, West Texas and northern Mexico. Amounts are forecast to
average 0.25 inch or less, with higher amounts expected over
northern Mexico. No significant impacts are expected with additional
rainfall. The tropical system that was churning over the Gulf of
Mexico on yesterday, has dissipated. However some of the moisture
associated with this system, may move over portions of the upper
Texas coast by mid week. Elsewhere across the WGRFC region, no
significant flooding is expected the next five days.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of
Deep South Texas and northern Mexico.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of the southeast Texas coast and the
Texas Panhandle.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of the southeast Texas coast and northwest
Texas

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of the southeast Texas coast.

Drought persists, but is slowly improving over Texas and
New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional
drought while less than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought.
Severe drought conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico
and 36% of Texas. No significant runoff is expected across Texas for
the next 5 days.  Depending on locally heavy rainfall patterns, some
runoff is possible across New Mexico and Deep South Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Heavy rainfall continued in the Brownsville area, but all of the
heavy rainfall remained outside of river basins along the coast.
Soil states are eleveated along the entire coast so flooding
and flash flooding will remain a threat into next week.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$






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