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906
FNUS22 KWNS 231906
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR N-CNTRL SD SWD INTO CNTRL NEB...

...N-CNTRL PLAINS STATES...
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED REGARDING THE PROBABILITY FOR STRONG WINDS
AND CRITICALLY LOW RH TO OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CNTRL
PORTIONS OF SD SWD INTO THE NEB SANDHILLS REGION.  AS A RESULT...AN
UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL HIGHLIGHT SEEMS WARRANTED.  MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER THIS REGION FOR EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY YIELD
RH FALLING INTO THE MID TEENS OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE TO AROUND 25
PERCENT NEAR THE SD/IA/MN BORDER AMIDST STRONG SUSTAINED NWLY/S.

..SMITH.. 04/23/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0338 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY. AN ASSOCIATED ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM ND SEWD INTO THE UPPER-MS VALLEY...TO THE INTERFACE OF AN
ATTENDANT DRYLINE ORIENTED NE-SW TO THE TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
FARTHER E...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A BELT OF NWLY
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY WHILE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...S-CNTRL SD AND N-CNTRL NEB...
WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...W
OF A SFC TROUGH SHIFTING EWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH 25-30 KT FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM AGL LAYER
WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 20-30 MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/. THE
DOWNSLOPE REGIME WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER DAY OF WARM/DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER
CONDITIONS...WITH RH VALUES PROBABLY RANGING FROM 15-20 PERCENT BY
AFTERNOON. THE ELEVATED RISK AREA REFLECTS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OCCURRING ON WED/D1...WITH HIGHER TOTALS
POSSIBLE INTO NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF SD.

...NRN DELMARVA PENINSULA NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE NORTHEAST AS A BELT OF
STRONG NWLY FLOW SHIFTS NWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW.
DESPITE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ONLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER-50S N TO MID-60S S...THE EXCEPTIONAL DRYNESS OF THIS AIR MASS
/PW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.2-0.3 INCH/ WILL SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES OF
15-25 PERCENT. COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH
/MUCH HIGHER GUSTS/...AN ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT IS LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE.

AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK MAY ALSO EXTEND NWD INTO ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF WRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
ABOUT PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO OCCUR ON WED/D1...BUT THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCLUSION IN FUTURE UPDATES.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...





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