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[Printable]
018
FXUS64 KFWD 252021
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS TODAY AND HAS RESULTED
IN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY REACHING THE
90S IN THE WESTERN ZONES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. SO FAR
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF DFW WILL SET OR TIE ITS DAILY RECORD OF
89 LAST SET IN 1992. IF THE RECORD IS TIED IT WILL BE THE 4TH TIME
IT HAS REACHED 89 ON THIS DATE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND DESPITE THE WARM AFTERNOON...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR
TODAY/S READINGS...BUT RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH DFW AND WACO LOOK OUT
OF REACH. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE WINDS...LOW LEVEL
GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE...BRINGING AN INVASION OF STRATUS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS...BUT
READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE COUNTRY EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY. SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE EXITING
THE REGION WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN FROM SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND STALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL
VARY QUITE A BIT OVER THE CWA...WITH LOW 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT MID 80S ARE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE REGARDING THE EXACT STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF STILL ADVERTISES A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS FEATURE
IN THE MODEL IS STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB
AND INDUCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE TOWARD THE ECMWF THIS RUN AND
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE...BUT IT STILL DOES NOT GENERATE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT REQUIRED FOR CONVECTION. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY. IF THE ECMWF FORECAST DOES
VERIFY...CLOUDS WILL RETURN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...RESULTING IN WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST LOW TEMPS
AND COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE THURSDAY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES AND THE
GRADUAL INVASION OF A COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY...AND BY SATURDAY HIGHS MAY ONLY
TOP OUT NEAR 70 DESPITE SUNNY SKIES. LOW TEMPS WILL BENEFIT FROM
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NEXT WEEKEND...AND SHOULD FALL INTO THE
40S AREA WIDE.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1251 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SOUTH WINDS AVERAGING 8-12 KTS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND 30
HOUR TAF FOR KDFW WILL REFLECT WINDS OF 19016KT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING STRATUS WILL ARRIVE WELL AFTER THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL FOR
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

09/GP


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  90  66  86  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
WACO, TX              60  88  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
PARIS, TX             61  88  60  83  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
DENTON, TX            61  90  63  85  62 /   0   0   0   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          61  89  62  86  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
DALLAS, TX            66  90  66  86  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
TERRELL, TX           63  89  65  86  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
CORSICANA, TX         63  87  64  85  66 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            60  87  61  85  65 /   0   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  91  61  87  61 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /











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