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881
AGUS74 KFWR 201712
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

                VALID DECEMBER 20 THROUGH DECEMBER 25

...PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE WGRFC
AREA...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough is beginning to develop over southwestern New
Mexico.  This system is expected to deepen over Texas Sunday into
Monday.

Another upper level trough is forecast to begin developing
late Monday over the intermountain west.  This system is expected to
deepen as it moves eastward across the WGRFC area Tuesday and
Wednesday.  With this system, precipitation is possible over New
Mexico and across north and central Texas.  By Thursday, this
upper level system is expected to move east of the WGRFC area.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches
are possible in the headwater region of the upper Rio Grande River
Basin.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches
are possible in the headwater region of the upper Rio Grande River
Basin.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (44%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of
the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%) and 4% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Soils are generally dry
enough such that forecast rainfall will generate mostly minor runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Minor rises along some of the side channels and along the Tres Palacios
have either crested or are near crest at this time. The river should
return to base flow before the next rain event.

...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Pine Island Bayou and other coastal tributaries have seen rises
overnight as the rain shifts off to the east. No flooding is expected
at this time, but recovery to baseflow will take some time since these
streams tend to linger at higher levels after rain events.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
With the rain shifting to the east and several days before the next
storm system moves into the region, there should be enough time for the
smaller river systems that saw small rises to recover back to base flow
before more rainfall arrives.  No flooding is expected
through the forecast period.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

SHULTZ


$$






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