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[Printable]
032
FXUS64 KFWD 221140 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

ALL AIRPORTS HAVE SEEN A FROPA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS 7-10 KTS. BRIEF...LOW VFR CIGS BELOW 040 WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MID MORNING AND WILL ADVERTISE A TEMPO BKN035. CIGS 040 OR BELOW
CAN LEAD TO SLOWER ARRIVAL/LANDING RATES WITH NORTH FLOW AT THE
BIG AIRPORTS.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT HAVE
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY THE PAST FEW HOURS. WILL REMOVE VCSH MENTION
FROM ALL TAFS AROUND DFW.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY THOUGH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT EAST THIS EVENING...THEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST BY/AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. SHOWERS DEVELOPED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LAGGING 850MB FRONT...ALONG WHICH A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY
WILL INTENSIFY TODAY. DESPITE MEAGER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850MB...THE
STEEPNESS OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE 5-10KFT AGL IS ENHANCING THE
MECHANICAL FORCING TO THE EXTENT THAT UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE MODE TODAY WILL BE SHOWERS...ALBEIT ISOLATED...BUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ADVANCING ELEVATED
FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS SUCH...THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT MEAN AN END TO RAIN CHANCES.

SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THOUGH
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. PLEASANT POST-FRONTAL DEW POINTS
MAY DIP BELOW 50 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE AUTUMN-LIKE
SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AS A RESULT...
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS...RECYCLING MILD AND DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND PREVENT GULF MOISTURE FROM
RETURNING.

THE UPPER LOW...NOW SWINGING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WILL
SEPARATE FROM THE POLAR FLOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGING FROM THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO
THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL RACE EASTWARD...LEAVING BEHIND THE TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE 49TH PARALLEL. ALTHOUGH RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
TEXAS EARLY IN THE WEEK...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS FEATURE IN THE PLAINS WILL EFFECTIVELY SPLIT THE UPPER
RIDGE. TROUGHINESS OVER TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK IS PROGGED TO
INTENSIFY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT ANY FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS IS UNLIKELY TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION. WITH A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AND EVEN DRIER MID-LEVELS...PW VALUES WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY LOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

25

&&


.CLIMATE...
OUR EQUINOX COLD FRONT IS NOTHING COMPARED TO THE ARCTIC AIR THAT
INVADED THE REGION IN SEPTEMBER 1983...RESULTING IN A REMARKABLY
EARLY FIRST FROST. ON THE MORNING OF SEPTEMBER 22...TEMPERATURES
PLUNGED INTO THE 30S THROUGHOUT OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.
THE CHILLIEST SPOTS WERE BRIDGEPORT AND LAMPASAS...BOTH OF WHICH
DIPPED TO 35 DEGREES.

THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX IS AT 929 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  63  85  62  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              89  61  86  60  87 /  20   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             82  58  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            86  59  84  58  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          85  56  84  56  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            87  63  85  62  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           85  59  84  58  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         88  61  85  59  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            89  61  86  61  88 /  20   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     86  59  85  58  87 /  10   5   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25






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