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402 AGUS74 KFWR 011632 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1132 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014 VALID SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 6 ...COASTAL PRECIPITATION CALMS A BIT AS A STORM BREWS NEAR THE YUCATAN... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... The onshore flow causing the most of the coastal showers over the past few days has calmed a bit allowing a slight reprieve in the Gulf coast precipitation for Texas. There still should be some isolated storm development as the day progresses with the focus being more towards Louisiana than the Texas Gulf coast. These storms have left widespread 3-5 inches of rainfall over the past few days with isolated areas seeing closer to 8 inches. Most of this rainfall; however, occurred within 50 miles of the coast with very little extending inland. While the precipitation should be somewhat calmer today, model guidance suggests this activity to still continue over the next few days. However, it should be more isolated storms than widespread rainfall. The other area of interest is the tropical system emerging on the other side of the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. The primary reason that coastal precipitation does not appear to be ending soon is this system will continue the entrainment of moisture towards the coast. While not currently forecasted to make landfall over the United States, it will generate storm activity for south Texas especially near the coast at Brownsville. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 60% chance of reaching tropical storm criteria, but overall it will not have enough time over water to gain any significant strength. Just a rain producer for south Texas and for north Mexico. No significant flooding is expected at this time but WGRFC will continue to track the storm development. For the other 95% of the WGRFC area, it will remain dry aloft as a weak high pressure struggles to develop out west. This will keep most of the area in dry warm conditions for the forecast period. A storm off the western coast of Mexico may allow for moisture to stream into New Mexico and set up the monsoonal activity later in the week. Otherwise, warm and dry with no flooding expected. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought conditions are impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas. The monsoonal rains in New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas of the state. Some runoff can be expected along the immediate Texas Gulf coast the next 5 days, but minor or no runoff is anticipated elsewhere. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...WGRFC Basins... Rainfall during the past several days has increased soil moisture and river conditions to near or above seasonal normals in portions of southeastern Texas and along the Texas Gulf Coast. Elsewhere, soil conditions remain dry, and river conditions are generally below seasonal normal flows. No significant flooding is forecast to occur through the forecast period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org GIARDINO $$