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705
AGUS74 KFWR 201541
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1040 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

                   VALID APRIL 20 THROUGH APRIL 25

        ...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BY MID WEEK...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level storm system will "open up" as it ejects into the
Central Plains.  As this storm weakens, its influence on the
precipitation patterns will diminish.  The focus for showers and
thunderstorms will shift from North Central Texas to Northeast Texas
by Monday.

An upper level ridge will form in the wake of the exitting storm
system.  Precipitation chances will decrease for Tuesday and
Wednesday.   Rain chances will increase slightly by the end of the
week.  A strong Pacific storm will move into the Pacific Northwest
Tuesday and will cross the Northern Plains as the week progresses.
This storm system should help flatten the upper level ridge in place
over the WGRFC area.  With this set up, daytime heating should help
initiate the development of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
and evening starting Thursday.

With no large scale focus, widespread significant precipitation is
not expected.  The next, best chance for significant precipitation
is beyond the scope of this forecast.  A strong Pacific storm is
expected to move onto the California next weekend.  Depending on the
path and strength of this latter system, precipitation chances will
increase across the WGRFC area for the weekend.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for North Central Texas.
Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the remainder of Texas and for
Eastern New Mexico.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for Northeast Texas.  Lighter MAP amounts are expected
across the remainder of the eastern half of Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

The drought conditions have been deteriorating over the last several
weeks over most of the region.  Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of
Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 29% of
Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought.  Statewide, in
Texas, reservoirs are, on average, less than 65% full.  This is
below average for this time of year, with average being about 80%
full.  There is considerable variability across the state, with many
of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full.
Due to the dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall which is
forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to produce
significant runoff.  Mainstem river flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Amistad releases are elevating flows along the
mainstem from Amistad downstream to Falcon Lake.  No significant
impacts are expected, although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2)
is fluctuating above an action level for pumps and livestock in the
area.  The duration of Amistad releases is unknown at this time.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant flooding is expected from rainfall forecast in the
next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER


$$






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