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475 AGUS74 KFWR 071731 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1130 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014 VALID MARCH 7 THROUGH MARCH 12 ...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE WGRFC AREA... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A weak ridge of high pressure covers much of Texas this morning. This is bringing most of the region dry weather at the moment. However, the outlook for this weekend is for a chance for precipitation. The next upper level disturbance is located over Utah this morning, and this low will enter the WGRFC region and continue to deepen as it moves southeast into Colorado and New Mexico tonight. This low should bring some snow to the higher elevations of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado this afternoon into Saturday. On Saturday this low will split, with one disturbance moving eastward across the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, with the other closing off over southeast Arizona. The Oklahoma disturbance will assist in generating shower activity over roughly the eastern half of Texas Saturday afternoon, with the rainfall becoming more limited to southeast Texas by noon Sunday. The second upper low will dig southward into northern Mexico Sunday, then move eastward toward south Texas on Monday. This low will cause the rainfall to increase over south Texas and along the coast as the system interacts with moisture from the Gulf. This slow moving system is expected to produce the most widespread precipitation from San Antonio through Corpus Christi. Then as this system moves along the southeast Texas coast on Tuesday it should trigger additional precipitation over southeast Texas and Louisiana on Tuesday. The low will finally exit the region by Tuesday evening and the rain will end. There will be a return to zonal flow and drier conditions as the system exits the area to the east Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Forecast models indicate the potential for additional precipitation over Colorado and northern New Mexico into the middle of next week beyond this 5-day forecast period from the next approaching storm. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over most of New Mexico, Colorado, and the northern Texas panhandle. For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast from north central Texas southward through central Texas into deep south Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over central Texas from near Seguin to near Gonzales TX. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over most of the remaining WGRFC area of responsibility. For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for much of south Texas. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.50 inches, are forecast over the middle Texas Gulf coast from near Goliad to Corpus Christi TX. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the southeast two thirds of Texas and most of Louisiana. For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the southeast quarter of Texas and Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over northern New Mexico, Colorado, and the eastern two thirds of Texas. Almost all of New Mexico and 91% of Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 9% of Texas and 23% of New Mexico are in extreme drought. The upper Rio Grande in south central Colorado is in the abnormally dry category. Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are on average at 64% full. This is well below the median average reservoir storage at this time of year, of about 80% full. There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full. Significant improvement in the drought is not expected in the short term for the WGRFC area due to the lack of expected widespread heavy rainfall. Forecast precipitation totals are favorable for minor runoff from central Texas to the middle Texas Gulf coast the next five days, but because of the dry soil moisture conditions the rainfall will not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff or river flooding. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Rainfall is forecast this weekend mainly over Southern Texas along the Gulf Coast. This area is currently experiencing a severe drought and would welcome a decent rainfall. Although minor rises may occur in area rivers, no significant flooding is forecast for the next 5 days. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org STORY $$