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955
FNUS53 KDTX 171940
FWFDTX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
331 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...PERHAPS MISSING
MUCH OF BAY AND MIDLAND COUNTIES...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE
WEATHER WILL THEN DRY OUT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 50S FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAWS WARMER
AIR UP INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

MIZ047-048-053-060-061-181400-
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND-BAY CITY-SAGINAW-OWOSSO-FLINT
331 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AFTER 10 PM UNTIL 11 PM...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL 2 AM...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY. POP...70 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......5-9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST UP
                    TO 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1290-1490 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING WEST LATE.
VENTILATION INDEX...`POOR` (40).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.10 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 10 AM...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 11 AM...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1 PM. POP...70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-43 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5670-6170 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH
                    LATE.
VENTILATION INDEX...`EXCELLENT` (1060).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.05 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.
   24 HR TREND......5-10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-88 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AROUND
                    5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
VENTILATION INDEX...`POOR` (20).
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-40 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2910-3410 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY
                    AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION INDEX...`GOOD` (480).
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ049-054-055-062-181400-
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-LAPEER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE-CARO-SANDUSKY-LAPEER
331 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AFTER 10 PM UNTIL 11 PM...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL 2 AM...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY. POP...70 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
   24 HR TREND......5-9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING WEST LATE.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......730-930 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT...THEN...BECOMING WEST LATE.
VENTILATION INDEX...`POOR` (40).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.10 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 10 AM...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    UNTIL NOON...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2 PM. POP...70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-50 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2-6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6610-7110 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING WEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION INDEX...`EXCELLENT` (1150).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.10 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-31.
   24 HR TREND......9-14 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5-9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BECOMING
                    LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......670-870 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...`POOR` (20).
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-43 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2730-3230 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY
                    AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION INDEX...`GOOD` (370).
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-181400-
ST CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...
PORT HURON-HOWELL-PONTIAC-WARREN-ANN ARBOR-DETROIT-ADRIAN-MONROE
331 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AFTER 10 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL 2 AM...THEN RAIN
                    SHOWERS LIKELY. POP...70 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......8-12 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-90 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BECOMING
                    LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......620-820 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST LATE.
VENTILATION INDEX...`POOR` (20).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.10 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 11 AM...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2 PM...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 5 PM. POP...70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-45 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5-10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10
                    TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000-9500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH
                    BY AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION INDEX...`EXCELLENT` (1520).
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.25 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......740-940 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
VENTILATION INDEX...`POOR` (20).
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-39 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10-15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY
                    AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION INDEX...`FAIR` (240).
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

$$

JVC/HLO






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