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639
FNUS53 KAPX 302033
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
433 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...MUCH COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND CHANGING THE
RAIN TO SNOW. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS FOR THE SNOW...A DUSTING TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE WEEKEND.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-310900-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
433 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN. SNOW AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH INCREASING TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1750).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.30 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    45 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (3000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 39 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.22 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2100...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2200 UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....22-27...EXCEPT AROUND 30 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
                    DECREASING TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1680).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 24 TO 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (3000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 21 MPH BECOMING NORTH AROUND 9
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-310900-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
433 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    2400...THEN RAIN AND SNOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39...EXCEPT AROUND 41 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH THIS EVENING BECOMING NORTH
                    15 TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04-0.27 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN AND SNOW
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1100. SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    45 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (3000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 27 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 42 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.26 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29...EXCEPT 33-38 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
                    DECREASING TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1870).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 30 TO 39 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 64-69 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (3000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-310900-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
433 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN. SNOW AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......100 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.22 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SNOW AND RAIN
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 50 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (3000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 42 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.22 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2100...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29...EXCEPT 33-38 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
                    DECREASING TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1060).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 27 TO 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (3000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-310900-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
433 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN AND SNOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......100 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (990).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.20 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SNOW AND RAIN
                    UNTIL 0800...THEN SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    45 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (3000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 39 TO 42 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.21 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1900...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
                    2100...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-31.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    40 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 30 TO 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (3000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 24 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-310900-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
433 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN RAIN AND SNOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......100 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.14 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL 1200. SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (3000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 24 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 45 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.18 IN.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2100...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2200 UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....23-28.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
                    DECREASING TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 30 TO 36 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (3000).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SRF









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