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248 AGUS74 KFWR 211547 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1046 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014 VALID OCTOBER 21 THROUGH OCTOBER 26 ...THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDWEEK... ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... An upper level ridge will move slowly east now through Wednesday as a shortwave trough approaches from the desert southwest. Another upper level storm is located off the Oregon coast. Both features will provide energy to increase chances of precipitation over the western portion of the WGRFC area of responsibility over the next couple of days. Onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico will also sustain a chance for precipitation along the lower Texas Gulf Coast and Deep South Texas through this period. Over the next 36 hours the more southerly upper level disturbance is expected to produce showers and thunderstorms along the Rio Grande from El Paso to Lake Amistad, and in the Trans Pecos. On Wednesday and Thursday the northern trough is expected to overtake and absorb the southern disturbance, and lead to a chance for showers and thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Thursday and Friday look mostly dry for the WGRFC area of responsibility as an upper level ridge builds from the west. In a longer term, the upper level system now in the Oregon area will generate a weak cold front to pass through the WGRFC area starting next Monday evening. While the models are not in strong agreement yet about this system, it is worth noting that this system could result in a significant upslope snow event for northern and central New Mexico. The progress of the system will be monitored and updates provided throughout the forecast period. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 are forecast for an area from the Big Bend National Park northwest into New Mexico above Red Bluff Dam near Carlsbad and west to El Paso. For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are forecast for an area between Midland and Lubbock with the heavier amounts south of Lubbock. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over parts of New Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about half the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme to exceptional drought. No significant rainfall is expected for most areas within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Rio Grande Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Localized rainfall near Candelera is causing a brief rise into action stage as water filters through the area. This water should move out of flood category later today and may push Presidio (PIOT2) into action stage in the next day or so. Additional localized rainfall could exacerbate the flooding but no significant flooding is expected. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions. Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov National Precipitation Analysis: http://water.weather.gov/precip/ The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: http://www.waterdatafortexas.org CAZIER $$