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997 AGUS74 KFWR 141557 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1045 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014 VALID SEPTEMBER 14 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 19 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The tropical wave that brought significant precipitation to parts of Deep South Texas and northern Mexico the past few days, has moved inland over Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms are still occurring over these areas, however activity is less widespread than on yesterday. Moisture has spread over the Big Bend, which has allowed some showers and thunderstorms to develop over much of the Rio Grande Valley and portions of West Texas. Precipitation is expected to continue throughout the day across Deep South Texas, West Texas and northern Mexico. Amounts are forecast to average 0.25 inch or less, with higher amounts expected over northern Mexico. No significant impacts are expected with additional rainfall. The tropical system that was churning over the Gulf of Mexico on yesterday, has dissipated. However some of the moisture associated with this system, may move over portions of the upper Texas coast by mid week. Elsewhere across the WGRFC region, no significant flooding is expected the next five days. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of Deep South Texas and northern Mexico. For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of the southeast Texas coast and the Texas Panhandle. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of the southeast Texas coast and northwest Texas For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of the southeast Texas coast. Drought persists, but is slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico and 36% of Texas. No significant runoff is expected across Texas for the next 5 days. Depending on locally heavy rainfall patterns, some runoff is possible across New Mexico and Deep South Texas. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Heavy rainfall continued in the Brownsville area, but all of the heavy rainfall remained outside of river basins along the coast. Soil states are eleveated along the entire coast so flooding and flash flooding will remain a threat into next week. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org MCCANTS $$