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823
AGUS74 KFWR 231622
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1121 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

                    VALID JULY 23 THROUGH JULY 28

...WHILE THE MONSOON CONTINUES OVER THE WEST, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF TEXAS UNTIL NEXT MONDAY...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level high pressure system is centered over eastern Colorado
this morning.  This feature will remain a dominant factor in our
weather pattern throughout the rest of the week into the weekend.  The
ridge will settle in over the Texas/New Mexico border region the rest
of this week, then will shift west to just east of the four corners
region by Monday morning.  This will keep temperatures warm and will
retard rainfall over most of the WGRFC forecast area.

The forecast is for generally rain-free conditions for Texas, with the
exception of continued isolated thunderstorms along and near the Gulf
coast in southeast Texas fed by off-shore breezes.  Additionally,
an upper air disturbance is located near New Orleans this morning.
This easterly wave has become nearly stationary but is close enough
to produce a good chance for rain over southeast Texas and
southern Louisiana through this evening.  This wave will weaken as it
approaches the ridge over Texas on Thursday, but isolated
thunderstorms will persist near the coast and possibly over east Texas
into Thursday.  And, a cold frontal boundary is moving southeastward
across the Ohio valley. A few thunderstorms on the tail end of this
front could develop as far west as northeast and east central Texas
this afternoon and tonight into Thursday. After Thursday, little or no
rain is forecast over Texas into Monday morning.

Farther west, a monsoonal plume of moisture moving up from the
south will feed storm activity each afternoon and evening for the
next 5 days.  Areas of the middle Rio Grande valley and western New
Mexico should be affected today.  This activity should continue nearly
every afternoon the next 5 days, providing some potential for
convective activity as rainfall associated with the monsoon helps to
alleviate some of the adverse impacts of the persistent drought that
has plagued the region.  The best chances for rain in this region
appears to be Friday and again Sunday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast over southwest New Mexico, as
well as over parts of southeast Texas, extreme northeastern Texas and
southeastern Oklahoma.  Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over
southern Colorado, the northwestern half of New Mexico, the middle and
upper Texas Gulf coastal areas, and southern Louisiana.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande around the
Taos NM area including the New Mexico/Colorado border region.  Lighter
amounts of MAP are forecast over southern Colorado, the northern third
of New Mexico, over and near the Texas Gulf coastal areas into
east Texas, and Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande including
southwest Colorado and northern New Mexico.  Lighter amounts of MAP
are forecast over a good part of Colorado and northern New
Mexico.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast in the headwaters of the upper Rio Grande including
southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.  Lighter amounts of MAP
are forecast over most of Colorado, much of New Mexico, the Texas
panhandle, and southern Louisiana.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 5% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and
37% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the
drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the
drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More
rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to
ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be
minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf
coast.  Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Angelina River near Lufkin (LUFT2) is forecast to remain around
flood stage for the next 12 to 24 hours.  River responses elsewhere
across the Neches River Basin are below forecast criteria levels.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other WGRFC river forecast locations are below bankfull level.
Significant rainfall is not forecast through the end of the forecast
period.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$





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