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868 FXUS64 KFWD 182310 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 610 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 .AVIATION... CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY EAST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA AND INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND A MCV OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL REMAIN EAST OR SOUTH OF TAF SITES...WITH SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE REMNANT SURFACE FRONT DISSOCIATES AND RETURN FLOW CREEPS BACK INTO THE AREA. FARTHER WEST...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION LATE TONIGHT...BUT UNLIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...IT LOOKS LIKE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVENT THIS ACTIVITY FROM REACHING AREA TERMINALS. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/ THE REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS MCV IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND TAKING THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE WILL LINGER LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS HAVE ALSO BEEN THINNING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE CWA TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN A REPEAT SYSTEM TONIGHT DUE TO A LACK OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE HEADED OUR WAY. THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD TAKE ANY UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS OKLAHOMA...IF A SYSTEM CAN FORM. FOR THIS REASONING HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND REMAINS DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. RESIDUAL SOIL MOISTURE WILL SLOW THE WARM UP OF MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT EXPECT HIGHS TO BE BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM THURSDAY ON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT WILL INCH UPWARD A LITTLE FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY. 75 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 93 74 95 75 / 10 20 10 0 0 WACO, TX 72 94 74 95 73 / 10 20 10 0 0 PARIS, TX 69 91 70 92 72 / 20 20 10 5 0 DENTON, TX 70 91 71 93 73 / 10 20 10 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 69 90 73 93 73 / 20 20 10 5 0 DALLAS, TX 75 94 76 95 77 / 20 20 10 0 0 TERRELL, TX 72 92 74 94 74 / 20 20 10 5 0 CORSICANA, TX 73 94 74 95 74 / 20 20 10 5 0 TEMPLE, TX 71 94 72 94 72 / 10 10 10 0 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 93 72 94 72 / 10 20 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 30/69