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AGUS74 KFWR 251539
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1039 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 25 THROUGH OCTOBER 30

...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS A CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A ridge of high pressure continues to move eastward from the desert
southwest. This strong dome of high pressure is centered over
southwest Texas this morning, and as a result the weather across the
WGRFC area has been dry the past 24 hours.  This high will move across
south Texas today and will flatten out and shift to the northern Gulf
of Mexico by late Sunday.  As a result, we will see little change in
the dry conditions through the weekend for the WGRFC area, with
unseasonably warm temperatures expected.

By Monday the ridge of high pressure will be centered over Florida.
This will allow an upper level trough, which is currently located off
the Oregon coast, to move east.  As the trough crosses the Rockies on
Sunday night and Monday morning it will begin to impact the western
portions of the WGRFC forecast area.  This system may generate some
precipitation over southern Colorado starting late Sunday as a cold
front pushes into Colorado and New Mexico Sunday evening. Then this
front is expected to move eastward into north Texas by Tuesday and
will pass very slowly into central and northeast Texas by Wednesday
morning.  This front may bring increased chances for rain to northern
and eastern Texas later Tuesday through Wednesday.  At this point,
heavy rainfall is not expected, and the larger amounts of
precipitation are forecast northeast of our region. The progress of
the system will be monitored and updates will be provided throughout
the next several days.

By Thursday morning a new ridge of high pressure is forecast to
develop along and west of the Rocky Mountains. This will result in
dry conditions again for the WGRFC area starting Thursday, and a
return to more seasonal temperatures.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over southwestern Colorado.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over the eastern third of Texas and northern
Louisiana.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. Since no significant rainfall is forecast
within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days, no runoff is
expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
WGRFC river forecast points are currently near bankfull conditions.
Rainfall forecasted over the next five days will not cause mainstem
river flooding in the WGRFC area.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$





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