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AGUS74 KFWR 271629
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1129 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

                 VALID AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 1

...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ALONG AND NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST
WHILE THE MONSOON ACTIVITY DECREASES OVER NEW MEXICO...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A weak tropical low is currently located off the coast of Texas south
of Freeport this morning.  This system will continue to track
southwestward today and Thursday and will bring a surge of deep
tropical moisture over most of the Texas Gulf coast.  Unsettled
weather will be prevalent, with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms likely each day into at least Friday.  We will continue
to monitor the progress of this low.

Elsewhere, the primary weather maker this forecast period will be
from an upper level low pressure system currently over Utah.  The
trough which trails this low will move over New Mexico and Colorado on
Thursday, initially affecting the Texas panhandle and the western
parts of north Texas Thursday afternoon and night with showers and
thunderstorms.  Then the trough will move east into Oklahoma and
north Texas and best chances of rain will be Friday over north
Texas. This trough will then bring additional rainfall to primarily
the upper Texas Gulf coastal region Friday night into Saturday before
the trough pushes east of the forecast area on Sunday.  The rainfall
should decrease over Texas on Sunday night and Monday morning.

In New Mexico, showers and thunderstorms will become widespread
today and tonight, then drier air will move over the state which will
bring an end to the monsoonal rainfall from Thursday and
thereafter.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 of an inch are forecast for points in southern New
Mexico just northeast of El Paso, as well as along the middle and
upper Texas Gulf coast.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch
are forecast for most of New Mexico and Colorado, as well as
along and inland from the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch
are forecast for the northwestern portions of Texas, with the heaviest
amounts in an area between Amarillo and Lubbock.  Another area with
MAP amounts from 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for an area
along the Texas coast from Brownsville to Beaumont.  MAP amounts of
less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for eastern New Mexico, most
of Colorado, most of Texas and Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for eastern Texas into southwest Louisiana, deep
south Texas, the western parts of north Texas, and along the Red
River.   MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for
most of Texas and Louisiana.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for southeastern Texas into Louisiana, with heavier
amounts east of the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast for the eastern half of Texas and Louisiana.

Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico.  Statewide, New
Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas
remains in exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are
impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in
New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas
of the state.  Some runoff can be expected along the immediate Texas
Gulf coast the next 5 days, but minor or no runoff is anticipated
elsewhere.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC area remain near or below seasonal
flows.  No flooding is forecast to occur at this time.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$





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