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866
FNUS22 KWNS 151800
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF ERN AZ...WRN/SRN NM...W
TX...SERN TX PANHANDLE...SWRN OK...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE CRITICAL AND ELEVATED AREAS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON
TRACK. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

..LEITMAN.. 04/15/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0401 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY...AS SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
TROUGH POSITION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LEAD
SYSTEM MOVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS.

...DESERT SOUTHWEST ENEWD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
A MODEST INCREASE IN WLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM ERN AZ INTO
WRN/SRN NM AND FAR W TX...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED
AS RH VALUES DROP TO 5-15 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST
FROM THE TX S PLAINS INTO SWRN OK...A STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP...WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED AS MIXING
DEEPENS WITHIN A DRY AIRMASS. RH VALUES OF 10-20 PERCENT WILL
COMBINE WITH THESE WINDS TO RESULT IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

FROM CNTRL/NRN OK NORTHEAST INTO CNTRL/ERN KS...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL JET REGIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH RH WILL BE
MORE MARGINAL THAN FOR AREAS FURTHER TO THE SW. THE ELEVATED AREA
HAS ONLY BEEN EXTENDED TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...WITH AREAS FURTHER
EAST AND NORTH LEFT OUT FOR NOW DUE TO RECENT MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...





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