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000 FXUS64 KFWD 261549 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 949 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009 .UPDATE... A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST EXCEPT FOR MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY GRIDS. 85/NH && .AVIATION... VFR CONDS CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS...AS BROAD SFC HIGH OVER W TX SHIFTS SE TOWARD THE TX COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NW FLOW 4-6 KTS...BECOMES S/SW TNGT. CIRRUS WILL BECOME BKN-OVC TNGT...ESPECIALLY WACO AREA...AS SRN STREAM UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE IN OLD MEXICO. 05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/ SUNDAY COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THIS MODEL RUN...AND HAVE SLOWED FRONTAL TIMING A BIT AND RAISED SUNDAY HIGHS FOR THE NORTHWEST ZONES...SINCE PRECIP SHOULD START LATER AS WELL. I AM STILL USING ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...AS GFS CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW BRING ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF TRACK...HOWEVER...IS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. ECMWF TEMPERATURES INDICATE RAIN...BUT GFS TRACK IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PRODUCE SOME MIXED PRECIP...AT LEAST IN THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST DAY THIS NEW UPPER FEATURE HAS SHOWN UP ON BOTH PROGS...HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCES OF RAIN AND FUTURE RUNS WILL SHOW WHETHER THIS IS AN ANOMALY OR A NEW SOLUTION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRY TO THROW VARIOUS WINTER WEATHER SCENARIOS AT NORTH TEXAS...THE LATEST BEING NEXT WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THE NEXT FRIDAY. YES...THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN WINTER WEATHER CAN HAPPEN...BUT AS EACH EVENT GETS CLOSER THE THE GFS HAS MODERATED. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE BETTER CONTINUITY IN ITS SOLUTIONS...AND UNTIL THAT CHANGES I WILL BE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF. LIKE THE BOY WHO CRIED WOLF...EVENTUALLY THE GFS WILL PROVE CORRECT AND WE WILL HAVE AN EVENT...BUT THERE WILL HAVE TO BE A CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS BEFORE I WILL BELIEVE IT. 84 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 41 71 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 10 WACO, TX 67 42 70 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 PARIS, TX 61 35 67 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 DENTON, TX 65 39 71 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 10 MCKINNEY, TX 64 38 70 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 DALLAS, TX 65 41 71 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 10 TERRELL, TX 64 40 70 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 CORSICANA, TX 65 43 69 48 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 TEMPLE, TX 66 41 70 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 79/85