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AGUS74 KFWR 301611
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1111 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

                   VALID JULY 30 THROUGH AUGUST 4

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are occurring across
most of Oklahoma and portions of North Texas. This activity is
associated with a lingering frontal boundary and upper level
disturbance, which is also expected to impact the remaining areas
of Texas tonight and tomorrow. Over the next several hours,
rainfall is expected to increase in intensity across Central and
Southern Oklahoma as the frontal boundary moves over this area
later this afternoon. Current rainfall rates are averaging 0.50 to
1.00 inch per hour. However, this activity is situated just north
of the forecast area, therefore it is not forecast to significantly
impact any of the river systems. Elsewhere, conditions across New
Mexico and Colorado will remain dry through this evening.

By tonight, the focus for heavy rainfall will shift towards the
Red River and areas toward the south, as an approaching upper level
disturbance moves southeastward over the forecast area. And by
tomorrow morning, another round of showers and thunderstorms is
possible as the cold front finally pushes across the area. Abundant
moisture is questionable at this time across portions of North
Texas. However some of the forecast models are indicating the
possibility of some additional significant rainfall affecting areas
across northeast Texas. As the cold front continues to move
southward, rainfall is expected to increase in coverage across most
of East and Southeast Texas through tomorrow. Moisture availability
as well as an increase in southerly flow will allow some of the
storms to produce heavy rainfall at times. We will continue to
monitor this activity over the next few days, however at this time
we are not expecting any significant flooding across any river
systems.

As the cold front finally makes it to the coast by Friday, drier and
milder air will begin to dominate most of the WGRFC area. Conditions
across Colorado and New Mexico will once again see the influences of
the Monsoon through next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 1.00 to 3.00 inches are forecast for portions of Central
Oklahoma. Lesser amount of an inch or less are forecast for areas
along the Red River and portions of North Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are
forecast for portions of the Northeast and East Texas.
Lesser amounts are forecast for areas across Colorado and
New Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are
forecast for portions of Colorado and New Mexico. Lesser amounts are
forecast for portions of Southeast Texas.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of Southeast and Southwest Texas.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and
33% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the
drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the
drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More
rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to
ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be
minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf
coast. Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Pecos Basin...
Monsoonal activity continues in eastern New Mexico with widespread
rains.  Locally heavy rains near Puerto de Luna caused enough
runoff to cause the Pecos at this location to crest slightly above
minor flood stage yesterday evening. The river has subsided and is
returning to seasonal flows. The rain is expected to continue
through Thursday into Saturday morning with heavier amounts
anticipated for Friday afternoon into Saturday.  This activity will
be closely monitored for any  additional heavy runoff episodes.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other WGRFC river forecast locations are flowing near or below
normal for this  time of year.  Storm activity is expected to
increase in north and east Texas as well as in the upper Rio Grande
valley near Albuquerque over the next few days. Minor flooding is
possible in various  areas that experience more intense rains.  At
this time no major flood activity is expected with this monsoonal
rainfall.  Conditions will be closely monitored.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$






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